It's Week 14 in the 18-week NFL season, but from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' point of view they are already in the second round of the playoffs.
After dropping six of seven games, the Buccaneers had fallen to 4-7 in 2023, and even though that was still good enough to put them just a game out of first in the NFC South, they knew time was running out. As quarterback Baker Mayfield put it before Tampa Bay's Week 13 game against division-rival Carolina, there was "no slack" left in the schedule, no margin for error. That created a do-or-die, playoff-style urgency for the Buccaneers.
Now they have survived the first round, beating the Panthers 21-18, but as is usually the case in the playoffs, it only gets harder the next round. That's the case for the Buccaneers as they head to Atlanta to play the 6-6, first-place Falcons, who already beat them in a tight contest in Week Seven.
"We viewed [Week 13] as a playoff game," said Head Coach Todd Bowles. "From here on out, every game we play is a playoff game, and most of them are division games that we play, so it's really important for us to win those division games."
The Bucs rallied in Week Seven for a 13-13 tie in the final minute of the fourth quarter, but two red-zone trips that ended in field goals instead of touchdowns left them vulnerable to a late Falcons score. Indeed, quarterback Desmond Ridder hit tight end Kyle Pitts on a 39-yard pass with 40 seconds remaining, setting up Younghoe Koo's 51-yard game-winner as time expired. The Buccaneers know another tight game is likely in Week 14 and that this time they have to be the ones to make the critical plays in crunch time.
"Like every week, you have to make plays when it's time to make plays," said Bowles. "We had the game at the end, we didn't make plays, they made the play to win the ballgame. We have to make plays at the end to win the ball game."
Atlanta is coming off a hard-fought 13-8 win on the road against the New York Jets, which followed an important win at home against the New Orleans Saints, who are now 5-7 like the Buccaneers. The Falcons boast a top-10 defense in terms of both yards and points allowed and an offense that runs the ball extremely well. Bowles believes Head Coach Arthur Smith, now in his third season at the helm, has his team headed in the right direction.
"Arthur does a great job coaching them," he said. "They are very well prepared when they come out to play. They play with a lot of energy. They are division games, the record is out the window regardless of who you play in the division, it's going to be a tough game. We expect it to be tough on Sunday."
Playoff games usually are. Here are four storylines and four head-to-head matchups to keep in mind as the Buccaneers head to Atlanta and seek payback for their Week Seven loss.
TOP STORYLINES
A Chance to Take Control, for Both Teams – The Buccaneers don't necessarily have to win every remaining game to stay alive, as if they were already in the playoffs, nor do the Falcons or Saints. However, it's hard to overstate the importance of this particular game to Tampa Bay's chances of making it to the real dance. A loss would functionally put the Bucs three games behind the Falcons with four to go, since Atlanta would have a two-game lead on them and a hefty tiebreaker with the head-to-head sweep. The Falcons would also have a 4-0 record in the division, compared to 2-2 for Tampa Bay and either 2-2 or 1-3 for the Saints depending upon the outcome of their matchup with the Panthers. A win in Atlanta, on the other hand, would give the Buccaneers a share of first and control of their own postseason destiny. The Bucs would win the division if they won their final four games, regardless of what Atlanta or New Orleans did in their other games. If the Falcons also won their last four, the Buccaneers would take the division based on their record in common games – that is, a better record against the 12 opponents the Falcons also played.
Seeing Red – The previous game in Week Seven and the statistics through 13 weeks for the Bucs and Falcons suggest that a close game is likely. The Bucs are scoring 19.4 points per game while the Falcons have put up 18.8 points per game. Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 20.4 per game, compared to 20.0 for Atlanta's defense. If the game is close at the end, the battle that determines the outcome may be what happens when and if the Bucs' offense gets into Atlanta's red zone. For a good portion of the season, the Buccaneers had the league's top-performing red zone defense, in terms of percentage of drives insider their 20 that they allow to reach the end zone. Tampa Bay is still fourth in that regard, but it's now Atlanta who leads the league, allowing touchdowns on just 37.14% of opposing red zone drives. The overall NFL average in this category is 51.3%. Atlanta is also first in touchdown percentage on drives that broach their 30-yard line, at 30.6% compared to the league average of 46.6%. In addition, only 53.3% of the drives that have reached goal-to-go against Atlanta have resulted in touchdowns; the league average is 71.5%. The Buccaneers' offense has been up and down in both categories in 2023 but has struggled a bit of late and has dropped to 27th in the league. However, Tampa Bay did punch it into the end zone on two of their three trips inside the 20 last Sunday against the Panthers, which proved critical in a close finish. It likely will be in Atlanta, as well.
The Run Down – The last time the Bucs and Falcons played, at Raymond James Stadium, the visitors had a clear edge in the ground game. Even with rookie first-rounder Bijan Robinson held out for most of the game, Atlanta ran for 156 total yards compared to 73 for the Buccaneers. This is not a surprising outcome, given that the Falcons are ranked sixth in the league in rushing yards per game, while the Bucs are ranked 30th. However, the Bucs might be able to even the playing field in the rematch, as their ground game has finally started to get into gear in the back half of the season. Their last two games have been their two best in terms of the rushing attack, with 125 yards and 6.6 per carry in Indianapolis followed by 128 and 4.6 in the win over Carolina. The Bucs and Falcons don't exactly go about it the same way, though. While Robinson is the team leader with 756 rushing yards, Atlanta has more of a committee approach, frequently getting Tyler Allgeier (492) and Cordarrelle Patterson (130) involved, as well. Even quarterback Desmond Ridder has rushed for 180 yards and four touchdowns. The Bucs funnel almost all of their ground game through second-year man Rachaad White, who has 184 rushing yards over the last two weeks. He has taken 176 handoffs while the other three running backs on the team have combined for 60. Both teams' defenses have stopped the run fairly well, with the Bucs ranking 10th (99.0 yards allowed per game) and the Falcons ranking 15th (107.8). Atlanta leads the league in percentage of run plays called on first-and-10, so the Bucs' ability to keep them from getting going early could be critical.
Hoping for Reinforcements – For more than three quarters of their win over Carolina, the Bucs were down to just one of the five off-ball linebackers on their roster. Lavonte David (groin), Devin White (foot) and SirVocea Dennis (illness) were all inactive and fill-in K.J. Britt hurt his back seven defensive snaps into the game. That forced safety Ryan Neal to come into the middle and play linebacker the rest of the way, which he did rather effectively. Dennis is likely to be back in action this week but David, White and Britt will all be question marks. The Bucs are hopeful that David will be able to play after missing two games, particularly since he has a history of strong performances in Atlanta. Cornerback Jamel Dean has also missed the last two games due to foot and ankle injuries and remains a question mark headed into Week 14. With more time to plan, would the Bucs go into another game with Neal as the primary reserve, or even a starter next to J.J. Russell? The only other option on the practice squad is Vi Jones, who only joined the team two weeks ago and has yet to play a defensive snap at the NFL level. The status of David in particular, plus that of White and Britt, will be a significant concern for the Buccaneers this week.
KEY MATCHUPS
1. Falcons WR Drake London vs. Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis
Second-year wideout Drake London is the Falcons' top receiver, though the tight end duo of Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith are not far behind. The eighth-overall pick in 2022, London has followed a 72-catch, 866-yard rookie season with very similar production in 2023, hauling in 46 passes for 573 yards and two touchdowns. The 6-4, 219-pound London also starred in basketball, so he's excellent at positioning his body to beat defenders and high-pointing the ball on contested catches. He also uses his size and strength to beat press coverage and tracks the ball well on deep throws. Carlton Davis (6-1, 206) has the size to match up with bigger receivers like London and is always competitive at the catch point. Davis snared his first interception of the season in Week 12 against the Colts, setting up a very short touchdown drive, and he is second on the team with six passes defensed. London plays about 80% of his snaps on the outside but that's split fairly evenly between the right and left sides; when he lines up wide right he should encounter Davis, as the Buccaneers tend to keep their outside corners to one side of the field. London had six catches for 54 yards against Tampa Bay in Week Seven.
2. Buccaneers C Robert Hainsey vs. Falcons DL David Onyemata
One of the reasons for the Bucs' recent improvements in the ground game, according to Offensive Coordinator Dave Canales, has been how good of a job third-year center Robert Hainsey has been doing in getting the run plays "directed the right way." In two seasons of replacing injured Pro Bowler Ryan Jensen at the pivot, Hainsey has emerged as a reliable blocker week to week and the glue for a Tampa Bay line that has pass blocked well all season and is now getting some traction in run blocking. As a pass protector, Hainsey has been credited with allowing just two sacks over those two seasons combined. He'll have his hands full in down lineman David Onyemata, another savvy pickup in free agency this year. Onyemata is the anchor in the middle of the Falcons front, but he's more than just a space-eater. His 3.5 sacks rank third on the team and his 14 quarterback hits are first. He's also racked up 45 tackles and forced two fumbles. Over his last two seasons in New Orleans, Onyemata generated a 10.6% pressure rate, the eighth-best in the NFL among defensive tackles, according to Next Gen Stats. The Falcons have needed him to be a force in the middle in particular because Pro Bowl defensive lineman Grady Jarrett landed on injured reserve.
3. Falcons T Jake Matthews vs. Buccaneers OLB Yaya Diaby
Rather than hit a rookie wall, third-round pick Yaya Diaby is coming on very strong in the second half of his debut NFL season. He has five sacks across the Bucs' last six games and is now tied for second in that category among all NFL rookies. He also has seven tackles for loss also ranks near the top among first-year players and he has five QB hits and 16 QB pressures. On top of that, the coaching staff considers Diaby to be the best run-stopper among the team's edge rushers, so his playing time continues to grow as the season progresses. Diaby can win with power and speed, but this week he'll face a tackle in Atlanta's Jake Matthews who is among the best in the game. Matthews is a true iron man, having missed just one game (in his rookie season) and owning the longest active streak of games started in the NFL at 156. As one would expect from a player with that track record, Matthews is a detail-oriented, technically-sound blocker. At 31, he remains athletic enough to easily handle blocking on the run. Diaby has rushed from both edges of the line pretty equally this season, so at some point he should see action against Matthews, who will provide him with a stiff challenge as he tries to make his way to Desmond Ridder's location.
4. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield vs. Falcons S Jessie Bates
We don't generally think of one-on-one matchups with a quarterback, unless a team deploys a spy against a particularly mobile passer, because it's the job of all 11 defenders to stop what he is doing. In this case, however, Baker Mayfield will specifically need to make sure he's keeping the ball away from Falcons safety Jessie Bates. A home run of a signing in free agency this past spring, Bates has accounted for five of the Falcons' seven interceptions this season, and he took one of them back 92 yards for a touchdown. He also has three forced fumbles and seven passes defensed. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Bates has had a league-leading "ballhawk rate" of 23.0% since 2020, which measures what percentage of passes he disrupts when he's the nearest defender. He is also Atlanta's leading tackler, so completely keeping him away from the football is impossible. Baker Mayfield has thrown just eight interceptions this season, and never more than one in a game, and his interception percentage of 2.0% ranks 14th in the NFL. In the first Bucs-Falcons matchup, he threw for 275 yards and a touchdown and was picked off once…not by Bates. Mayfield has impressed in his first season at the helm of the Bucs' offense with his good decision-making and his willingness to put everything on the line when his team needs a big play. He'll face another gamer on the other side of the line this week in Bates.
