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Saints-Buccaneers: Top Storylines & Key Matchups in Week 14

The Saints' offense has changed dramatically since the Bucs played them in Week Eight in New Orleans, while the defense continues to get after the passer well with a trio of strong edge rushers

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The 7-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers dive back into division play in Week 14, with four of their final five contests coming against NFC South foes. First up is the 2-10 New Orleans Saints, who visit Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, December 7. After posting a 23-3 win in the Superdome in Week Eight, the Buccaneers will try to finish off a second consecutive season sweep of the Saints for the first time in team history. However, New Orleans has won five of its last seven games in Tampa.

The Buccaneers halted a three-game losing skid with a 20-17 win over Arizona in Week 13, building a 20-3 lead on touchdowns from tackle Tristan Wirfs and running back Bucky Irving. In the game as a tackle-eligible, Wirfs caught a two-yard pass from Baker Mayfield for his first NFL touchdown. Irving, meanwhile, returned after missing seven games due to shoulder and foot injuries and made an immediate impact on the Bucs' offense with 81 yards from scrimmage and that 13-yard rushing score. Quarterback Baker Mayfield played despite missing much of the week of practice due to a left shoulder injury and was sharp, throwing for 194 yards without an interception and even turning in some very helpful scrambles. Tampa Bay's defense applied pressure on more than half of Jacoby Brissett's dropbacks but still gave up 301 yards and two touchdown passes.

The Saints lost for the sixth time in their last seven outings in Week 13, going on the road and taking the Miami Dolphins down to the wire in a 21-17. After falling behind 16-0, the Saints rallied and had the ball in Miami territory in the game's final minute before a failed fourth down. Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, a high second-round draft pick, started his fourth game in a row after moving past Spencer Rattler on the depth chart and threw for 239 yards and two touchdowns while absorbing four sacks, throwing a pick and losing a fumble. Overall, Shough has thrown five touchdown passes and four interceptions while completing 65.2% of his passes. Wide receiver Devaughn Vale, acquired in an August trade with Denver, has seen his role steadily increase in the aftermath of the trade of Rashid Shaheed to Seattle and had his best game as a pro in Miami with eight catches for 93 yards and a touchdown. The Saints' defense ranks seventh against the pass and has the eighth-highest sack rate in the NFL.

Can the Buccaneers get one of their usual late-season surges started after getting back into the win column last week, or will the Saints once again make a successful invasion of Raymond James Stadium. Here are four major storylines and four head-to-head player battles to keep an eye on in Week 13 as the Bucs try to stay on top in the NFC South.

TOP STORYLINES

Offense Rounding Into Form The Buccaneers' 20-17 win over Arizona was not an offensive tour de force – 279 total yards, including just 184 through the air – but that output was restrictedby some untimely dropped passes and touchdown-nullifying penalties. Beyond the stat sheet, there were causes for optimism that the Bucs can get closer to their dominant 2024 form down the stretch. Most significantly, Bucky Irving returned to action and Chris Godwin, in his second game back, looked much closer to his pre-2024 injury form. Irving had multiple explosive runs, including a 13-yard touchdown in the third quarter, and Godwin had 78 receiving yards, 44 of which came after the catch. As Godwin gets closer to 100%, he is likely to start drawing somecoverage away from rookie Emeka Egbuka, who has been seeing extra defenders every week in the second half of the season. After exploding out of the gate with 445 receiving yards and five touchdowns in his first five NFL outings, Egbuka has topped 60 yards in a game just once since and has one score in the last seven contests. As the Bucs' passing attack gets closer to its expected cast of weapons, Egbuka should find more opportunities to make explosive plays again. In addition, the return of left guard Ben Bredeson to the lineup in Week 13 helped, and there may be some very key reinforcements on the way. Wide receivers Mike Evans (shoulder) and Jalen McMillan (neck) may begin practicing this week, which would start the clock on their returns to the lineup.

Saints as Spoilers? In the second half of the 2021 season, as the Buccaneers were steaming towards a franchise record 13 regular season victories, they won seven of their last eight and averaged more than 33 points a game in those seven wins. The other game in that span? A 9-0 loss to the Saints at Raymond James Stadium in Week 15. At the time of the meeting, the Saints were 6-7 and had lost five of their six previous games. That loss didn't spoil the Bucs' run to the first of four straight division titles, but the Saints have a better chance to do so this year with Tampa Bay clinging to a very small lead over the Carolina Panthers. As noted above, the Saints have won five of their last seven games in Tampa, so the Buccaneers have plenty of reasons not to look past this week's game in any way. New Orleans is one of three NFC teams that have been officially eliminated from the playoff race, so they may find motivation instead in attempting to derail the Bucs' run to the postseason.

NEW Orleans Offense Since Last Meeting – The Saints' midseason shift from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Shough under center happened with the Buccaneers in the building. After Rattler had thrown for 136 yards and an interception and lost a fumble in the first half, Shough stepped in after halftime and completed 17 of 30 passes for 128 yards and an interception in a 23-3 loss. Shough was named the starter for the remainder of the season the next week. It's been more than a month since, so the New Orleans coaching staff has had plenty of time to adjust their offense to what works best with the rookie passer. Quite a bit about the Saints' offense looks different since these two teams met in late October. Luke Fortner was making his first start at center in that game after standout Erik McCoy had hit injured reserve earlier in the week but he has gotten plenty of action since. Wide receiver Rashid Shaheed was traded away to Seattle about a week later, and starting left guard Trevor Penning was shipped off to the Chargers. Running back Devin Neal, a sixth-round draft pick this past April, started last week in Miami after seasoned veteran Alvin Kamara sprained an MCL in Week 12, and Kamara could still be a question mark this week. New Orleans is now giving significant offensive snaps to wide receivers Mason Tiptoe, a 2024 undrafted free agent, and Devaughn Vale, a preseason trade acquisition. The Buccaneers' defense has already faced off against the Saints' offense once this season, but not this offense.

Collapsing the Pocket – Shough completed 26 of 38 passes in Miami but was also sacked four times, which helped the Dolphins hold off a late comeback. The Buccaneers will try to do the same to Shough to keep the Saints' offense in check on Monday. The return of outside linebacker Haason Reddick helped the Buccaneers' put consistent pressure on Arizona's Jacoby Brissett last Sunday, though a good amount of the pressure actually came straight up the middle. Three different down linemen – Vita Vea, Logan Hall and Elijah Roberts – were credited with "quick pressures" on Brissett, which are ones that occur in less than 2.5 seconds after the snap. Edge rusher Yaya Diaby recorded his team-leading sixth sack of the season as the Bucs had five different defenders who recorded at least four pressures. The Saints rank in the middle of the pack in terms of how often they let their quarterbacks be dropped, ranking 17th in sacks per pass rate allowed at 7.51%. The Bucs hope they can push the Saints farther down that list this weekend.

KEY MATCHUPS

1. Saints C Luke Fortner vs. Buccaneers NT Vita Vea

As mentioned earlier, standout center Erik McCoy, who was chosen for the last two Pro Bowls, hit injured reserve in October, turning the job over to Luke Fortner, a 2022 third-round pick acquired from the Jaguars in August in exchange for defensive tackle Khalen Saunders. Fortner started every game in his first two seasons in Jacksonville but was strictly a reserve in 2024. According to Pro Football Focus, he has not allowed a sack and has committed just one penalty since stepping into the starting lineup. The 307-pound lineman has quick feet and good body control and balance, and he uses his hands well to fight off rushers. Fortner will have his hands full on Sunday against Pro Bowl nose tackle Vita Vea, who likely outweighs him by 50 pounds but has surprisingly nimble feet and a good burst off the line, often commanding double teams. Vea has 3.5 sacks on the season and 32 quarterback pressures, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, which is tied for seventh among all NFL interior linemen this season. NGS has also credited Vea with 12 pressures on plays on which he was double-team, third among all down linemen.

2. Buccaneers T Tristan Wirfs vs. Saints OLB Chase Young

Tristan Wirfs lived the big-man dream last Sunday with a two-yard touchdown catch for his first NFL score. He would probably love to repeat that against New Orleans in Week 14, but by far his most important job will be to keep the Saints' talented edge rushers at Bay. Cameron Jordan, Chase Young and Carl Granderson have combined for 16 of the Saints' 27 sacks, of which 5.0 belong to Young. The second-overall pick in the 2020 draft, Young had 5.5 sacks in 17 games in his first season in New Orleans last year and then got a new three-year, $51 million contract in the offseason. Young missed the first five games of this season but has made an impact since returning, with a sky-high pressure rate of 21.0%. NGS times his get-off at 0.74 seconds after the snap, so Wirfs will need to move quickly to stay in front of him when Baker Mayfield drops back to pass. Young has rushed almost exclusively off the left edge of the opposing offensive line this season, making him mostly Wirfs' responsibility. Wirfs, of course, is up to the challenge as a reigning first-team Associated Press All-Pro at left tackle (an honor he also previously won at right tackle). Wirfs moves with incredible agility for a man of his size and has steadily worked back into his Pro Bowl form after missing the beginning of the season due to knee surgery.

3. Saints WR Chris Olave vs. Buccaneers CB Jamel Dean

One thing is for certain, Tyler Shough is going to throw the ball to Chris Olave, so limiting his production will be a top priority for Tampa Bay's secondary. The 2022 first-round pick has been targeted 114 times this season, which is second among all NFL wideouts only to Cincinnati's Ja'Marr Chase (131). Olave has turned those catch opportunities into 73 receptions for 781 yards and five touchdowns. The former Ohio State star has sub-4.4 speed and the ability to get open quickly on vertical routes. He glides smoothly through his routes and has extremely reliable hands. Jamel Dean, who returned to the Bucs' secondary last weekend after a one-game absence and promptly deflected a pass that turned into an interception, is having one of the best seasons of his career. According to Next Gen Stats, he ranks first in the NFL in all four of these categories among cornerbacks who have been targeted at least 35 times: passer rating allowed (26.6), completion rate allowed (41.5%), target EPA (33.1) and receptions allowed (17). Dean has the speed to keep up with Olave and he has showed improved ball skills in 2025, leading to a team-high three interceptions and seven passes defensed.

4. Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka vs. Saints CB Kool-Aid McKinstry

On the flip side, when the Buccaneers have the ball another strong receiver-on-cornerback challenge could be brewing between rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka and the Saints' Kool-Aid McKinstry, a second-round pick in 2024. Egbuka is first among all NFL rookies with six touchdown receptions and is second with a team-leading 791 yards on 52 receptions. He is averaging a robust 15.2 yards per catch while dazzling with his sharp route-running and the ability to step up in big moments. McKinstry has stepped into a full-time starting role in his second season and leads the Saints with three interceptions and nine passes defensed. He has helped the Saints' defense hold opposing passers to 187.7 yards per game. McKinstry accelerates rapidly and close in on pass-catchers in front of him quickly, but he also defense the deep ball well and stays poised when targeted for big-play attempts.

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