The Tampa Bay Buccaneers considered their game in Miami in Week 17 to be a "must-win" situation, but they were unable to capture that victory. No it's no longer a matter of the Buccaneers' point of view; their regular-season finale against the visiting Carolina Panthers is, in no uncertain terms, a must-win for the team if it hopes to keep its playoff hopes alive.
The Buccaneers bring a four-game losing streak into the contest at Raymond James Stadium, with one of those losses coming by a four-point margin and the other three all by three-point margins. In each case, a key turnover in the second half either shifted the game's momentum (Week 14 against New Orleans), contributed to the late loss of a big lead (Week 15 against Atlanta) or halted a potential comeback (Weeks 16 and 17 against Carolina and Miami). The Buccaneers have actually produced more total yards (1,315 to 1,309) and more first downs (88 to 72) than their opponents in that four-game span but committed six turnovers while forcing only two. The Bucs have demonstrated multiple ways to move the football, rushing for 169 yards two weeks ago against the Panthers and getting a 346-yard passing day out of Baker Mayfield last Sunday in Miami, but have too often "shot themselves in the foot," to use a phrase uttered multiple times by Mayfield in recent weeks. Against the Dolphins, both Jalen McMillan and Chris Godwin produced 100-yard receiving games but the run game couldn't get going.
The Panthers have gotten to Week 18 with a division-best 8-8 record through a very recognizable pattern. Since Week Seven, Carolina has alternated wins and losses every successive week. That's a trend the Bucs would like to break after Carolina lost last Sunday to the visiting Seattle Seahawks, 27-10. In striking a critical blow in the NFC South race two weeks ago, the Panthers played a clean game with no turnovers and just five penalties, making Bryce Young's two touchdown passes stand up in 23-20 decision. Rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan had a strong outing, catching six passes for 73 yards and a touchdown, including one just before halftime on a deep pass that proved to be a back-breaker for the Bucs. Last Sunday the Panthers took a 3-3 game into halftime against Seattle, the top-seeded team in the conference, but saw the Seahawks score two quick touchdowns in the third quarter to pull away. Young was held to 54 yads on 14-of-24 passing, with one interception and no touchdowns.
The Buccaneers did not hit the win column during the month of December but are hoping to change that in January. Here are four major storylines and four head-to-head player battles to keep an eye on in Week 18 as the Bucs try catch up to the Panthers in the division title race.
TOP STORYLINES
Thinking Inside the Box – Believe it or not, even with first place in the NFC South and a spot in the playoffs on the line Saturday, the Buccaneers do not want their tilt with the Panthers to be a "t-shirt and hat game," to use a Bruce Arians-ism. Since Tampa Bay needs a win over Carolina and a loss by the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday to win the division, they won't be able to pull out the sartorial trophies of a division title in their postgame locker room even in victory. In contrast, the Panthers will own the South if they win at Raymond James Stadium on Saturday, so therefore the Buccaneers would like all division-title paraphernalia to remain in its boxes in all locker rooms that evening. The Buccaneers lost control of their own destiny in Week 17 when they fell to the Dolphins on Sunday and watched the Falcons upset the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. A two-way tie at 8-9 with the Panthers would go in Tampa Bay's favor based on a better record against common opponents. However, if the Falcons win to also finish 8-9, the first tiebreaker that would come into play between the three teams would be head-to-head record among all three. Carolina would win that tiebreaker thanks to their season sweep of the Falcons.
Staying Grounded? – In Week 16 in Charlotte, the Buccaneers entered the game with a plan to run the ball on offense at least 30 times, noting that has generally led to success against the Panthers over the last two years. No, the Bucs did not believe that simply running the ball 30 times would automatically deliver a victory, but as Offensive Coordinator Josh Grizzard put it, they wanted to "earn the right to run the ball 30 times." In other words, if running the ball early in the game was proving successful at keeping the chains moving and controlling the clock, then the Bucs could stick with it and hopefully grind their way to victory. As it turned out, 33 carries for 169 yards was not enough to deliver a victory, largely due to a deficit in the turnover battle and an unfulfilled first-and-goal opportunity in the second quarter. As Baker Mayfield noted on Tuesday, with the Bucs and Panthers playing each other twice in a 13-day span, there probably isn't going to be major changes to either team's game plan for the rematch. That would suggest that the Bucs may choose to emphasize the run again on Saturday. If they do, will they be able to pile up the yards again…and will it be the formula for success this time around?
Fourth Quarter Football Security – The Buccaneers still might have beaten the Panthers in Week 16 even though they had to get away from their ground game in the late going. After Carolina kicked the go-ahead field goal late in the fourth quarter, the Bucs had the ball at their own 10-yard line with 2:20 on the clock and all three timeouts in their possession. Mayfield was able to muster an impressive drive that got the Bucs to the Carolina 42 with 49 seconds left, with one timeout still in his pocket. One more first down would have put the Bucs into field goal range but Mayfield was also still thinking about a game-winning touchdown. Instead, on a second-and-nine with the pocket starting to collapse on him, he started forward and to his right, looking for a lane to deliver a quick strike to Mike Evans in the flat. Evans, however, believed that Mayfield was going into scramble mode and he broke in the other direction just as the quarterback threw the ball. The result was a pass directly to safety Lathan Ransom, who picked it off to seal the Carolina win. Each of the Buccaneers' last three losses, all of which have come by four points or less, have featured a game-changing interception in the fourth quarter. Overall, the Buccaneers are 7-1 this season in games in which Mayfield is not intercepted and 0-7 when he is.
A Fond Farewell? – Will Buccaneers fans be witnessing the final performances for two of the top seven players (at least) in franchise history on Saturday? The answer to that question may not be apparent for weeks or months, but it is within the realm of possibility that both linebacker Lavonte David and wide receiver Mike Evans will choose to make 2025 their combined swan song. David has played 14 seasons and Sunday's game will be the 2015th of his career, and as Head Coach Todd Bowles said on Tuesday, the star defender has "doesn't have to show and prove anything to anybody." David's career statistics include 1,708 tackles (second most in team history), 42.5 sacks (sixth), 33 forced fumbles, 20 fumble recoveries, 177 tackles for loss, 14 interceptions, 73 passes defensed and three defensive touchdowns. Evans may or may not even be contemplating retirement, but he is finishing up his 12th season and also doesn't need to add anything to have a Hall of Fame-worthy résumé. He ranks 10th in NFL history with 108 touchdown receptions and is one of only 10 players in league annals to surpass 100 touchdown catches and 13,000 receiving yards. The Buccaneers hope to be playing beyond Week 18, and if they make the playoffs they will have another game in front of the home crowd the following weekend. Still, Buccaneer fans are likely to give David and Evans a very loud thank you on Saturday at Raymond James Stadium.
KEY MATCHUPS
- Panthers G Damien Lewis vs. Buccaneers DL Logan Hall
Starting left guard Damien Lewis missed one game in October with a shoulder injury but has otherwise played every offensive snap for the Panthers this season and is a big reason they've been able to produce 122.4 rushing yards per game, 11th most in the NFL. A former third-round pick of the Seahawks who has started all 92 games in which he has played was signed by the Panthers to a lucrative deal in free agency in 2024 as part of what has proved to be a successful overhaul to a previously-struggling offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus, Damien Lewis has been responsible for just one sack of Bryce Young this season while playing 553 pass-blocking snaps. The 6-2, 237-pound Lewis moves well on pulling plays and redirects interior pass rushers when protecting Young. He is also extremely strong. Hall, the Buccaneers' fourth-year defensive lineman, is on the field for most of the snaps when the Bucs are in a base defense with three down linemen and he has become a very important part of a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL. He is tall and powerful and can be difficult to move for opposing blockers. Hall also recorded one of the Bucs' two sacks of Dolphins passer Quinn Ewers last Sunday. If Hall can get past Lewis quickly and provide pressure up the gut on Young it could help disrupt the Panthers' passing attack on Saturday.
- Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Panthers CB Mike Jackson
In a career that likely will lead to Canton, Ohio, Evans has recorded more receptions (123), receiving yards (1,726) and touchdown catches (15) against the Panthers than against any other opponent. In 22 outings against the division rival, Evans has averaged 14.03 yards per catch and 78.5 yards per game. Last Sunday in Miami he hauled in the 108th touchdown catch of his career, which ranks 10th in NFL history. The week before that, he also scored against Carolina on one of his signature jump-ball fade passes to the corner of the end zone. Evans remains adept at high-pointing the ball and holding on when absorbing big hits. The Panthers deploy their outside cornerbacks in "boundary/field" mode, with seventh-year defender Mike Jackson taking the field, or larger, side. He should get plenty of one-on-one reps against Evans and has the size (6-1, 210) and length to hang with the bigger receiver. Jackson has started all 33 games for the Panthers since coming over from Seattle and has six interceptions and 36 passes defensed in that span. This season, he leads the NFL with 19 passes defensed.
- Panthers WR Jalen Coker vs. Buccaneers CB Jacob Parrish
The Panthers hit paydirt when they signed Coker as an undrafted free agent out of Holy Cross in 2024, as he has delivered 59 receptions for 825 yards and four touchdowns in 21 games since. He lines up in the slot close to 60% of the time but has actually been more effective this season when split out wide, with more touchdowns and a higher average of yards per target. In fact, on the 34-yard reception that set up the Panthers' game-winning field goal against the Bucs in Week 16, he was lined up wide in man-to-man coverage with Benjamin Morrison, running a go route against a single-high safety look. Given the presence of both Morrison and Jamel Dean on the Bucs' injury report this week – with Zyon McCollum already on injured reserve – Parrish easily could see action in the slot, on the outside or both, which means he's sure to get some reps against Coker. A third-round pick out of Kansas State, Parrish has been one of the NFL's top rookie cornerbacks, recording 65 tackles, seven tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, three QB hits, one interception and six passes defensed. Parrish is a willing tackler who plays much bigger than his size and he has proved equally adept in coverage both inside and outside.
- Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving vs. Panthers LB Christian Rozeboom
If Tampa Bay does choose to go with a run-heavy script again versus the Panthers, Irving is likely to be the workhorse. He got 19 of the Buccaneers' 28 running back carries in Week 16 in Charlotte, producing 71 yards. While injuries to both him and multiple offensive linemen have made it impossible for Irving to duplicate or surpass his sublime rookie season, he remains an elusive runner who is also surprisingly effective between the tackles given his season. He's also dangerous in the quick passing game if the Bucs can get him the football with just a little bit of room to set up his blocks and juke defenders. Rozeboom was one of the Panthers' key offseason additions after the team said goodbye to longtime standout linebacker Shaq Thompson. He leads the Panthers with 114 tackles and with 67 stops on running plays. He has also pitched in with 2.0 sacks, seven tackles for loss, one pass defensed, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. After mostly playing in a reserve role in four seasons with the Rams before a breakout 20224 campaign, Rozeboom has taken well to a starting role this season. He takes good angles to the football and plays hard on every snap.
