Last year at this time, Team Writer/Reporter Brianna Dix and I handed out a couple of assignments to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2024 season. It was the Fourth of July week, just as it is now, in the dead of the last extended break for players and coaches before training camp, and Bri and I were discussing some of the statistical benchmarks we would like to see the team hit in the upcoming campaign. Basically, we targeted areas in which the Bucs hadn't been among the league's best in 2023 and set specific goals for them to hit in those categories in 2024. We were like professors handing out year-long projects.
Well, a year later, we can say that Bri's class gets an A on their assignment while mine gets a solid B.
Bri's ask was for an improvement on the team's success rate on run plays, and specifically on first downs. Any Bucs fan can tell you the team's ground game improved drastically in 2024, ranking fourth in the NFL after finishing dead last in both 2022 and 2023. It stands to reason that some of the underlying statistics made big jumps, too, and that was definitely the case for the Bucs' run success rate on first down. The Bucs finished last in that category, too, in 2023, and Bri asked for an improvement of roughly 17 percentage points. Well, the Bucs' figure was 24.4% in 2023 and it jumped up to 38.7% in 2024, for an improvement of 14.3%. That didn't quite meet Bri's goal, but we'll grade it on a curve because the improvement was so significant.
Meanwhile, I wanted the Bucs' third-down defense to return to the elite level at which it performed over the previous five years. From 2019, when Todd Bowles arrived as the Bucs' new defensive coordinator (he was promoted to head coach in 2022), through 2022, Tampa Bay's defense allowed a third-down success rate of 37.4%, which ranked fifth in the NFL over that span. In 2023, that number dipped to 40.9%, which ranked 23rd in the NFL. My specific goal for the Bucs' defense in 2024 was to allow a third-down conversion rate of 35.7%, and I chose that number specifically because it would have made Tampa Bay a top-five defense in 2023. Well, mission partially accomplished. The Bucs did improve in this area, though not as much as I had hoped for, allowing a 38.1% rate in 2024 to rank 14th in the NFL.
Well, Bri and I are back with new statistical goals in 2025, and we have added a third professor, Buccaneers.com Contributor Gabriel Kahaian. The Buccaneers were quite good in 2024, finishing with a 10-7 record and winning a fourth straight NFC South title. But the team's overall goal in 2025 is set even higher than that, and as any coach would say, there's always room for improvement. We're going to be specific about what those areas are.
This is the latest in our annual exercise of Roundtable discussions during the Fourth of July week. Here's a full list of the topics we are debating in this series:
Monday, June 30: Which Buccaneer will make the biggest leap in 2025?
Tuesday, July 1: What player would you steal from another NFC South roster?
Wednesday, July 2: What headline would you like to read at the end of the preseason?
Thursday, July 3: What specific statistical goal would you like to see the Bucs achieve in 2025?
Friday, July 4: Which Buccaneer will have the most surprising accomplishment in 2025?
It's time to set some team goals for the Buccaneers in 2025, and we want to drill down a little bit past the obvious stuff. So our answers are going to be "14 wins" or "Super Bowl championship," as fine as those goals would be. We're going to get a little more granular than that. And since the three of us are not duplicating answers, the order of selection could matter. We've been rotating that order all week, and Brianna has now moved back into pole position. Go ahead and get us started, Bri!
Brianna Dix: Increase Pressure Percentage on Four-Man Rushes to 35%
In 2024, the Buccaneers' quarterback pressure percentage was 38.8% according to Next Gen Stats (eighth in the NFL). When rushing four, it was 31.0% (16th in the league). Not a drastic dip but Todd Bowles expressed his desire to see the team's pressure frequency increase from four-man rushes, without having to send a blitz. On numerous occasions, Bowles was forced to drop linemen in coverage when the pass rush was not able to get home to try and disrupt offensive line's blocking assignments and it allowed other defenders to blitz from unexpected angles.
In 2025, I would like to see the team's effectiveness at rushing from four increase to 35%, helping out the second and third levels of the defense in Tampa Bay. A vital part of the unit's success at getting to the quarterback will be through incumbent starter Yaya Diaby and free agent acquisition Haason Reddick. I would love to witness both get double-digit sacks in 2025 to spur the defense. In March, Tampa Bay signed Reddick, most recently of the New York Jets, to a one-year deal. He hit double digits in sacks in four of the last five seasons – for three different clubs – and has generated 59.0 sacks and 121 quarterback pressures in his eight-year career thus far. From 2020-23, Reddick was one of the most productive pass rushers in the NFL. He tallied 50.5 sacks in those four campaigns, which ranked fourth among all NFL players in that span behind only T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett and Trey Hendrickson. Reddick also accumulated 83 quarterback hits and 51 tackles for loss in that span.
Last season, Diaby led the Buccaneers with 57 pressures and generated 13 run stuffs (loss or no gain). He was just one of eight edge rushers to record 50-plus pressures and 10-plus run stuffs (Myles Garrett, Jared Verse, Jonathan Greenard, Brian Burns, Greg Rousseau, Will Anderson, Maxx Crosby). Diaby forced quarterbacks to speed through progressions and consistently collapsed the pocket, channeling his power. This year, I am manifesting the unit's ability to pressure signal-callers without Bowles being forced to send a blitzer.
Gabriel Kahaian: Double Last Year's Interception Output on Defense
Bri's selection of generating more pressure with a four-man rush aligns perfectly with a statistical goal I would love to see the Bucs achieve in 2025. More pressure means more panic. More panic means more rushed decisions. More rushed decisions means more takeaways, specifically interceptions.
In 2024, Tampa Bay brought in seven interceptions— the fewest in a single season in franchise history. Several factors contributed to the lack of production, but injuries were the primary culprit. The team had to wheel out 16 different starting lineup combinations to get through the year, leading to them relying heavily on their depth for most of the campaign.
Tampa Bay is committed to rewriting the script in 2025. This offseason, the team has implemented joint positional meetings with both cornerbacks and safeties in attendance, a shift players believe is making a difference. Additionally, the team bolstered its secondary on Day Two of the 2025 NFL Draft by selecting Notre Dame cornerback Benjamin Morrison and Kansas State cornerback Jacob Parrish. Both rookies are highly thought of inside the building with Parrish being strongly considered to start at nickel. The final piece of the puzzle is staying healthy. Despite what 2025 holds, the Bucs can feel more comfortable with the depth behind if anyone were to miss time.
"Why double?,'" you ask. I believe 14 is more than an achievable number. The Bucs had the fourth-fewest interceptions among league ranks in 2024. If you were to add seven more, they would have been tied for sixth most. Since 2020, NFL teams have averaged just under 13 interceptions per year. Heck, Tampa Bay totaled 17 as recent as 2021, so this goal is completely realistic. Being able to find a way to give Baker Mayfield the ball back twice as often as the previous campaign would lay a great foundation to becoming one of the scariest teams in the league.
Scott Smith: Six "Quick-Strike" Scoring Drives
Let me explain what a "quick-strike" scoring drive is first. As defined by Statspass, it's an offensive possession on which a team scores with four or fewer plays. Do you know how many of those the Buccaneers had in 2024? One!
Remember, this was an offense that ranked fourth in the NFL in scoring, with 29.5 points per game. But that unit really had to work hard for its output. It had the third-most yards overall, plus the third-most passing yards and fourth-most rushing yards. It kept drives alive with a league-best 50.9% third-down success rate. It capitalized on its opportunities with a 66.7% red zone touchdown efficiency, fourth-best in the league. It possessed the ball for an average of 32:00 per game, third-best in the NFL.
All of that is great! Kudos to Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, et al. But wouldn't it also be nice to occasionally put up some quick points without having to fight so hard for it?
This is a combination of a lot of factors. One of them, Gabe has already touched on above. The Bucs were tied for 26th in interceptions last year and tied for 16th in takeaways overall. The best way to get a quick scoring opportunity is to pick off a pass deep in your opponent's territory.
In addition, as Mayfield himself noted the other day, the Buccaneers could use some more explosive downfield plays in the passing attack to go with their extreme success level in yards after the catch. If you want to score in four or fewer plays, it helps if one of those plays is a 50-yarder.
And finally, some more robust returns in the, uh, return game would help in this regard, as well. In 2024, the Buccaneers were 24th in the NFL in average drive start after a kickoff (29.3-yard line). They were also tied for last in punt returns of 20 or more yards, with zero. Give us a couple long returns on punts and kickoffs in 2025 and the Bucs will have more opportunities to get the ball into the end zone with less work from the offense.
And I'm purposely not asking for a miracle here. The highest total of quick-strike drives by any team in 2024 was 12, but the Green Bay Packers. We don't have to get there. The NFL average, so I'm only talking about slightly above average here. Give us a handful of shorter fields, and some of those thrilling Bucky Irving breakaway runs could finish in the painted grass.
Oh, and a year from now we'll be back with another report card on these statistical goals.