Photos from the Bucs' practice on Wednesday, October 21st at One Buccaneer Place in Tampa.
Statistics can help illuminate the game of football…or they can take us down a misleading path. As Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head Coach Lovie Smith said: "I believe in stats, but it's [which] stats."
READ: REDSKINS SCOUTING REPORT
Smith, for instance, doesn't pay much attention to the NFL's defensive rankings, since they are based on yards, which he considers a meaningless measure. When he shares defensive stats with his team, he focuses on points allowed, takeaways, scoring on defense and red zone proficiency.
Here on Buccaneers.com, we unabashedly love stats, but we also understand the need to wield them wisely. Sometimes, we can get a better feel for why the team is performing as it is by going a little deeper into the numbers. Other times, we simply want to point out a few numbers we consider interesting, and hope you will find it interesting as well.
That's our goal with Football Geekery. Each week, we're going to give you a sampling of statistical and/or historical analysis, hopefully in a way that is relevant to the Buccaneers' current state of affairs. This week we look at what it could mean if the Buccaneers have not one but two players break the team's 10-sack drought. We then compare Doug Martin's fast start to others in team history and consider the history of consecutive road wins in the same venue. Let's get started.
1. Sack Duos
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have not had a player hit double digits in sacks in a single season since Simeon Rice had 14 QB takedowns in 2005. Could that streak end a decade later, in 2015. It's probably just as fair to ask who will get their first.
After five games, the Buccaneers have two of the NFL's top 22 sack artists. Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy is tied for sixth with 4.5 of them, while defensive end Jacquies Smith is just behind, with 4.0 to tie for 11th. Both Buc pass-rushers are on pace to get at least 13 sacks this season.
WATCH: THURSDAY'S PRESS CONFERENCES
Now, pace stats are little more than conjecture, especially when the season is only about a third of the way finished. McCoy and Smith first have to stay healthy for the majority of the remaining season in order to keep up their pursuit of double digits. Game situations can factor in, as well; late-game leads for the opposition can lead to more rushing attempts and fewer opportunities to take down the quarterback. Some bit of luck factors in, as well. A pass-rusher can do a perfectly good job of pressuring the quarterback, only to have the ball thrown away or a teammate get to him first. Sacks, like interceptions, can be a fickle statistic.
Still, by the raw numbers, both McCoy and Smith are nearly halfway to 10, with 11 games still to play. It's worth considering this: Could both players make it to 10 sacks or more? Obviously, they could. If they do, what would that mean for the Buccaneers' fortunes in 2015? How much of a correlation is there between having multiple 10-sack players and winning football games?
To address that question, we combed through the previous two decades of NFL football (1995-2014) to find every instance of a team finishing the year with at least two 10-sack defenders. We found 55 such teams, including six clubs that had three players hit double digits in the same season. Below is a list of all 55 teams, along with their respective win-loss-tie records, an indication of whether or not they made the playoffs and their defensive rankings in terms of points and yards allowed.
Teams with Two or More 10-Sack Defenders, 1995-2015
Year
Team
W
L
T
Playoffs?
Pts.
Yds.
1995
BUF
10
6
0
Yes
12
13
1995
PHI
10
6
0
Yes
15
4
1996
CAR
12
4
0
Yes
2
10
1996
SEA
7
9
0
No
24
24
1996
SF
12
4
0
Yes
4
7
1997
ATL
7
9
0
No
21
20
1997
NYG
10
5
1
Yes
3
18
1997
SF
13
3
0
Yes
3
1
1997
TB
10
6
0
Yes
2
3
1998
NYG
8
8
0
No
8
19
OAK
8
8
0
No
20
5
1998
SF
12
4
0
Yes
13
23
1999
BAL
8
8
0
No
6
2
1999
JAX
14
2
0
Yes
1
4
2000
MIA
11
5
0
Yes
3
6
2000
NO
10
6
0
Yes
8
8
2000
PHI
11
5
0
Yes
4
10
2000
PIT
9
7
0
No
6
7
2000
STL
10
6
0
Yes
31
23
2000
TB
10
6
0
Yes
7
9
2000
WAS
8
8
0
No
7
4
2002
CAR
7
9
0
No
5
2
2003
MIN
9
7
0
No
23
23
2004
ATL
11
5
0
Yes
14
14
2004
IND
12
4
0
Yes
19
29
2004
MIN
8
8
0
Yes
26
28
2004
NO
8
8
0
No
27
32
2005
IND
14
2
0
Yes
2
11
2005
NYG
11
5
0
Yes
14
24
2006
BAL
13
3
0
Yes
1
1
2006
OAK
2
14
0
No
18
3
2006
SD
14
2
0
Yes
7
10
2007
DAL
13
3
0
Yes
13
9
2007
NYG
10
6
0
Yes
17
7
2008
IND
12
4
0
Yes
7
11
2008
PIT
12
4
0
Yes
1
1
2009
PIT
4
12
0
No
12
5
2009
WAS
4
12
0
No
18
10
2010
IND
10
6
0
Yes
23
20
2010
NYG
10
6
0
Yes
17
7
2010
PIT
12
4
0
Yes
1
2
2011
NE
13
3
0
Yes
15
31
2011
PHI
8
8
0
No
10
8
2012
CAR
7
9
0
No
18
10
2012
DAL
8
8
0
No
24
19
2012
DEN
13
3
0
Yes
4
2
2012
STL
7
8
1
No
14
14
2013
BUF
6
10
0
No
20
10
2013
CAR
12
4
0
Yes
2
2
2013
KC
11
5
0
Yes
5
24
2013
NO
11
5
0
Yes
4
4
2013
NYJ
8
8
0
No
19
11
2014
BAL
10
6
0
Yes
6
8
2014
BUF
9
7
0
No
4
4
2014
DEN
12
4
0
Yes
16
3
Totals
541
337
2
35
11.4
11.3
You'll notice we've added a "totals" line at the bottom. The first thing this line does is aggregate all the win-loss-tie records into one, and the results are impressive. Those 55 teams combined to win 61.6% of their games. Those teams roughly averaged a 10-6 season. Of those 55 teams, 35 of them, or 63.6% made the playoffs.
READ: THURSDAY'S INJURY REPORT
We also averaged out the defensive rankings for those 55 teams and came up with nearly identical ranks for points and yards allowed. Essentially, having more than one 10-sack player means a team is likely to have a defense that ranks right around the top 10.
WATCH: DINI'S DEN WITH KENNY BELL
Just as with rushing attempts per game and its correlation with wins and losses, there's no evidence of cause and effect here. Winning teams are more likely to have late-game leads, which would lead to more passing attempts by the opposition and more opportunities to get sacks. However, that's not necessarily a critical distinction for the Buccaneers. If they get two or more players to double digits in sacks in 2015, there's a good chance they'll be playoff contenders, whether it's the wins that are causing the higher sack totals or vice versa.
2. On the Way to 1,000?
RB Doug Martin was one of the Buccaneers' top performers in the five games before the bye week. The fourth-year running back evoked memories of his incredible 2012 rookie campaign, scoring four touchdowns, breaking countless tackles and recording consecutive 100-yard outings for the first time since that debut season.
At the break, after five games, Martin had 405 rushing yards. That means he could get halfway to 1,000 yards on Sunday in Washington without even extending his 100-yard game streak. There seems to be a good chance that Martin will join James Wilder and Warrick Dunn as the only players in team history with more than one 1,00-yard season.
In fact, Martin's 405 rushing yards represent the fifth-best total ever for a Buccaneer running back through the first five games of the season. Three of the four players above him on the list went on to crack 1,000 yards. However, only one of the five backs that finish out the top 10 behind Martin made it to four digits. Here are the top 20 rushing yardage totals through the first five games of the season in Buccaneer history:
Player
Season
Games 1-5
Rush Avg.
Final Total
James Wilder
1985
526
4.38
1300
James Wilder
1984
521
4.13
1544
Jerry Eckwood
1979
452
4.22
690
Carnell Williams
2005
447
4.52
1178
Doug Martin
2013
409
3.53
456
Doug Martin
2015
405
4.50
??
Errict Rhett
1995
394
3.37
1207
Earnest Graham
2008
393
5.87
563
Gary Anderson
1990
357
4.25
646
LeGarrette Blount
2011
328
4.26
781
Mike Alstott
1999
326
4.72
949
Reggie Cobb
1992
324
3.52
1171
Michael Pittman
2003
323
4.54
751
Doug Martin
2012
323
3.85
1454
Ricky Bell
1979
313
4.47
1263
Warrick Dunn
1997
312
4.52
978
Nathan Wonsley
1986
311
5.65
339
Mike Alstott
2000
299
3.60
465
Ricky Bell
1978
292
3.84
679
Lars Tate
1989
282
4.41
589
Several of those seasons were interrupted by injury, including Martin's 2013 campaign, Graham's 2008 and Alstott's 2000. On one hand, it seems like a stretch to make a 1,000-yard prediction for Martin based on this list; only seven of the 20 seasons represented ended up making it to that plateau. However, it's worth noting that Martin himself is already 82 yards ahead of his 2012 pace and, more importantly, is averaging 0.65 more yards per carry than he did in that season through five games. That version of Martin caught fire in November; the current version might represent a steadier, more dependable presence.
3. Back-to-Back Victories
This weekend, the Buccaneers will head to the nation's capital for the second time in 11 months. Last November, Tampa Bay turned in its best performance of the 2015 season with a dominating 27-7 road win against the Washington Redskins at FedExField. Perhaps the memories of that outing will inspire confidence in a Buccaneer team looking to win consecutive games for the first time since 2013.
Whether by virtue of that confidence, a superior roster or simply the right bounces, a win at Washington on Sunday would be a notable achievement for the Buccaneers. Specifically, it would mark just the third time that Tampa Bay has won road games against a non-division opponent in the same venue in two consecutive seasons.
The Buccaneers have notched victories in consecutive seasons against non-division opponents 18 times in the past, including three instances of victories in three straight seasons. Most of the time, however, those runs have included at least one win in the Bucs' own home. Here are those 16 instances, with the two wins marked as either H for a home game or A for an away game:
Seasons
Opponent
Gm. 1
Gm. 2
1978-79
Kansas City
A
H
1979-80
N.Y. Giants
H
H
1994-95
Washington
H/A*
H
1995-96
Washington
H
H
1997-98
N.Y. Giants
A
H
1999-2000
Atlanta
H
A
2000-01
Dallas
H
A
2000-01
St. Louis
H
A
2001-02
Baltimore
H
A
2001-02
Cincinnati
A
A
2005-06
Washington
H
H
2006-07
Washington
H
H
2008-09
Green Bay
H
H
2008-09
Seattle
H
A
2009-10
Seattle
A
H
2011-12
Minnesota
A
A
- * Tampa Bay defeated Washington both at home and on the road in 1994, then won again when the Redskins came to Tampa in 1995*
The Bucs' most recent example of wins against a non-division opponent in consecutive seasons was actually one of those rare road-road pairings. The Bucs won at Minnesota in Week Two of 2011 and then again in 2012 in a Thursday-nighter in October. The only other such occurrence was the two wins in Cincinnati in 2001 and 2002, the latter during Tampa Bay's Super Bowl year.
