A look back at all of the match-ups between the Buccaneers and the Panthers.
































Statistics can help illuminate the game of football…or they can take us down a misleading path. As Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head Coach Lovie Smith said: "I believe in stats, but it's [which] stats."
Smith, for instance, doesn't pay much attention to the NFL's defensive rankings, since they are based on yards, which he considers a meaningless measure. When he shares defensive stats with his team, he focuses on points allowed, takeaways, scoring on defense and red zone proficiency.
Here on Buccaneers.com, we unabashedly love stats, but we also understand the need to wield them wisely. Sometimes, we can get a better feel for why the team is performing as it is by going a little deeper into the numbers. Other times, we simply want to point out a few numbers we consider interesting, and hope you will find it interesting as well.
That's our goal with Football Geekery. Each week, we're going to give you a sampling of statistical and/or historical analysis, hopefully in a way that is relevant to the Buccaneers' current state of affairs. This week, we note that Charles Sims is doing more per scrimmage touch than any running back in the league, and potentially more than any other back in Buccaneer history. We also look at another exclusive club of which linebacker Lavonte David is a part, and note that Tampa Bay's offense has improved more this season than at any other point in the last four decades. Let's get started.
1. Sims Making the Most of His Touches
As we noted on Monday, running back Charles Sims could become the first player in franchise history to average at least five yards per carry and 10 yards per catch for an entire season, with at least 25 of each. He is currently the only player in the NFL with that distinction.
When you put those two categories together, Sims is doing more with his touches than any other running back in the league this year. All the backs below are on pace to hit the minimum of 100 total touches by the end of the season
Most Yards Per Touch, NFL RBs, 2015
Player, Team
Rush
Yds.
Rec.
Yds.
Touch
Yds.
Yds./Tch
Charles Sims, TB
103
514
42
487
145
1001
6.90
Theo Riddick, DET
41
129
76
668
117
797
6.81
David Johnson, AZ
114
556
33
423
147
979
6.66
Danny Woodhead, SD
93
325
72
704
165
1029
6.24
Karlos Williams, BUF
87
493
8
93
95
586
6.19
If Sims can finish the season strong at Carolina on Sunday, he might end up with the franchise single-season record for yards per touch by a running back. His mark through 15 games is just barely behind the standard set by Michael Pittman in 2005, and Sims looks like a lock to be the first running back in team annals to record over 1,000 yards from scrimmage while averaging more than six yards per touch.
Player
Year
Rush
Yds.
Rec.
Yds.
Touch
Yds.
Yds./Tch
Michael Pittman
2005
70
436
36
300
106
736
6.94
Charles Sims
2015
103
514
42
487
145
1001
6.90
James Wilder
1982
83
324
53
466
136
790
5.81
Mike Alstott
1996
96
377
65
557
161
934
5.80
Bobby Rainey
2014
94
406
33
315
127
721
5.68
James Wilder
1981
107
370
48
507
155
877
5.66
James Wilder
1987
106
488
40
328
146
816
5.59
Warrick Dunn
1997
224
978
39
462
263
1440
5.48
James Wilder
1989
70
244
36
335
106
579
5.46
Gary Anderson
1990
166
646
38
464
204
1110
5.44
With a slight bump in his average in the season finale, Sims could become just the eighth running back since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to average at least 7.0 yards per scrimmage touch and gain at least 1,000 yards. He's currently in the top 10 in yards per touch during that time for running backs with at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage.
Player
Year
Rush
Yds.
Rec.
Yds.
Touch
Yds.
Yds./Tch
Ronnie Harmon, SD
1992
55
235
79
914
134
1149
8.57
Darren Sproles, NO
2011
87
603
86
710
173
1313
7.59
Ronnie Harmon, SD
1991
89
544
59
555
148
1099
7.43
Marshall Faulk, STL
1999
253
1381
87
1048
340
2429
7.14
Paul Hofer, SF
1979
123
615
58
662
181
1277
7.06
Jamaal Charles, KC
2010
230
1467
45
468
275
1935
7.04
Charlie Garner, OAK
2002
182
962
91
941
273
1903
6.97
Herschel Walker, DAL
1986
151
737
76
837
227
1574
6.93
Charles Sims, TB
2015
103
514
42
487
145
1001
6.90
James Brooks, CIN
1986
205
1087
54
686
259
1773
6.85
2. David Does it All
Since entering the league as a second-round pick out of Nebraska in 2012, Buccaneers linebacker Lavonte David has racked up 564 tackles, second in the NFL in that span only to Luke Kuechly's 582. Kuechly, David and D'Qwell Jackson are the only three players with 500 stops over the last four years, though Paul Posluszny could join them with seven tackles in Jacksonville's season finale.
READ: PANTHERS SCOUTING REPORT
But David hasn't simply been a tackling machine. He has also made many plays in the backfield and in pass coverage. His career marks include 12.0 sacks and 31 passes defensed, among other notable numbers. Jackson also has 12.0 sacks and 24 passes defensed since 2012; he and David make up half the list of players in that span who have at least 300 tackles, at least 10 sacks and at least 20 passes defensed.
Player
Team(s)
Tackles
Sacks
PD
Lavonte David
TB
564
12.0
31
D'Qwell Jackson
CLE/IND
541
12.0
24
Karlos Dansby
MIA/AZ/CLE
450
10.5
36
J.J. Watt
HOU
307
66.0
39
3. Better than Average
The Buccaneers head into their 2015 regular-season finale needing just 193 yards of offense to break the franchise single-season record in that category. They have 5,628 yards through 15 games, already their second-best mark behind the 5,820 put up in 2012. Though they face the NFL's fourth-ranked defense on Sunday, they remain a good bet to get those 193 yards and the record. The Bucs have averaged 375.2 yards per game this year, the Panthers are giving up 318.7 yards per outing and the first 2015 meeting between these two teams, in Week Four, included a 411-yard outing by Tampa Bay's offense.
Whether or not they get that mark, or potentially get to 6,000 yards for the first time in franchise annals, the Buccaneers have clearly fielded one of their most productive offenses ever in 2015. Of course, it's worth noting that the current NFL average for yards per game per team is 352.9, which would be a new league record, too. One has to account for the gradually increasing league-wide offensive numbers over the last four decades when determining how well the Bucs have done this year compared to their first 39 seasons.
Even with that caveat, however, the 2015 season has been one of the Buccaneers' best offensive campaigns, in terms of yards. Tampa Bay's per-game yardage total is 6.32% better than the league average, which is the second-best margin in team history. The Bucs have been better than league average just eight times, and at least five percent better just twice. Here are all 40 Buccaneer seasons, ranked by the difference between their offensive yardage output per game and the league average that year:
Season
Bucs
NFL
Diff
Pct.
2003
340.8
318.3
22.5
7.07%
2015
375.2
352.9
22.3
6.32%
2012
363.8
347.2
16.6
4.78%
2008
341.0
327.3
13.8
4.20%
1982
321.7
317.2
4.5
1.42%
1984
332.6
329.8
2.8
0.85%
2007
326.8
325.2
1.6
0.49%
1992
298.2
298.2
0.1
0.02%
1979
315.6
316.0
-0.3
-0.11%
2010
335.1
336.0
-0.9
-0.27%
1988
316.3
322.1
-5.8
-1.80%
1980
316.2
323.5
-7.3
-2.26%
1981
322.5
334.5
-12.0
-3.59%
2002
312.6
328.4
-15.8
-4.80%
2004
310.2
327.2
-17.0
-5.18%
1998
297.1
317.7
-20.6
-6.47%
1994
297.1
317.9
-20.8
-6.53%
2005
294.8
315.9
-21.1
-6.68%
1989
302.6
326.2
-23.6
-7.22%
2001
293.4
317.6
-24.2
-7.62%
2011
319.3
346.9
-27.6
-7.94%
2000
290.6
319.5
-28.9
-9.03%
1990
279.7
308.6
-28.9
-9.36%
1985
297.9
329.5
-31.6
-9.58%
1987
292.1
327.9
-35.8
-10.90%
1997
273.5
314.9
-41.4
-13.13%
1993
269.4
310.7
-41.3
-13.28%
1995
283.9
328.9
-45.0
-13.68%
2009
287.5
335.2
-47.7
-14.22%
1996
269.8
316.4
-46.6
-14.73%
1986
272.6
324.3
-51.7
-15.93%
2014
292.0
348.2
-56.2
-16.14%
2006
270.1
322.1
-52.0
-16.14%
1983
279.8
334.4
-54.6
-16.32%
1999
265.9
318.8
-52.9
-16.58%
1991
250.1
306.8
-56.7
-18.48%
2013
277.0
348.5
-71.5
-20.52%
1978
237.6
300.7
-63.1
-20.97%
1976
214.7
302.7
-88.0
-29.07%
1977
192.4
285.8
-93.4
-32.67%
The team has made a quick turnaround with the addition of such notable figures as offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and rookie quarterback Jameis Winston, plus a reworked and more effective offensive line. The 2013 and 2014 seasons are two of the franchise's nine worst offensive seasons, relative to league average, as seen above.
The Bucs improved from 16.13% worse than league average in 2014 to 6.32% better in 2015. That swing of 22.46 percentage points is the biggest from one season to next in franchise history. Previously, the biggest improvement came between 1978 and the team's first playoff season in 1979, when the offense improved from 20.97% worse than league average to 0.11% worse. That was an improvement of 20.86 percentage points.