Last November, thanks to a response regarding his approach to game-planning, Dirk Koetter was briefly labeled as an "anti-analytics" coach. When it comes to drawing up his play sheet for a specific opponent, Koetter values breaking down tape of that opponent over studying a page of team statistics.
In reality – and has gradually become clear over his two seasons with the Buccaneers, first as offensive coordinator and now as head coach – Koetter uses statistical analysis as much as any coach. Perhaps more than some. In particular, he has studied and distilled the factors that are most correlated with winning and regularly presents his team with a list of statistical goals before a game.
The distinction, as is always the case with statistics, is how they are wielded. Numbers can be illuminating, even predictive. For Koetter, they will never take the place of the scouting he can do with his own eyes, but they can assist in that process.
That's our goal with Football Geekery. Each week, we're going to give you a sampling of statistical and/or historical analysis, hopefully in a way that is relevant to the Buccaneers' current state of affairs. This week we take a look at three different Tampa Bay pass-catchers and see where they stand in terms of yards gained after the catch as compared to the rest of the league. We also find out if any team has ever accomplished what the Buccaneers have a chance to do against both reigning Super Bowl teams the next two weeks.
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1. Yakking about YAC
Through the first three weeks of the season, the Buccaneers three leaders in receiving yardage are wide receiver Mike Evans (301), wide receiver Adam Humphries (201) and running back Charles Sims (105). After Week Three, the Pittsburgh Steelers were the only other team in the NFL to have a 300-yard receiver, a 200-yard receiver and a 100-yard receiver (Antonio Brown, Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers). Cincinnati and Miami have joined that list after Thursday night's game but, obviously, those two teams have already played four games.
What's interesting about the Buccaneers' trio is the different manners in which they've added to the Bucs' overall passing yardage total. Evans remains a master at hauling in deep balls over defenders. Humphries has ripped off 20 and 30-yard chunks on a succession of screens. Sims, as is the case with most pass-catching running backs, usually catches very short passes and tries to turn them into more.
This can be seen by comparing those three players Y@C and YAC. That's "yards at catch" and "yards after catch." Given the descriptions above, one would expect Evans to have a higher percentage of his yards in the first category while Humphries and Sims would score higher in the second category. And that's exactly what has happened.
In the chart below, you'll see all three of those Bucs pass-catchers with their overall yards split into Y@C and YAC, with the percentage of the total that each category represents.
The contrast between how Evans has gotten his yards and how Humphries and Sims have gotten theirs is stark. Sims's numbers, in particular, are striking and clearly indicate that he has caught some passes behind the line of scrimmage. As a hypothetical example, if a running back were to catch a pass two yards behind the line and then run for a gain of 33 yards, that would give him -2 Y@C and 35 YAC.
Pictures of the Broncos' starting offense and defense, according to the team's depth chart.
88 WR Demaryius Thomas
73 LT Russell Okung
76 LG Max Garcia
61 C Matt Paradis
79 RG Michael Schofield
71 RT Donald Stephenson
85 TE Virgil Green
10 WR Emmanuel Sanders
22 RB C.J. Anderson
13 QB Trevor Siemian
32 FB Andy Janovich
95 DE Derek Wolfe
92 NT Sylvester Williams
93 DE Jared Crick
58 LB Von Miller
94 LB DeMarcus Ware
54 LB Brandon Marshall
51 LB Todd Davis
21 CB Aqib Talib
25 CB Chris Harris Jr.
26 FS Darian Stewart
43 SS T.J. Ward
As one might expect, running backs tend to dominate the chart of NFL leaders in yards after the catch. Nineteen of the 25 players with the highest YAC average in the league so far are running backs. Even when you sort for only those who have caught at least 10 passes, 14 of the top 20 are running backs, led by Atlanta's Tevin Coleman, Philadelphia's Darren Sproles and Arizona's David Johnson.
Both Sims and Humphries are among the top 11 in the league in YAC average, among players with at least 10 catches, while Evans actually ranks 93rd out of 96 qualifiers (minimum of 10 receptions). Sims ranks sixth among running backs in YAC average and Humphries ranks third among receivers. Here are the top 11:
Player
Team
Pos.
Rec.
YAC
YAC Avg.
- Tevin Coleman
ATL
RB
10
180
18.00
- Darren Sproles
PHI
RB
10
167
16.70
- David Johnson
AZ
RB
10
134
13.40
- Tyrell Williams
SD
WR
11
146
13.27
- Martellus Bennett
NE
TE
10
107
10.70
- Spencer Ware
KC
RB
10
104
10.40
- Josh Ferguson
IND
RB
10
88
8.80
- Charles Sims
TB
RB
12
103
8.58
- Marvin Jones Jr.
DET
WR
18
151
8.39
- Giovani Bernard
CIN
RB
16
134
8.38
- Adam Humphries
TB
WR
18
149
8.28
These players are ranked by how much YAC they get per reception. Above, we showed you the percentage breakdown for three Buccaneers as to how much of their overall total has come after the catch. Both Sims and Humphries rank in the top 20 in the NFL (among 10-catch qualifiers) in percentage of yards gained after the catch and, in fact, Humphries leads all qualifying receivers in that category.
Player
Team
Pos.
Rec
YAC
Y@C
Total
YAC %
- C. West
KC
RB
10
50
-16
34
147.1%
- LeSean McCoy
BUC
RB
11
59
-10
49
120.4%
- T.J. Yeldon
JAX
RB
14
59
-8
51
115.7%
- Tevin Coleman
ATL
RB
10
180
-13
167
107.8%
- Josh Ferguson
IND
RB
10
88
-4
84
104.8%
- Darren Sproles
PHI
RB
10
167
-7
160
104.4%
- Mark Ingram
NO
RB
10
79
-3
76
103.9%
- D. Williams
PIT
RB
14
89
0
89
100.0%
- Duke Johnson
CLE
RB
12
83
1
84
98.8%
- Theo Riddick
DET
RB
16
128
2
130
98.5%
- Charles Sims
TB
RB
12
103
2
105
98.1%
- Justin Forsett
BAL
RB
11
35
1
36
97.2%
- G. Bernard
CIN
RB
16
134
7
141
95.0%
- D. Murray
TEN
RB
17
107
25
132
81.1%
- David Johnson
AZ
RB
10
134
35
169
79.3%
- M. Bennett
NE
TE
10
107
31
138
77.5%
- A. Humphries
TB
WR
18
149
52
201
74.1%
- Tyrell Williams
SD
WR
11
146
55
201
72.6%
- Marqise Lee
JAX
WR
12
99
42
141
70.2%
- Golden Tate
DET
WR
13
66
28
94
70.2%
Noting how well Humphries has fared on screen passes, Head Coach Dirk Koetter said on Wednesday that the Buccaneers might actually have to throw fewer of those to the second-year receiver in the weeks to come. Koetter indicated that the Los Angeles Rams were actively expecting that play in the second half of last Sunday's game when Humphries was on the field. Still, he's sure to get more opportunities to pick up YAC as the season progresses, and he's proved to be quite good at taking advantage of those chances.
2. Taking Down the Champs?
On Thursday, Koetter noted that the incoming Denver Broncos are riding an eight-game winning streak that extends back through Week 16 of last season and includes the Super Bowl 50 downing of Carolina.
"We've been talking about that – it's an unbelievable opportunity for us," said the Bucs' coach. "We say that with all due respect to the Broncos, they've got a fantastic team, very well coached, but that is a great opportunity for us on Sunday."
Now, like all coaches, Koetter is going to keep his team focused on the week at hand and avoid looking further down the schedule. However, the visit from the Broncos is actually just the first half of an opportunity for the Buccaneers to accomplish a feat no team has managed in over three decades. Sure, they could take down the defending Super Bowl champs, but some team has done that in each of the last 49 years (neither the undefeated '72 Dolphins nor the undefeated '07 Patriots were defending champs). What the Buccaneers could do in the next fortnight is defeat both of the reigning Super Bowl teams in consecutive weeks.
Simply taking down both of the previous year's Super Bowl teams in the same season is a somewhat (though not exceedingly) rare accomplishment. It has been done a total of 22 times, or close to once every other year. The most recent team to accomplish that feat was the 2014 St. Louis Rams, who beat both the Seahawks and Broncos.
In fact, the Buccaneers have done that before. In 1999, they stopped the defending-champion Broncos (sans retired quarterback John Elway), 13-10, in Week Three. Eight weeks later, the Bucs earned a 19-10 decision against the Atlanta Falcons, who had lost to Denver in the Super Bowl.
Only two teams have ever beaten both reigning Super Bowl teams in consecutive weeks, however, and none since 1985. That year, the Detroit Lions toppled San Francisco and Miami in Weeks Seven and Eight. And in 1982, the San Diego Chargers earned back-to-back wins over San Francisco and Cincinnati in Weeks 14 and 15.
Here are all the instances of a team defeating both reigning Super Bowl squads in the same year. The two in bold are the ones that went back-to-back.
The Chargers have done it the most, three times, including two of the most recent four. Denver got the closest to back-to-back wins since 1985 when they beat New England in Week Six and Philadelphia in Week Eight in 2005. The 1999 season was a bad one for the defending Super Bowl teams, as both Denver and Atlanta were beaten by three different teams.
