In Week 17, the 7-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers will put their season on the line on the road against the 6-9 Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. The Buccaneers need a win to ensure that they will be playing for the NFC South title in Week 18, while the Dolphins are trying to finish strong with a rookie quarterback, Quinn Ewers, at the helm. The game is scheduled for Sunday, December 28, with kickoff at 1:00 p.m. ET.
The Dolphins have run the ball well in 2025 behind big-play producer De'Von Achane, as the team ranks 13th in the NFL with 122.4 rushing yards per game. Even more indicative of the danger the Miami rushing attack poses is the team's average of 4.87 yards per carry, fourth-best in the NFL. Tampa Bay's defense, however, ranks seventh in the NFL against the run, allowing just 101.3 yards per contest. Miami's defense has struggled against the run but does rank 11th in terms of sacks created per pass pay. The Buccaneers' defense is giving up 5.73 yards per play, which is sixth worst in the NFL.
Here's how the Buccaneers and Dolphins stack up against each other for their Week 17 intrastate showdown in South Florida:
When Tampa Bay Has the Ball:
| Buccaneers Offense | Category | Dolphins Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd (315.3) | Net Yards Per Game | 19th (339.5) |
| 26th (5.04) | Yards Per Play | 25th (5.63) |
| 19th (23.1) | Points Per Game | 22nd (24.6) |
| 20th (116.9) | Rushing Yards Per Game | 26th (130.3) |
| 22nd (198.3) | Passing Yards Per Game | t-14th (209.1) |
| t-12th (40.0%) | Third Down Percentage | 14th (38.9%) |
| 14th (6.71%) | Sacks Per Pass Play | 11th (8.02%) |
| 9th (1.63%) | Interception Percentage | 24th (1.56%) |
| 23rd (54.6%) | Red Zone Touchdown Pct. | 15th (57.4%) |
When Miami Has the Ball:
| Dolphins Offense | Category | Buccaneers Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 24th (308.9) | Net Yards Per Game | 22nd (343.3) |
| 11th (5.51) | Yards Per Play | 27th (5.73) |
| 22nd (21.1) | Points Per Game | 24th (25.1) |
| 13th (122.4) | Rushing Yards Per Game | 7th (101.3) |
| 25th (186.5) | Passing Yards Per Game | 27th (242.0) |
| 28th (34.7%) | Third Down Percentage | 22nd (41.1%) |
| 18th (7.41%) | Sacks Per Pass Play | 19th (6.85%) |
| 31st (3.94%) | Interception Percentage | 13th (2.35%) |
| 13th (59.5%) | Red Zone Touchdown Pct. | 31st (71.1%) |
Advantage Buccaneers: Turnovers
The Dolphins have thrown 17 interceptions in 2025, including two last week by Ewers in his starting debut, and that's second only to the 21 thrown by the Vikings. Overall, Miami has a -5 turnover differential this season, as compared to +8 for the Buccaneers. Opponents have used their 22 overall takeaways against Miami to score 82 points, the fifth-highest total against any team in the league. The Buccaneers, in contrast, have allowed only 37 points off turnovers while scoring 63.
Advantage Dolphins: Red Zone Offense
Miami has been relatively efficient on offense when penetrating the opposition's 20-yard line, scoring touchdowns on 59.5% of such possessions, which ranks 13th in the NFL. Notably, Tampa Bay's defense has struggled in this department, allowing touchdowns on 71.1% of red zone drives against it, which is the second-worst percentage in the league. The Dolphins have been even better when achieving a first-and-goal situation, scoring touchdowns on 86.4% of such possessions. The Bucs' defense has allowed touchdowns on 90% of drives that have reached a first-and-goal.
X-Factor: Pressure on Quinn Ewers
Ewers showed some promise in his debut start last weekend, completing 20 of 30 passes for 260 yards. Notably, he was not sacked once by Cincinnati's defense and was only hit four times. Most defensive play-callers like to attack inexperienced starting quarterbacks very aggressively, attempting to turn up the heat to force them into hurried decisions and throwing errors. Can the Bucs do that against the seventh-rounder out of Texas? The Buccaneers rank 19th in the league in sacks per pass play but have been streaky in that department, with a slow start to the season followed by a strong midseason run that featured 15 sacks in a three-game span. Over the past four games, the Bucs have averaged just two sacks per game. Miami's offense ranks 18th in the NFL in terms of sacks allowed per pass play.
