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How Accurate was Mel Kiper's Mock Draft?

How did ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper's final mock draft stack up against what really happened?

What numbers will the Bucs' rookies be wearing in 2015?


In the months leading up to the draft, ESPN's Mel Kiper puts out several mock drafts predicting which players will land on which teams. Now that all is said and done, how accurate were his rankings?

At a quick glance at 2015, it appears not very. Kiper correctly predicted seven first-round picks, just 22 percent. He was able to predict the landing spots for Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Amari Cooper, Ereck Flowers, Trae Waynes, Danny Shelton and Melvin Gordon, but missed on the rest.

Kiper was much more accurate inside the top 10, though. He picked four of the top 10 players correctly, including three of the top four. Although he missed on the Jaguars' pick at No. 3 and the Falcons' selection at No. 8, he was still able to guess the correct positions.

Kiper also took a crack at the first three rounds, undoubtedly a much more difficult task. He predicted that the Buccaneers would take Winston at No. 1, and they did. In the second round, he had the team taking offensive tackle D.J. Humphries – right position, wrong player. And he missed both the position and player in predicting Florida State defensive end to become a Buccaneer in the third round.

Here's a look at Mel Kiper's final mock draft. The player actually selected at that position in in parenthesis.

1. Jameis Winston, Buccaneers (Jameis Winston)
2. Marcus Mariota, Titans (Marcus Mariota)
3. Leonard Williams, Jaguars (Dante Fowler Jr.)
4. Amari Cooper, Raiders (Amari Cooper)
5. Dante Fowler Jr., Redskins (Brandon Scherff)
6. Kevin White, Jets (Leonard Williams)
7. Brandon Scherff, Bears (Kevin White)
8. Bud Dupree, Falcons (Vic Beasley)
9. Ereck Flowers, Giants (Ereck Flowers)
10. Devante Parker, Rams (Todd Gurley)
11. Trae Waynes, Vikings (Trae Waynes)
12. Danny Shelton, Browns (Danny Shelton)
13. Vic Beasley, Saints (Andrus Peat)
14. Kevin Johnson, Dolphins (DeVante Parker)
15 (17). Melvin Gordon, Chargers (Melvin Gordon)
16. Landon Collins, Texans (Kevin Johnson)
17 (15). Todd Gurley, 49ers (Arik Armstead)
18. Breshad Perriman, Chiefs (Marcus Peters)
19. Nelson Agholor, Browns (Cameron Erving)
20. Byron Jones, Eagles (Nelson Agholor)
21. Andrus Peat, Bengals (Cedric Ogbuehi)
22. Damarious Randall, Steelers (Bud Dupree)
23 (28). Cameron Erving, Broncos (Shane Ray)
24. Arik Armstead, Cardinals (D.J. Humphries)
25. D.J. Humphries, Panthers (Shaq Thompson)
26. Marcus Peters, Ravens (Breshad Perriman)
27. Preston Smith, Cowboys (Byron Jones)
28 (23) Malcom Brown, Lions (Laken Tomlinson)
29. Jake Fisher, Colts (Phillip Dorsett)
30. Eric Kendricks, Packers (Damarious Randall)
31. Phillip Dorsett, Saints (Stephone Anthony)
32. Cedric Ogbuehi, Patriots (Malcom Brown)

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