Most NFL mock drafts are constructed through the process of identifying the top depth chart needs for each team and then matching those needs, pick by pick, with the best available players at those positions. It's a logical way to make predictions, given that actual information about what NFL general managers plan to do is scarce. And it's this process that produces, for example, the now-consensus public opinion that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be targeting an offensive tackle with the 14th-overall pick.
On the evening of the actual NFL draft, the picks that draw the most surprised reactions are the ones that deviate from what were widely considered a team's targeted position or positions. Sometimes this reveals that team officials had their needs prioritized differently than the analysts did. Sometimes it indicates that a team simply thought an available player was too good to pass up, regardless of need.
Consider the Cleveland Browns' selection of Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward with the fourth-overall pick in the 2018 draft. After the first three picks went the way many expected, beginning with the Browns' own selection of quarterback Baker Mayfield first overall, it seemed logical that Cleveland would go with either North Carolina State edge rusher Bradley Chubb or Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson. Those were commonly considered positions of need for Cleveland, but post-draft comments from then-Browns Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams indicated that the team thought the more urgent need in the rush-and-cover combination on defense was at the back end.
And maybe the Browns simply thought Ward was the best player on their board, period. According to Buccaneers General Manager Jason Licht, that simple fact is an important consideration in every draft.
"Sometimes the best picks have been the ones that weren't a position of need but it clearly was the best player, and a year down from the road you're very happy and you can't see life without that particular play," said Licht during his annual pre-draft press conference, this time held by videoconference from his home. He was specifically asked if he would go so far as to use the 14th pick on one of the draft's top receivers, even given the presence of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the roster.
"Needs change quickly from April/May to July/August/September," Licht continued. "It wouldn't be a bad thing to have another great receiver on this team. I think Bruce [Arians] and Byron [Leftwich] and Tom [Brady] would find a way to get that player involved and it would be an asset for us."
A year ago, the Buccaneers had no problem marrying need and best player available when they focused in on LSU linebacker Devin White and then landed their man. Of course, that's a lot easier to predict when you're picking fifth, especially when the first two picks (Kyler Murray and Nick Bosa) were all but locked in before the draft. As success rates of mock drafts show every year, the draft usually starts to deviate in unexpected ways before its even out of the top 10.
That's why Licht has to feel comfortable with how he and Arians and their staffs have arranged their draft boards and he has to be ready to stick to their rankings even if the best players available are not what was anticipated. In 2017, for example, Alabama tight end O.J. Howard was widely regarded as a potential top-10 pick but the Bucs landed him at number 19. Licht and his staff had mocked out just such a scenario and were ready for it, but it's doubtful that was the most expected outcome.
"A lot of things go through your mind," said Licht. "That's why you have to stack the board correctly in your mind, in our minds, Bruce and I at the end, how we like these players. You take need into effect when you stack the board, but you don't want to stack a player at a position of need too far above a player who is maybe a little bit better at his position."
View the evolution of the Buccaneers' uniforms over time.
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 24: Quarterback Doug Williams #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers drops back to throw the ball against the Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Stadium on September 24, 1978 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 14-9. (photo by Allen's Studio/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 1: Quarterback Doug Williams #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks to throw the ball against the Detroit Lions at Tampa Stadium on September 1,1979 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 31-16. (photo by Allen's Studio/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
CHICAGO, IL - SEPTEMBER 30: Quarterback Doug Williams #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in action against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on September 30, 1979 in Chicago, Illinois. The Buccaneers won 17-30. (photo by Scott Cunningham/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - OCTOBER 7: Quarterback Doug Williams #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks to pass against the New York Giants at Giants Stadium on October 7, 1979 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Buccaneers lost 14-17. (photo by Scott Cunningham/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 12: Defensive end Lee Roy Selmon #63 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers leaps over the tackle against the Green Bay Packers at Tampa Stadium on October 12, 1980 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers tied 14-14 (OT). (photo by Allen's Studio/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 9: Quarterback Doug Williams #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks to pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Stadium on November 9, 1980 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers lost 21-24. (photo by Allen's Studio/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
MILWAUKEE, WI - NOVEMBER 30: Quarterback Doug Williams #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers runs the ball against the Green Bay Packers at Milwaukee County Stadium on November 30, 1980 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Buccaneers won 20-17. (photo by Allen's Studio/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
PONTIAC, MI - DECEMBER 14: Defensive end Lee Roy Selmon #63 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in action against the Detroit Lions at Pontiac Silverdome on December 14, 1980 in Pontiac, Michigan. The Buccaneers lost 14-27. (photo by Allen's Studio/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 22: Quarterback Doug Williams #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers runs the ball against the Green Bay Packers at Tampa Stadium on November 22, 1981 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 37-3. (photo by Allen's Studio/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 22: Quarterback Doug Williams #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers runs the ball against the Green Bay Packers at Tampa Stadium on November 22, 1981 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 37-3. (photo by Allen's Studio/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 7: Defensive end Lee Roy Selmon #63 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in action against the Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Stadium on October 7, 1984 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 35-31. (photo by Allen's Studio/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
SAN FRANSISCO, CA - OCTOBER 23: Safety John Lynch #47 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park on October 23, 1994 in San Francisco, California. The Buccaneers lost 16-41. (photo by Allen Dean Steele/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 24: Linebacker Derrick Brooks #55 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers gets set against the Washington Redskins at Tampa Stadium on September 24, 1995 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 14-6. (photo by Marty Morrow/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TEMPE, AZ - OCTOBER 20: Fullback Mike Alstott #40 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Arizona Cardinals at Sun Devil Stadium on October 20, 1996 in Tempe, Arizona. The Buccaneers lost 9-13. (photo by Marty Morrow/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
GREEN BAY, WI - OCTOBER 27: Linebacker Derrick Brooks #55 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in action against the Green Bay Packers at Tampa Stadium on October 27, 1996 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Buccaneers lost 7-13. (photo by Marty Morrow/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
CHICAGO, IL - NOVEMBER 3: Safety John Lynch #47 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers gets set against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on November 3, 1996 in Chicago, Illinois. The Buccaneers lost 10-13. (photo by Marty Marrow/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 22: Safety John Lynch #47 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Chicago Bears at Tampa Stadium on December 22, 1996 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 34-19. (photo by Marty Morrow/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 28: Fullback Mike Alstott #40 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Arizona Cardinals at Houlihan's Stadium on September 28, 1997 in Tampa, Florida. Buccaneers won 19-18. (photo by Al Messerschmidt/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 12: Fullback Mike Alstott #40 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers carries the ball against the Detroit Lions at Houlihan's Stadium on October 12, 1997 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers lost 9-27. (photo by AL Messerschmidt/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
CHICAGO, IL - NOVEMBER 29: Linebacker Shelton Quarles #53 and Cornerback Donnie Abraham #21 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrate against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on November 29, 1998 in Chicago, Illinois. The Buccaneers won 31-17. (photo by Robert Rogers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 7: Defensive end Regan Upshaw #91 and Defensive Tackle Warren Sapp #99 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in action against the Green Bay Packers at Raymond James Stadium on December 7, 1998 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 24-22. (photo by William Garrow/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
OAKLAND, CA - AUGUST 24: Linebacker Derrick Brooks #55 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers attempts to make a tackle during a preseason game against the Oakland Raiders at Oakland-Alameda County Stadium on August 24, 1998 in Oakland, California. The Buccaneers won 41-7. (photo by Robbie Rogers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 4: Defensive tackle Warren Sapp #99 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers runs onto the field prior to the game against the New York Giants at Raymond James Stadium on October 4, 1998 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 20-3. (photo by Robert Rogers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 4: Linebacker Derrick Brooks #55 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in action against the New York Giants at Raymond James Stadium on October 4, 1998 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 20-3. (photo by Robert Rogers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 4: Linebacker Shelton Quarles #53 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blocks against the New York Giants at Raymond James Stadium on October 4, 1998 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 20-3. (photo by Russ Phillips/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 1: Linebacker Shelton Quarles #53 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in action against the Minnesota Vikings at Raymond James Stadium on November 1, 1998 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 27-24. (photo by Robbie Roberts/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 1: Linebacker Shelton Quarles #53 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers gets set against the Minnesota Vikings at Raymond James Stadium on November 1, 1998 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 27-24. (photo by Eric Larson/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 20: Defensive tackle Warren Sapp #99 and Defensive end Regan Upshaw #91 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Chicago Bears at Raymond James Stadium on September 20, 1998 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 27-15. (photo by Robert Rogers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
JACKSONVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 15: Defensive tackle Warren Sapp #99 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in action against the Jacksonville Jaguars at ALLTEL Stadium on November 15, 1998 in Jacksonville, Florida. The Buccaneers lost 24-29. (photo by William Garrow/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
LANDOVER, MD - DECEMBER 19: Cornerback Ronde Barber #20 and Cornerback Donnie Abraham #21 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Washington Redskins at Jack Kent Cooke Stadium on December 19, 1998 in Landover, Maryland. The Buccaneers lost 16-20. (photo by Robert Rogers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 13: Safety John Lynch #47 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers runs the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Raymond James Stadium on December 13, 1998 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 16-3. (photo by Robert Rogers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 22: Linebacker Shelton Quarles #53 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in action against the Detroit Lions at Raymond James Stadium on November 22, 1998 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers lost 25-28. (photo by William Garrow/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 1: Fullback Mike Alstott #40 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers carries the ball against the Minnesota Vikings at Raymond James Stadium on November 1, 1998 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 27-24. (photo by William Garrow/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
CHICAGO, IL - NOVEMBER 29: Fullback Mike Alstott #40 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers runs the ball against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on November 29, 1998 in Chicago, Illinois. The Buccaneers won 31-17. (photo by Robert Rogers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
9/10/2000.- Tampa - Bucs CB Ronde Barber (20) celebrates his second quarter touchdown on a fumble recovery in the endzone.
LANDOVER, MD - OCTOBER 1: Defensive Tackle Warren Sapp #99 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blocks against the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field on October 1, 2000 in Landover, Maryland. The Buccaneers lost 17-20. (photo by William Garrow/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
CLEVELAND, OH - AUGUST 18: Linebacker Shelton Quarles #53 and teammates of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Cleveland Browns during a preseason game at Cleveland Brown Stadium on August 18, 2001 in Cleveland, Ohio. Buccaneers lost 6-7. (photo by Tom Wagner/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - AUGUST 25: Defensive tackle Warren Sapp #99 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sacks the Quarterback Drew Bledsoe #11 against the New England Patriots at Raymond James Stadium on August 25, 2001 in Tampa, Florida. Tampa Bay won 20-3. (photo by Chris Livingston/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - AUGUST 25: Defensive tackle Warren Sapp #99 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates on the field against the New England Patriots at Raymond James Stadium on August 25, 2001 in Tampa, Florida. Tampa Bay won 20-3. (photo by Russ Phillips/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 7: Linebacker Shelton Quarles #53 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers runs with the ball against the Green Bay Packers at Raymond James Stadium on October 7, 2001 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 14-10. (photo by Andreas Asturias/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 7: Defensive tackle Warren Sapp #99 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in action against the Green Bay Packers at Raymond James Stadium on October 7, 2001 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 14-10. (photo by Tom Wagner/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 21: Defensive tackle Warren Sapp #99 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Raymond James Stadium on October 21, 2001 in Tampa. Florida. Buccaneers lost 10-17. (photo by Tom Wagner/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
SAN DIEGO, CA - JANUARY 26: Cornerback Ronde Barber #20 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Oakland Raiders during the Super Bowl XXXVII at Qualcomm Stadium on January 26, 2003 in San Diego, California. The Buccaneers won 48-21. (Tom Wagner/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
1/15/2000.- -.TAMPA.CAPTION INFO:.Washington Redskins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. on Saturday, January 15, 2000 NFC Divisional Playoff Game: Newton Tampa Bay Buc Safety John Lynch celebrates after the Redskins failed to convert a field goal in the final minutes of the game sealing the Bucs victory 14-13 over the Redskins.
KANSAS CITY, MO - AUGUST 21: Linebacker Shelton Quarles #53 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers comes up with a loose ball against the Kansas City Chiefs on August 21, 1999 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The Buccaneers won 17-7. (photo by Robert Rogers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
SAN DIEGO, CA - JANUARY 26: Defensive tackle Warren Sapp #99 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates against the Oakland Raiders during the Super Bowl XXXVII at Qualcomm Stadium on January 26, 2003 in San Diego, California. The Buccaneers won 48-21. (Tom Wagner/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 2: Cornerback Ronde Barber #20 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium on November 2, 2003 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers lost 14-17. (photo by Tom Wagner/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 21: Linebacker Derrick Brooks #55 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers huddles his teammates before a game against the San Diego Chargers at Raymond James Stadium on December 21, 2008 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers lost 41-24. (photo by Matt May/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
OCTOBER 18, 2009, TAMPA, FLORIDA: Cornerback Ronde Barber #20 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on October 18, 2009. The Buccaneers lost 28-21. Photo by Matt May/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
JANUARY 3, 2010, TAMPA, FLORIDA: Cornerback Ronde Barber #20 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on January 3, 2010. The Buccaneers lost 20-10 . Photo by Jeff Griffith/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
MIAMI GARDENS, FL - AUGUST 10: Linebacker Lavonte David #54 and Cornerback Anthony Gaitor #26 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrate an interception by David during the preseason game against the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium on August 10, 2012 in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Buccaneers won 20-7. (photo by Matt May/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
MIAMI GARDENS, FL - AUGUST 10: Linebacker Lavonte David #54 and Cornerback Anthony Gaitor #26 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrate an interception by David during the preseason game against the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium on August 10, 2012 in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Buccaneers won 20-7. (photo by Matt May/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - AUGUST 24: Linebacker Lavonte David #54 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the preseason game against the New England Patriots at Raymond James Stadium on August 24, 2012 in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 30-28. (photo by Jason Parkhurst/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 9: Wide Receiver Vincent Jackson #83 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game against the Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium on September 9, 2012, in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 16-10. (photo by Mike Carlson/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 9: Linebacker Lavonte David #54 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game against the Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium on September 9, 2012, in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 16-10. (photo by Matt May/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 23: Linebacker Lavonte David #54 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers makes a tackle during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Cowboys Stadium on September 23, 2012, in Arlington, Texas. The Buccaneers lost 16-10. (photo by Matt May/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 23: Wide Receiver Vincent Jackson #83 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers catches a pass during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Cowboys Stadium on September 23, 2012, in Arlington, Texas. The Buccaneers lost 16-10. (photo by Matt May/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 30: Wide Receiver Vincent Jackson #83 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game against the Washington Redskins at Raymond James Stadium on September 30, 2012, in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers lost 24-22. (photo by Matt May/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 11: Wide Receiver Vincent Jackson #83 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game against the San Diego Chargers at Raymond James Stadium on November 11, 2012, in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 34-24. (photo by Jeff Griffith/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
DENVER, CO - DECEMBER 2: Wide Receiver Vincent Jackson #83 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High on December 2, 2012, in Denver, Colorado. The Buccaneers lost 31-23. (photo by Mike Carlson/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 11: Linebacker Lavonte David #54 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game against the Miami Dolphins at Raymond James Stadium on November 11, 2013, in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 22-19. (photo by Jason Parkhurst/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - AUGUST 29: Quarterback Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the preseason game against the Cleveland Browns at Raymond James Stadium on August 29, 2015, in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers lost 31-7. (photo by Mike Carlson/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
NEW ORLEANS, LA - SEPTEMBER 20: Quarterback Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on September 20, 2015, in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Buccaneers won 26-19. (photo by Mike Carlson/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
HOUSTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 27: Defensive Tackle Gerald McCoy #93 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pressures the quarterback during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on September 27, 2015, in Houston, Texas. The Buccaneers lost 19-9. (photo by Matt May/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 4: Defensive Tackle Gerald McCoy #93, Defensive End William Gholston #92 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game against the Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium on October 4, 2015, in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers lost 37-23. (photo by Mike Carlson/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 27: Defensive Tackle Gerald McCoy #93 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates during the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Raymond James Stadium on November 27, 2016, in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 14-5. (photo by Jason Parkhurst/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - JANUARY 1: Defensive Tackle Gerald McCoy #93 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game against the Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium on January 1, 2017, in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won 17-16. (photo by Matt May/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
JACKSONVILLE, FL - AUGUST 17: Linebacker Lavonte David #54 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field on August 17, 2017, in Jacksonville, Florida. The Buccaneers won 12-8. (photo by Mike Carlson/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
GLENDALE, AZ - OCTOBER 15: Linebacker Lavonte David #54 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium on October 15, 2017, in Glendale, Arizona. The Buccaneers lost 38-33. (photo by Jason Parkhurst/Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 24, 2018 - Wide Receiver Chris Godwin #12 during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Pittsburgh Steelers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Buccaneers lost 30-27. Photo By Mike Carlson/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 21, 2018 - Linebacker Lavonte David #54, Safety Isaiah Johnson #39 and Defensive End Jason Pierre-Paul #90 during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cleveland Browns at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Buccaneers won 26-23. Photo By Matt May/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
CINCINNATI, OH - OCTOBER 28, 2018 - Linebacker Lavonte David #54 during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. The Buccaneers lost 37-34. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 11, 2018 - Wide Receiver Chris Godwin #12 during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Redskins at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Buccaneers lost 16-3. Photo By Mike Carlson/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 11, 2018 - Wide Receiver Chris Godwin #12 during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Redskins at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Buccaneers lost 16-3. Photo By Mike Carlson/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 25, 2018 - Wide Receiver Mike Evans #13 during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Buccaneers won 27-9. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 02, 2018 - Wide Receiver Chris Godwin #12 during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Buccaneers won 24-17. Photo By Matt May/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 09, 2018 - Defensive End Jason Pierre-Paul #90, Linebacker Adarius Taylor #53, Linebacker Lavonte David #54, Guard/Center Ali Marpet #74, and Wide Receiver Mike Evans #13 before the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Buccaneers lost 28-14. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 09, 2018 - Wide Receiver Mike Evans #13 during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Buccaneers lost 28-14. Photo By Matt May/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
BALTIMORE, MD - DECEMBER 16, 2018 - Wide Receiver Mike Evans #13 during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. The Buccaneers lost 20-12. Photo By Mike Carlson/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 30, 2018 - Wide Receiver Mike Evans #13 during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Buccaneers lost 34-32. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 30, 2018 - Wide Receiver Mike Evans #13 during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Buccaneers lost 34-32. Photo By Mike Carlson/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 30, 2018 - Wide Receiver Chris Godwin #12 during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Buccaneers lost 34-32. Photo By Mike Carlson/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL. - SEPTEMBER 08, 2019 - Wide Receiver Chris Godwin #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before the game between the San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers lost the game, 31-17. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL. - SEPTEMBER 08, 2019 - Inside Linebacker Lavonte David #54 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game between the San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers lost the game, 31-17. Photo By Matt May/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 08, 2019 - Linebacker Lavonte David #54 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers lost the game 31-17. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
CHARLOTTE, NC - SEPTEMBER 12, 2019 - Wide Receiver Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. The Buccaneers won the game, 20-14. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
CHARLOTTE, NC - SEPTEMBER 12, 2019 - Inside Linebacker Lavonte David #54 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. The Buccaneers won the game, 20-14. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
CHARLOTTE, NC - SEPTEMBER 12, 2019 - Wide Receiver Chris Godwin #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. The Buccaneers won the game, 20-14. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 22, 2019 - Guard Ali Marpet #74, Inside Linebacker Lavonte David #54, Running Back Dare Ogunbowale #44, Wide Receiver Mike Evans #13, and Defensive End Carl Nassib #94 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game between the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers lost the game, 32-31. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 22, 2019 - Quarterback Jameis Winston #3, Defensive End Carl Nassib #94, Wide Receiver Mike Evans #13, Running Back Dare Ogunbowale #44, Inside Linebacker Lavonte David #54, and Guard Ali Marpet #74 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game between the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers lost the game, 32-31. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 22, 2019 - Wide Receiver Chris Godwin #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game between the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers lost the game, 32-31. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 22, 2019 - Wide Receiver Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game between the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers lost the game, 32-31. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 22, 2019 - Wide Receiver Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game between the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers lost the game, 32-31. Photo By Mike Carlson/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 29, 2019 - Wide Receiver Chris Godwin #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The Buccaneers won the game, 55-40. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 29, 2019 - Wide Receiver Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The Buccaneers won the game, 55-40. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 29, 2019 - Wide Receiver Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The Buccaneers won the game, 55-40. Photo By Kyle Zedaker/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Advertising
There certainly appears to be an opportunity for the Buccaneers to land a top-notch offensive tackle in the first round, with one or more of Louisville's Mekhi Becton, Georgia's Andrew Thomas, Alabama's Jedrick Wills and Iowa's Tristan Wirfs having a chance to make it to pick number 14. But the draft is also deep in receivers, has some defensive linemen who look intriguing in the middle of the round and might even have a couple running backs worthy of early selection. "Need" works into the thought process for every GM with every first-round pick, but there's a balancing act between that consideration and the best players available.
"Every year you want to work that particular part of the process the same," said Licht. "You don't want to push players too high at a position of need just to get that position. Across the league, it's 50/50 whether any first-round pick is going to be a player or not three years down the road. It's 50/50 from the first pick down to the 32nd pick. You want to make sure you manage your board the best you can, you want to manage risk and you just want to make sure you get a good football player."
Licht also has to be ready to factor in not only need and availability at a particular draft slot, but also the value of his entire collection of draft picks. If a player is clearly ahead of everyone else on his board, it could be time to consider working a trade up. Licht has successfully done that on several occasions in the middle rounds of previous drafts – such as the ones that led to the selection of current starting guards Ali Marpet and Alex Cappa – but he has yet to do so in the first round. He did make small trades down in 2016 and 2018 that added later draft capital.
Before April 23 and the first round of the draft arrives, Licht will arm himself with all the information he needs to pull or not pull the trigger on any potential trades, including ones up to every possible position before the Bucs' current pick.
"We'll have all of our scenarios done when the draft starts in terms of where I would trade up, where I would trade back, what we would be looking for, what we'd be wanting, what players we're going to take in order – those types of things," he said. "We put together every move up to every pick, all the way up to one, what we'd be willing to do. [That] doesn't necessarily mean we're going to do it."
Obviously, the cost of doing business rises rapidly when the targeted trade-up spots get earlier and earlier. When the Rams traded all the way up from 15th to first in 2016 it cost them two second-round picks and a third-round pick that year plus a first and a third in 2017. That's a dramatic cost, and it's unlikely any team would do that except to try to land a franchise quarterback, which was the Rams' plan with the selection of Jared Goff. The Bucs won't be trading up to the first pick, for sure, but even a move into the bottom half of the top 10 could easily cost them their second-round pick.
"Every year, we put together scenarios of moving up in the first round, as well as moving down," said Licht. "It just hasn't worked out that way. It takes two teams to get together and have a marriage to do the deal. It's not as simple as just saying, 'Okay, we want to move up to the eighth pick.' I guess it is if you're going to give up a bounty of picks. You just want to make sure that you're not stressing your team and harming your team for the future by giving away too much."
