In setting up our Roundtable debate on Thursday about setting statistical goals for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2025, I reviewed predictions we had made on the same topic a year ago. I felt that Staff Writer/Reporter Brianna Dix and I had done a pretty good job in identifying areas for improvement and setting aggressive but achievable bars for the Buccaneers to clear. I gave Brianna an "A" for suggesting a jump in the team's success rate on first-down runs, which very much did happen. I gave myself a "B" for assigning a goal for the Tampa Bay defense on third down conversion rate allowed; there was improvement, but not as much as I had hoped.
Well, Bri and I also predicted some "surprise accomplishments" for Buccaneer players a year ago, the same topic we're going to tackle today for the 2025, with Buccaneers.com Contributor Gabriel Kahaian joining the discussion this time. Hopefully Gabe gives us a boost because, unfortunately, Bri and I both get a big honking "F" for what we predicted in 2024.
Bri's prediction was that both Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jordan Whitehead would finish the 2024 season with 100-plus tackles and at least three interceptions. Honestly, it wasn't that crazy of an ask. Winfield was coming off a first-team All-Pro season in which he cleared those statistical bars, and a whole lot of other ones, by a country mile. And the team was absolutely thrilled to get Whitehead back and were expecting big things after his two very good seasons with the Jets. Unfortunately, injuries derailed both players and the safety duo combined for 139 tackles and zero interceptions.
So, statistically, that was a giant whiff, but at least there was an understandable reason for it. I don't think there is any credible excuse for my prediction, which was that Trey Palmer would score two kickoff return touchdowns.
Wow. Obviously, my thought was that the NFL's new kickoff return process was going to lead to a jump in breakaway returns, and that if the Bucs got it right and Palmer was the man with the football, his breakaway speed would get him into the end zone, where no Buc has been on a kickoff return since 2010. Problem was, Palmer didn't even emerge as the primary kickoff returner. He got some reps back there as the team always had two return men in the "landing zone," but by the end of the year he had exactly one kickoff return, for 14 yards. The Bucs leaned on running backs in that role, with Sean Tucker getting a team-high 15 runbacks. Six different players returned at least one kickoff for Tampa Bay. None of them came close to scoring.
So, let's try this again and try to get our collective GPA up. The final topic in our annual Fourth of July week Roundtable series is, once again, a surprising achievement by a Buccaneer player. Here's the full rundown of what we have debated this week:
Monday, June 30: Which Buccaneer will make the biggest leap in 2025?
Tuesday, July 1: What player would you steal from another NFC South roster?
Wednesday, July 2: What headline would you like to read at the end of the preseason?
Friday, July 4: Which Buccaneer will have the most surprising accomplishment in 2025?
This can be, but doesn't have to be, a statistical achievement, like the two gems that Bri and I made last year. One of us could say that Mike Evans is going to break his own team record for touchdowns in a season (14), for instance, or that Haason Reddick is going to be the first Buc with double-digit sacks since Shaq Barrett in 2021. It could also be an award or some other form of recognition, like Lavonte David symbolically being voted into the Pro Bowl nine times to make up for past snubs. The goal is wide open; maybe we won't completely miss it this year.
And since the three of us are not duplicating answers, the order of selection could matter. We've been rotating that order all week, and Gabe gets to go first for our last debate. Go ahead, Gabe…we're all counting on you.
Gabriel Kahaian: Baker Mayfield Wins NFL MVP
It is hard to believe it was only two years ago that Baker Mayfield first joined the Krewe. He has become so ingrained in the community that he might be the first athlete who comes to mind when you think of Tampa Bay. Since arriving, Mayfield has posted his two best years as a professional, including a career-best in passing yards (4,500), passing touchdowns (41) and completion percentage (71.4%) in 2024. If this ascension continues, his 2025 could be one for the ages. I am calling my shot: Mayfield will be crowned next year's NFL MVP.
Entering 2025, Mayfield might not be the first name that comes to mind to win this award. Across the league, there's a familiar group of big-name quarterbacks who are typically favored to earn the title. To become NFL MVP, a couple things need to happen: you have to put up great numbers and your team has got to have a great record— both things I believe Mayfield can bring to fruition.
First, let's talk stats. I took the liberty and calculated the averages of the main stats from the last 10 NFL MVP's seasons, all by quarterbacks. We are talking from Josh Allen's 2024 campaign all the way back to Cam Newton's in 2015. In the past 10 years, the NFL's MVP averaged about 4,265 passing yards and 37 passing touchdowns and threw less than eight interceptions in the season where they took home the hardware. There were four instances where a player threw for under 4,000 passing yards but they did more than enough in the run game to warrant the accomplishment. Additionally, seven of the 10 threw for more than 35 passing touchdowns and seven had fewer than double-digit interceptions.
Mayfield is more than set up to achieve all these metrics in 2025. He is in prime position for another 4,000-plus yard season with one of the best wide receiver rooms in the league. The Bucs retained their entire offensive line, keeping the continuity from the previous season. Plus, Bucky Irving will have another offseason of development to build off his electric rookie season. Mayfield's interception numbers should also decrease next year, a point he has emphasized across the offseason. The one question mark is how the offense will look under Josh Grizzard. The good news is Grizzard was with the Bucs the entirety of last year, working as the passing game coordinator and a third-down specialist. Mayfield will have every chance to post eye-popping numbers, but when it comes to MVP consideration, nothing matters more than the win column.
It is pretty simple; if your team is not a top-two seed, you are not winning the NFL MVP. Nineteen of the past 20 award winners had one of the top two spots in their conference entering the postseason. Very often, the best statical quarterback does not claim that year's title. The past 10 MVP's teams averaged 13 wins each, with eight of them finishing as the number one seed. With that in mind, I think Tampa Bay is more than capable to reach those heights.
It is clear that Mayfield and the offense should perform to standard. The defense got upgraded too, with playmakers brought in during free agency and the draft. The Buccaneers are the only team in the NFC to make it to playoffs in each of the past five seasons. A great accomplishment for sure, but the building expects more. They are tired of being the underdog, the sneaky good team. This team knows how good it is and expects to put the league on notice, establishing itself as a powerhouse. Mayfield is an X-factor and the Bucs will be a force to be reckoned with. It would not surprise me in the slightest if Tampa Bay ended the regular season as the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NFC.
The Buccaneers' 50th season could be the perfect opportunity for Baker Mayfield to deliver the franchise's first-ever NFL MVP — and I'm all in.
Scott Smith: Calijah Kancey Becomes the First Bucs Interior Lineman with a Double-Digit Sack Season in a Quarter Century
Well, Gabe came out swinging! It's going to be hard to draw any attention after that one. Winning the MVP in a league that features Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow seems like a fool's errand, but can you argue with Gabe's logic? He's right that "league-leading quarterback numbers" + "top-2 conference seed" is the exact MVP formula, and can you really say those aren't possibilities for Mayfield and the Buccaneers?
Anyway, it's a good thing this isn't our "imagine a headline" Roundtable, because my editor would send mine back and say, "Too long, tighten it up." But I really wanted to get across what a landmark achievement this would be…and yet one that I think is definitely within the realm of possibility in 2025.
For the record, the last interior defensive lineman who had 10 or more sacks for the Buccaneers in a single season was Warren Sapp. You know, that guy in the Hall of Fame? He had 16.5 sacks in 2000, which was actually the team record for nearly two decades before Shaquil Barrett came along and had 19.5 in 2019. Marcus Jones also had 10.0 sacks that year, and he was originally drafted as a defensive tackle in 1996, but by that point in his career he had been converted to an end. Gerald McCoy came very close a couple of times, including a 9.5-sack season in 2013. If only we rounded these things up. Only two interior defensive linemen in franchise history have hit that mark; Santana Dotson also did it as a rookie in 1992.
Kancey is going to break that drought in 2025, as long as he has better luck in August and September than he has the last two years. As a rookie, a calf injury early in training camp cost him all that helpful practice time in August and though he did start the season opener he immediately re-aggravated the injury and missed the next three contests. Last year, in literally the very last practice before the season opener, another calf injury bit Kancey and he missed five games.
Despite that missed time in 2024, Kancey led the team with 7.5 sacks. He had a streak of four straight games with at least one sack in November and December. Kancey's 7.5 sacks in 12 games, extrapolated to a full 17-game season, would be 10.5. It's right there for him!
Now, the Buccaneers made a point of pumping up their edge rush personnel this offseason, adding Haason Reddick in free agency and David Walker in the draft. It might have been a more comfortable prediction to say Reddick would get to 10-plus sacks, given that he has done so in four of the last five seasons. But I'm going with a rising-tide-lifts-all-boats angle here; the Bucs will be more dangerous off the edge this year, and that will make it even harder for opposing offenses to account for Kancey and Vita Vea (7.0 sacks last year).
I've got to believe that staying healthy for the start of the season is a primary goal for Kancey this year and he'll do everything in his power to make it happen. That's no guarantee that he'll be able to stay on the field for all 17 games, but if he does I think he'll do something we haven't seen in Tampa in this millennium (which started in 2001, not 2000).
Brianna Dix: Chris Godwin Wins AP Comeback Player of the Year
Nothing would make me happier than to see Chris Godwin have a breakout campaign in 2025, post-injury, and earn Comeback Player of the Year at the NFL Honors ceremony. Godwin was placed on Injured Reserve last October after dislocating his ankle in the Monday Night Football clash with the Baltimore Ravens. At the time of his injury, Godwin led the NFL in receptions with 50 and in receiving first downs with 33 through seven games. Godwin was the league-leader in YAC yards and ranked second in the league with 576 receiving yards.
He was on pace for a career-best performance before his season prematurely ended. Godwin had reverted to a full-time role in the slot and had become Baker Mayfield's go-to target on third down. Whether boxing out defenders and working back to the ball on out routes and digs, or generating separation on options, corners and wheels, Godwin bolstered the offense. His physicality over the middle of the field and proficiency on stalk blocks played an integral role in the Bucs' offensive system.
The AP Comeback Player of the Year is an annual award presented by the Associated Press that recognizes a player who has demonstrated resilience and significant contribution after overcoming adversity, including injury, illness or other circumstances. Godwin worked his way back earlier in his career from a torn ACL-MCL that he suffered in 2021, and he is as tough as they come both mentally and physically. The Penn State product has been vigorously rehabbing, and the team is hopeful he will be ready to go by Week One. If Godwin has a season on par with the prolific one he put on the grass prior to the ankle injury, there is no one more deserving than Godwin for this compelling honor.
