In Week 16, the 7-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers will hit the road for the first time in a month and with a lot at stake, as they take on the 7-7 Caroline Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. The game, which will propel one of the two teams into first place in the NFC South with two weeks to go, is set for Sunday, December 21, with kickoff at 1:00 p.m. ET. The two teams will meet again in Week 18, so the division won't be decided on Sunday but a significant advantage is on the line.
The Buccaneers are coming off consecutive home losses to the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons, both decided late in the fourth quarter. New Orleans then subsequently gave the Bucs some help by knocking off the Panthers lats weekend on a last-second field goal. Carolina's rise to contender status has been built on the league's ninth-ranked rushing attack and a defense that has improved significantly in almost every category from last year's performance. The Panthers' defense ranks seventh in interception percentage but just 30th in sacks per pass play and 29th in third-down success rate allowed. Tampa Bay's offense has mostly protected the ball well but did get hit with five sacks last Thursday night against Atlanta.
Here's how the Buccaneers and Panthers stack up against each other for their critical Week 16 showdown in Charlotte:
When Tampa Bay Has the Ball:
| Buccaneers Offense | Category | Panthers Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 21st (316.6) | Net Yards Per Game | 17th (331.5) |
| 26th (5.05) | Yards Per Play | 25th (5.64) |
| 15th (23.4) | Points Per Game | 14th (22.6) |
| 21st (113.2) | Rushing Yards Per Game | 16th (116.0) |
| t-20th (203.4) | Passing Yards Per Game | 17th (215.5) |
| 16th (38.7%) | Third Down Percentage | 29th (44.9%) |
| 14th (6.65%) | Sacks Per Pass Play | 30th (5.32%) |
| 9th (1.50%) | Interception Percentage | 7th (2.78%) |
| 23rd (53.7%) | Red Zone Touchdown Pct. | 12th (56.5%) |
When Carolina Has the Ball:
| Panthers Offense | Category | Buccaneers Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 24th (309.0) | Net Yards Per Game | 25th (348.2) |
| 25th (5.05) | Yards Per Play | 26th (5.72) |
| 28th (18.9) | Points Per Game | 24th (25.3) |
| 9th (125.6) | Rushing Yards Per Game | 10th (101.4) |
| 25th (183.4) | Passing Yards Per Game | 30th (246.9) |
| 20th (37.9%) | Third Down Percentage | 20th (40.5%) |
| 18th (7.31%) | Sacks Per Pass Play | 19th (6.89%) |
| 18th (2.36%) | Interception Percentage | 12th (2.51%) |
| 26th (51.3%) | Red Zone Touchdown Pct. | t-30th (72.2%) |
Advantage Buccaneers: Pass Protection
As noted above, quarterback Baker Mayfield was sacked five times against Atlanta, eating into the efficiency of a passing attack that was starting to heat up with the simultaneous returns of Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan. However, that is the most sacks Mayfield has endured in a game this season and in the previous two games combined he went down just twice. Even after the Atlanta game, the Buccaneers' offense still ranks 14th in sacks-allowed-per-pass-play, at 6.65%. While the Panthers' defense has improved dramatically in 2025 – most notably in going from dead last in points allowed last year to 14th this year – the pass rush hasn't been particularly potent. Carolina's 23 sacks overall ranks 29th in the league and its sacks-per-pass-play rate of 5.32% is 30th. That said, the Panthers' defense did produce five sacks last weekend against the Saints, so perhaps it can make a late-season surge in that category.
Advantage Panthers: Red Zone Defense
One of the reasons that the Panthers rank 17th in yards allowed but 14th in points allowed is the solid work they have done on defense in the red zone. Carolina has allowed opponents to score touchdowns on just 56.5% of their trips inside the 20, which ranks 12th in the NFL. The Panthers get particularly stingy against the run in that part of the field, allowing just 2.10 yards per carry, fifth lowest among all defenses in the NFL. The Panthers have also secured four takeaways inside their own red zone, just one off the overall NFL lead. The Buccaneers' offense has scuffled a bit in the red zone, perhaps due to the long absences of such offensive threats as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who have thrived in that area in their careers. The Bucs did score touchdowns on all three of its trips inside the 20 against Atlanta in Week 15, but still rank just 23rd in that category with a 53.6% rate of finding the end zone.
X-Factor: Fourth-Down Aggressiveness
If the Carolina offense gets in a fourth-down situation on Sunday and Dave Canales decides to go for it, it should be a heavyweight battle. The Panthers rank sixth in the NFL with a fourth-down conversion rate of 69.7%; however, Tampa Bay's defense ranks fifth against fourth-down plays, allowing successful conversions just 42.9% of the time. The reason this is a potential X-Factor for Sunday's game is that Canales' team has gone for it on fourth down a lot this season. Carolina's 33 fourth-down attempts, or about 2.4 per game, rank second only to the 35 that the Kansas City Chiefs have tried. The Panthers have twice converted on fourth downs that needed more than six yards to be good, tied for the most in the NFL.
