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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Playoff Push 2023: Bucs Remain in NFC South's Top Spot

Tampa Bay's win in Green Bay kept them in a tie for first with the Saints in their division, and they have a head-to-head tiebreaker from a Week Four win in New Orleans

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Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season was a good one for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Most importantly, the Buccaneers took care of their own business with a 34-20 road win over the Green Bay Packers, which got them back to .500 at 7-7 and improved their record in conference games to 6-4. But they got some outside help, too, especially from the Carolina Panthers, who doubled their win total with a last-second 9-7 downing of the Atlanta Falcons. That sent Atlanta to 6-8, a game behind the Buccaneers and the 7-7 Saints, and also, significantly gave the Falcons a second loss within the division.

In a less obvious manner, the Minnesota Vikings' loss to Cincinnati helped the Buccaneers in a potential Wild Card scenario. And while the Bucs would have preferred that the New York Giants beat the Saints, their loss and the Chicago Bears' disheartening defeat at the hands of the Cleveland Browns puts those two NFC teams in a much more precarious position regarding the Wild Card chase.

By winning three in a row, the Buccaneers have made their final three games far more relevant in the NFC playoff hunt. Next up is a home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Bucs' final game against an AFC opponent. Elsewhere, a Saints-Rams game on Thursday night looms large, and we'll also get Packers at Panthers, Lions at Vikings and the Falcons at home against Indianapolis. Looking ahead to the weekend, here's how the NFC playoff race stands after 15 weeks:

  1. San Francisco (11-3), NFC West Leader

Nothing changed at the top of the NFC leaderboard as San Francisco easily rolled over the Cardinals in Arizona, 45-29. The 49ers had already clinched a playoff spot the week before with a win over the Seahawks, and their win in Week 15 made them NFC West champs for the second year in a row. In terms of tiebreakers for conference seeding, they have a 9-1 record against NFC teams – none of the other contenders have just one conference loss – and have head-to-head wins over Philadelphia, Dallas and Tampa Bay. San Francisco does have a couple challenging games ahead against Baltimore and a resurgent Rams team, but both of them are at home and their only remaining road trip is to Washington to face a floundering Commanders squad.

  1. Dallas (10-4), NFC East Leader

Thanks to a dispiriting 31-10 road loss at Buffalo by the Cowboys, Dallas and Philadelphia switched places in the NFC seedings in Week 15…for about 28 hours. Philadelphia had the top spot back until they too lost on Monday night in Seattle. Now the Cowboys are back on top thanks to a 7-3 record in games against NFC teams, compared to 6-3 for the Eagles. That's about as tenuous as a tiebreaker can get. The loss in Buffalo snapped a five-game winning streak in which the Cowboys had averaged over 40 points per game and had snatched first place in the East by drubbing the Eagles, 33-13 in Week 14. Despite its loss in Buffalo, Dallas became the third NFC team to clinch a playoff spot thanks to the Tampa Bay and Carolina wins. The Cowboys will find out quickly if their long winning streak is more indicative of their contender status than the loss in Week 15 because they still have to face Miami on the road and Detroit at home.

  1. Detroit (10-4), NFC North Leader

After losing to both Green Bay and Chicago in a three-week span, Detroit got back on track in Week 15 by blowing out the Denver Broncos, 42-17. The Lions haven't clinched the North yet but they're very close, with a three-game lead over the Vikings with three weeks to play. Both Lions-Vikings games are still to come, this weekend and in the regular season finale, so there is some drama left in the division race, particularly since Detroit's other remaining game is at Dallas while the Vikings will be at home against Green Bay. Detroit is trying to finish the job and win its first division title since 1993.

  1. Tampa Bay (7-7), NFC South Leader

The Buccaneers, Saints and Falcons all went into Week 15 tied for first in the NFC South, but only the Bucs and Saints emerged with wins. Had Atlanta won in Charlotte, they would have technically taken over the top spot in the division due to a better record within division games. Instead, they are now one game back and the Bucs have both a head-to-head win over New Orleans from Week Four and the best record in NFC South games, at 3-1 compared to 3-2 for Atlanta and 2-2 for the Saints. Tampa Bay also has a better conference record then both of those teams and better strength of victory and strength of schedule figures by a wide margin over New Orleans. After the Buccaneers take on Jacksonville this weekend, they'll stay at home for a rematch with New Orleans that could be the deciding factor in the NFC South race. Tampa Bay is trying to win its third straight division title.

View the top photos of Tampa Bay's Week 15 matchup vs. the Green Bay Packers

  1. Philadelphia (10-4), Wild Card #1

Like the Cowboys, the Eagles clinched a playoff despite losing in Week 15. Seattle's last-minute victory on Monday night marked the eighth straight time the Eagles have lost to the Seahawks, which is just weird. While that defeat has momentarily knocked the Eagles out of first place in the East, they will still take the division crown if they win their last three games, two of which are against the 5-9 Giants. Philly also has a home game against the 3-11 Cardinals on their docket.

  1. Minnesota (7-7), Wild Card #2

The Vikings' loss in Cincinnati on Saturday afternoon, in which the Bengals scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter then won on a field goal in overtime, didn't change their spot in the NFC hierarchy. They remained the second Wild Card team and the sixth-overall seed because Atlanta and Green Bay both lost to fall to 6-8. The Rams and Seahawks did catch them at 7-7, but Minnesota's 6-3 record in games against NFC opponents is, for the time being, a tick better than the Rams' 5-4 mark and the Seahawks' 6-5 mark. As noted above, two of Minnesota's last three games are a home-and-home duo against the Lions, which is both an opportunity and a significant challenge. The Vikings also play at home against Green Bay in Week 17.

  1. L.A. Rams (7-7), Wild Card #3

The Rams won for the fourth time in their last five outings after coming out of their bye week with a 3-6 record. The only loss in that span was a 37-31 overtime road loss at Baltimore in which they kept pace with the current number-one seed in the AFC. The Rams can't win the division, which already belongs to the 49ers, but they are in a strong position in the conference Wild Card race and have a home game next against the Saints. They have current possession of the last Wild Card spot because they swept Seattle in their head-to-head series. Los Angeles will finish the season with two road trips to play the Giants and the 49ers, and can only hope San Francisco has already sewn up the top spot in the NFC before Week 18.

On the outside…

  1. Seattle (7-7)

Following a four-game losing streak, the Seahawks kept their playoff hopes alive on Monday night when Drew Lock hit Jaxon Smith-Njigba on a 29-yard touchdown pass with 28 seconds left to stun the Eagles, 20-17. As noted above, the Seahawks have already lost twice to the Rams, so that could be tough to overcome in the Wild Card race, but their remaining schedule isn't too daunting. They play the 5-9 Titans and 3-11 Cardinals on the road and have a home game in between against the 7-7 Steelers.

  1. New Orleans (7-7)

The Saints may be just outside the NFC playoff field heading into Week 16, but they are very much in control of their own fate, as the saying goes. Just like the Buccaneers, they know they will win the division if they win their last three games, the key of course being the Week 17 showdown in Tampa. But New Orleans also gets a crack at prime playoff contender Los Angeles on the road this weekend and can avenge a Week 12 loss at Atlanta with a rematch at home in Week 18. In terms of the Wild Card race, the Saints' 4-5 record in conference games is a bit of a problem, given that Minnesota is 6-3, the Rams are 5-4 and the Seahawks are 5-5.

10-11. Atlanta (6-8), Green Bay (6-8)

Not much separates these two teams, except for the fact that Green Bay has already been eliminated from its division race. Atlanta is still very much in the thick of the NFC South chase and also has a head-to-head win over Green Bay in terms of Wild Card tiebreakers. Atlanta has lost control of the division race with consecutive losses to the Buccaneers and Panthers but does get one more crack at the Saints in Week 18. The problem for the Falcons is that the Bucs and Saints play each other the week before that, which will make it harder for them to catch both teams they are trailing.

What Lies Ahead for Tampa Bay:

The Bucs will go for their fourth straight win on Sunday against Jacksonville at Raymond James Stadium. In terms of tiebreakers, this is the least important game remaining on the schedule in the last three weeks, but the crowded field for both a division title and a Wild Card spot make every remaining outing critical. The Bucs will actually play two straight home games, with the Saints following the Jaguars into town, before finishing in Charlotte against a Panthers team that currently has a record of 2-12

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