The 6-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers will make just their fourth regular-season trek ever to Buffalo to take on a Bills squad that also stands at 6-3. The game at Highmark Stadium is scheduled for Sunday, November 16, with kickoff set for 1:00 p.m. ET. Both teams are coming off losses but are still in the thick of their respective conference races. The Buccaneers are 1.5 games ahead of the Carolina Panthers as they try to win a fifth straight NFC South title, while the Bills are 1.5 games behind the red-hot New England Patriots in the AFC East.
The Bills have constructed the best ground game in the NFL between running back James Cook and quarterback Josh Allen, but they will face the Bucs' 11th-ranked rush defense on Sunday. The Buccaneers have scored the 11th most points per game through nine outings while the Bills have allowed the seventh fewest points per game. Buffalo has gained the fourth most first downs (tied) on offense but Tampa Bay's defense has allowed the eighth fewest first downs (tied). Here's how the Buccaneers and Bills stack up against each other for their Week 11 meeting in Buffalo:
When Tampa Bay Has the Ball:
| Buccaneers Offense | Category | Bills Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 17th (328.3) | Net Yards Per Game | 14th (317.8) |
| 17th (5.31) | Yards Per Play | 24th (5.59) |
| 11th (24.4) | Points Per Game | 11th (21.9) |
| 25th (99.8) | Rushing Yards Per Game | 30th (147.6) |
| 14th (228.6) | Passing Yards Per Game | 3rd (170.2) |
| 24th (36.5%) | Third Down Percentage | 13th (37.5%) |
| 10th (6.09%) | Sacks Per Pass Play | 5th (10.25%) |
| 2nd (0.64%) | Interception Percentage | 12th (2.46%) |
| 24th (52.0%) | Red Zone Touchdown Pct. | 14th (58.3%) |
When Buffalo Has the Ball:
| Bills Offense | Category | Buccaneers Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd (384.4) | Net Yards Per Game | 20th (334.0) |
| 3rd (6.10) | Yards Per Play | 18th (5.43) |
| 6th (27.6) | Points Per Game | 14th (22.9) |
| 1st (153.2) | Rushing Yards Per Game | 11th (100.8) |
| 12th (231.2) | Passing Yards Per Game | 24th (233.2) |
| 5th (43.9%) | Third Down Percentage | 17th (38.5%) |
| 19th (7.43%) | Sacks Per Pass Play | 11th (8.39%) |
| 13th (1.86%) | Interception Percentage | 11th (2.58%) |
| 7th (65.6%) | Red Zone Touchdown Pct. | 21st (61.9%) |
Advantage Buccaneers: YAC
Though they have not been quite as explosive as last season in terms of picking up yards after the catch – thanks largely to the prolonged absences of Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving – the Buccaneers still remain one of the better YAC offenses in the NFL. Tampa Bay's 1,131 overall yards after the catch ranks ninth in the NFL and sixth among teams that have only played nine games instead of 10. Of the Bucs' total passing yards, 51.6% of it has come after the catch, which also ranks ninth in the NFL. Buffalo's pass defense has been quite good overall, allowing only 170.2 yards per game, so their YAC allowed total is also relatively low. But the Bills have only allowed one yard after the catch or fewer on 30 of the 152 receptions against them, which ranks 30th in the NFL.
Advantage Bills: Red Zone Touchdown Conversion
It makes sense that a team that employs such an incredible goal-line weapon as Josh Allen would have good red zone numbers, and indeed the Bills do. Buffalo ranks seventh in the league with a touchdown rate of 65.63% on red zone trips, and their successful play rate of 52.8% ranks ninth.It gets even better when the Bills get near the goal line. They have achieved 11 first downs inside the five-yard line this season and all 11 of those drives have ended in touchdowns. Allen's seven rushing touchdowns are the most by any quarterback in the league this season and are fifth most among all players. The Buccaneers' red zone defense has improved of late, as the last seven opponent trips inside their 20 have resulted in just three touchdowns. However, the team still ranks 21st in that category, allowing a red zone touchdown rate of 61.90%.
X-Factor: Explosive Rushing Plays
The Buccaneers are seeking more explosive plays in their rushing attack, as Sean Tucker's 18-yard run against the Patriots last Sunday is the team's longest by a running back this season. Last year, the Bucs recorded 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, or nearly one per game. The eventual return of Irving could help with that, but even if he remains sidelined this weekend the Bucs might be able to break off a couple long runs against the Bills, who rank 30th in the league in rush defense with an average of 147.6 per game. They are second-to-last in yards allowed per carry, at 5.47. Buffalo has allowed 40 runs of 10 more yards, the third most in the league, and 10 runs of 20 or more yards, tied for the third most in the NFL.
