The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' playoff chances could be on the line in Week 17 when they take a short trip downstate to face the Miami Dolphins. The Buccaneers have their "backs against the wall," according to quarterback Baker Mayfield, because a loss at Hard Rock Stadium coupled with a Carolina home win over Seattle would eliminate them from playoff contention.
The Buccaneers fell below .500 for the first time in 2025 with a 23-20 loss at Carolina in Week 16 that dropped them to 7-8 and put them a game behind the 8-7 Panthers in the NFC South. Thanks to a potential tiebreaker advantage, however, the Buccaneers know they can make it to a winner-take-all game against the Panthers with a victory in Miami. The narrow loss in Charlotte followed a recent trend, in which the Buccaneers had a fourth quarter lead or the ball with a chance to take the lead only to have one or two miscues derail them at the end. In this case, it was an interception in Carolina territory with a minute to play that was the product of miscommunication between Mayfield and Mike Evans. The Buccaneers successfully established a power run game, as planned, rushing 33 times for 169 yards, but a missed goal-to-go opportunity in the second quarter and a pair of long passes surrendered to Panthers quarterback Bryce Young swung the balance.
The Dolphins notably made a switch at quarterback in Week 16, benching long-time starter Tua Tagovailoa and giving the job to rookie Quinn Ewers, a seventh-round draft pick out of Texas who made his starting debut against the Cincinnati Bengals. Miami has been eliminated from playoff contention but has an opportunity to get a close look at what they have in Ewers as they determine how they want to move forward at the position. Ewers completed 20 of 30 passes for 260 yards in his first start but was intercepted twice in a 45-21 loss. The Dolphins are able to support the young passer with a strong rushing attack led by De'Von Achane, the NFL's third-leading rusher. While speedy wide receiver Tyreek Hill was lost to injured reserve earlier in the season, the Dolphins still have a big-play catch-and-run threat with Jaylen Waddle (64 catches for 910 yards and six touchdowns) and a good receiving option at tight end in Darren Waller. Miami's defense ranks 11th in the NFL in sacks per pass rate and has continued to thrive in that regard after the trade of Jaelen Phillips to Philadelphia thanks to the efforts of Bradley Chubb and Chop Robinson.
The Buccaneers are looking to recapture the late-game magic that helped them get off to a 6-2 start but has abandoned them in recent weeks. The Dolphins can finish their season strong and possibly find a starting option at quarterback in Ewers. Here are four major storylines and four head-to-head player battles to keep an eye on in Week 17 as the Bucs try keep up in the division title race.
TOP STORYLINES
Staying Alive – The Buccaneers could still be playing for the NFC South title in Week 18 after a loss in South Florida, but they don't want to leave their fate in the hands of the Panthers. A win over the Dolphins keeps the Bucs alive no matter what happens between Carolina and Seattle on Sunday. The Buccaneers have gotten into what they consider a "must-win" situation by losing seven of eight games since the bye week following that rousing 6-2 start. Whereas in recent seasons the Bucs have found another gear in November and December and rode hot streaks into the playoffs, they have yet to flip that switch in 2025. There is, fortunately, still time left. As Mayfield said on Tuesday: "It's a long season. Everything we want is still right in front of us despite everything that's going on. We can win out, make the playoffs and still have our goals ahead of us. You have to endure the storm. It's the ups-and-downs of it and that's just how it goes."
Full Offensive Deployment – When Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan were activated from injured reserve in Week 15, the Buccaneers finally had their anticipated receiver quartet of Evans, McMillan, Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka on the field together. Their two games since couldn't have been more stylistically different. In a 29-28 loss to Atlanta in Week 15, those four receivers accounted for 16 of Mayfield's 19 completions and 91% of his 277 passing yards. Mayfield dropped back 39 times in a game that the Bucs were leading by two scores in the fourth quarter, while the team ran just 22 rushing plays for 88 yards. Last Sunday in Charlotte, the Bucs came into the game determined to run the ball against the Panthers, seeing it as a proven winning formula against the current iteration of that team, and did indeed run 33 times for 169 yards and a touchdown. However, none of those top four receivers had more than 31 receiving yards and there was just one completion of more than 13 yards in a 23-20 loss to the Panthers. Ideally, the Buccaneers would be able to marry the successful parts of those two offensive outings into something more balanced over the next two weeks. "We try to get the ball to our stars, but at the same time, we try to establish the run game and make it balanced as well," said Head Coach Todd Bowles. "We need more explosive plays."
Give and Take – Through the first 12 games of the season, the Buccaneers had won or tied the turnover battle in nine of those contests and had a 7-2 record in those nine games. During their three-game losing streak, which has dropped the Bucs from being in control of the NFC South to being a game back of the Panthers, the Bucs have only forced two total turnovers and have not had an edge in that department in any of the three contests. An interception early in the second half against New Orleans in Week 14 swung the game's tide and sparked a Saints comeback win. In the last two losses to Atlanta and Carolina, fourth-quarter interceptions have proved crucial to the game's outcome. Even with the recent results, the Buccaneers still rank seventh in the NFL with a plus-eight turnover ratio and have a 26-point edge over their opponents in points scored off takeaways. That suggests that the Buccaneers are capable of getting that all-important turnover edge in any given game, and that may prove to be the difference in the upcoming two-week battle for the NFC South. Said Bowles: "We know when we win the turnover battles, we usually win ball games. We didn't win the turnover battle and the two [interceptions] in the fourth quarter the last two weeks are disheartening and [Mayfield] knows that. We know that as an offense, we know that as a team."
De'Von Intervention – Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers' defense would love nothing better than to be able to pin their ears back and go after rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers, causing confusion and potentially creating turnover opportunities. The man most likely to disrupt that plan is third-year running back De'Von Achane, who figures to be Tampa Bay's top priority on defense in Miami. Achane's 1,267 rushing yards rank third in the NFL, his 1,726 yards from scrimmage is fifth and he has scored 12 total touchdowns. His most significant number may be 5.8, which is the average number of yards he generates per carry, as he leads the league in that category among qualifying players. Achane is the main reason the Dolphins are tied for fifth in the NFL with 50 rushing plays for 10 or more yards and third in the league with 15 runs of 20-plus yards. Form tackling and swarming to the football will be critical for the Buccaneers on Sunday in Miami, as an effort will be made not to let Achane get loose in the open field. "He's outstanding," said Bowles. "I mean, he is outstanding. He's kind of like Jahmyr Gibbs. They're kind of one and the same. If you give him a crease, you're not catching him."
KEY MATCHUPS
- Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle vs. Buccaneers CB Benjamin Morrison
With Tyreek Hill on injured reserve, Jaylen Waddle is the undisputed number-one target in Miami's passing attack and he has put together a fine season, catching 64 passes for 910 yards and six touchdowns. No other Miami player has 500 or more receiving yards. Waddle has averaged 14.2 yards per reception; by comparison, the team's next most active wide receiver, Malik Washington, has averaged 7.2 yards on 42 receptions. While Waddle has been outstanding throughout his career at turning short passes into long gains, he has also been targeted with intermediate and deep balls quite frequently this season. Waddle has run a vertical route on 43.4% of his passing plays this season; according to NFL Next Gen Stats, through Week 14 he ranked third in the NFL with 449 yards on vertical routes. Waddle plays a little bit more on the left side, which would pit him against Jamel Dean on Sunday, but he sees enough action on the right side to also get plenty of shots at Benjamin Morrison, the Buccaneers' rookie corner who has been thrust into a starting spot with Zyon McCollum landing on injured reserve. In his first NFL start last Sunday, Morrison had seven tackles, one for a loss, and Head Coach Todd Bowles said he competed well, keeping the action in front of him an all but one key sideline completion to Jalen Coker. Morrison, a second-round draft pick out of Notre Dame, is a fluid mover who stays calm in any situation and reads the quarterback well.
- Buccaneers T Luke Goedeke vs. Dolphins OLB Chop Robinson
A handful of penalties last Sunday made Goedeke's most recent outing one to forget but overall he has had another very strong season as the Buccaneers right tackle while overcoming a foot injury that cost him six games. According to Pro Football Focus, Goedeke has not been responsible for allowing a sack all season. The barrel-chested lineman is a mauler and a tone-setter who always plays to the echo of the whistle. He gets outstanding push in the run game and can be left on an island against some of the NFL's best edge rushers. The 21st-overall pick in the 2024 draft, Chop Robinson had a very promising rookie season for the Dolphins, compiling a 17.2% pressure rate according to Next Gen Stats that was tops among all rookie defenders with at least 100 pass rush snaps. While that rate has declined somewhat in his second season, Robinson has turned up his game in recent weeks, recording 3.0 of his four sacks over the Dolphins last four outings. He also has seven QB hits, one pass defensed and one forced fumble. Robinson creates an imposing edge rush duo with Bradley Chubb, and since he more often rushes off the left edge of Miami's defensive front he should see plenty of reps against Goedeke on Sunday.
- Dolphins TE Darren Waller vs. Buccaneers LB SirVocea Dennis
The Dolphins included tight end Jonnu Smith, who had 88 receptions last year, in the offseason trade that sent Jalen Ramsey to Pittsburgh in exchange for Minkah Fitzpatrick, so they found an inventive way to land a new pass-catching tight end. Miami made a late-round pick swap with the Giants to acquire Darren Waller after he elected to return from a one-year retirement. Though Waller has missed roughly half the season due to injury, he has been productive since returning to action in Week 13, with 13 catches for 166 yards and two touchdowns over the last four games. Waller has scored six touchdowns on his 23 receptions this season and is averaging 12.3 yards per catch, which is higher than his overall career average. Tampa Bay's defense has struggled at times against tight ends this season, which makes Waller a potential key target for young quarterback Quinn Ewers. Dennis is one of the Bucs' key defenders when it comes to slowing down opposing tight ends, and he is coming off one of his best games of the season with eight tackles, a sack and two quarterback hits against the Panthers. Two of those tackles were on short passes to tight end Mitchell Evans. Dennis has good speed and maneuverability to keep up with athletic tight ends. He ranks third on the Bucs' defense with 91 tackles and has broken up five passes and secured one interception.
- Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka vs. Dolphins CB Jack Jones
Egbuka, the Buccaneers' first-round pick back in April, needs 90 more receiving yards to become just the third rookie in franchise history to surpass the 1,000-yard mark. He ranks second among all NFL rookies with 910 receiving yards and six touchdowns on a team-leading 59 receptions. Egbuka helped keep the Buccaneers' passing attack dangerous during long injury absences by Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan; now that all four of those receivers are in action he has seen his target share understandably dip but is still one of the team's best big-play threat. His only catch against the Panthers last Sunday went for 40 yards, the Bucs' lone completion of more than 13 yards in that contest. Egbuka has averaged a robust 15.4 yards per catch this season and has frequently worked his way wide open downfield with very sharp routes and cuts that have left defenders flat-footed. Egbuka should see plenty of action against cornerback Jack Jones, who has 63 tackles, five passes defensed and two forced fumbles this season. Jones, who had five interceptions over the previous two seasons in Las Vegas, has just one pick this season but that's in part because opposing quarterbacks have stayed away from him. According to Next Gen Stats, heading into last week's game Jones had been targeted on just 9.6% of his coverage snaps, the second-lowest rate among all NFL cornerbacks with at least 150 coverage snaps.
