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What Lies Ahead | S.S. Mailbag

This week, Buccaneers fans have questions about the best non-playoff teams in Bucs' history, the remainder of the team's 2023 schedule, kickoff fair catches and more

mailbag

No long-winded intro this week, so it will be easier for those who always just scroll down to the questions anyway. I'm writing this on Thursday and I'd like to get to the football and turkey as soon as possible. (Don't cry for me, I could have written this on a different day.) And there were a lot of good questions I wanted to get to this week.

So here's a handful of things I think, as Buccaneers fans, we can be thankful for:

- Lavonte David. Always and forever. He's hurt and probably won't play this week but what a joy it's bene watching him play like he's still 25 this season, and becoming the second leading tackler in team history.

- Hall of Famers to whom we get to compare Mike Evans week after week. Nearly every time he catches a touchdown pass, which he's done seven times already this season, Evans moves up another spot on the NFL's all-time list, and he's usually catching a Hall of Famer like Andre Reed or Don Maynard or Calvin Johnson or Lance Alworth. It's been a lot of fun to follow.

- Tristan Wirfs? Could he handle the switch to left tackle? Was there ever any doubt?

- Creamsicle uniforms. They were beautiful. Look forward to seeing them again next year.

- Dave Canales' relentlessly upbeat approach to his work. It's infectious.

- Baker Mayfield's competitive nature on the football field.

- Jake Camarda's turbo-powered right leg.

There's plenty more where that came from, but let's get to your questions.

A reminder that you can send questions to me any time you want on Twitter (@ScottSBucs) and they're easier to find if you include the hashtag #SSMailbagBucs. We are also now soliciting questions each week on our Instagram page; look for that story on Wednesdays. As always, if you want to get a longer question into the mailbag and would prefer to email your question, you can do so to tbbsocial@buccaneers.nfl.com.

View pictures from Tampa Bay Buccaneers practice on 11/23/2023

What is the Bucs all-time record on Thanksgiving day?

- @george.you.know.who (via Instagram)

I'm giving myself an easy one to get started, a little appetizer before the Thanksgiving meal. Actually, I guess this is more like an amuse bouche because it's really just one bite. I didn't even have to look it up because I know the Bucs have only played on Thanksgiving Day once, and I was there. Unfortunately, it didn't go well for our team. So, to answer your question directly, the Bucs' all-time Thanksgiving Day (or night) record is 0-1.

In 2005, the Buccaneers went 11-5, won the NFC South and tied for the second best record in the NFL. (An early playoff exit followed.) That made them an attractive team for the schedule-makers in 2006, and thus the Buccaneers were sent to Dallas in Week 12 for their first ever Thanksgiving game.

Things started out well enough, as quarterback Bruce Gradkowski took the Bucs right down the field on the opening drive, which ended in a one-yard touchdown run by, of course, Mike Alstott. That was the end of the good times for the visiting team, however, as Dallas scored 38 of the next 41 points and won, 38-10. Tony Romo threw five touchdown passes, including two each to the immortal duo of Terry Glenn and Marion Barber.

That's it. The Bucs have yet to be asked back on Thanksgiving again, even during the three-year Tom Brady era. Tampa Bay is one of only three teams to have just a single Turkey Day appearance, along with Carolina and Cincinnati. Other than traditional hosts Dallas and Detroit, the most common Thanksgiving team is the Chicago Bears, with 37.

What is the best Buccaneers team to miss the playoffs?

- @addi.leathers (via Instagram)

Based on the first three quarters of the season, I would say the 2008 team. After making the playoffs as the NFC South champions in 2007, the Bucs looked even better in '08. After 12 games, Tampa Bay was 9-3, tied with Carolina for the division lead, and it had already beaten the Panthers earlier in the season, 27-3. The Falcons were one game back at 8-4, and the Bucs had already beaten them, 24-9. Given that Philadelphia would eventually take the final Wild Card spot with a 9-6-1 record, it's clear in retrospect that the Bucs only had to win one of their last four games.

Then it all fell apart. The Bucs got clobbered by the Panthers in Week 14, then nipped by the Falcons in a three-point game. The last two games were against the Chargers and Raiders, who at the time were 4-8 and 3-9 respectively. The Bucs lost those two by scores of 41-24 and 31-24. Whether or not the collapse was germinated by the news that Monte Kiffin was leaving the team to join his son Lane's staff at Tennessee is still a matter of debate.

Based simply on winning percentage, you would have to go with the 2010 team, which was coached by Raheem Morris in the middle season of his three-year stint at the helm. That was the "Race to 10" team that did indeed get to 10 wins, only to find out that it in fact was not enough to earn them a playoff spot. The Bucs lost a third-level tiebreaker to Green Bay for the last spot in the NFC field, which was a bummer, but at least the Packers made the most of that spot, winning three road games before beating Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV.

However, while it's not really quantifiable, I doubt that was the best non-playoff team in Bucs history in terms of roster talent. That the Bucs went 3-13 the year before it and 4-12 the year after it, the 2010 season was probably a little fluky. That team ranked 19th in the NFL on offense and 17th on defense and only had a +23 scoring differential.

I would also highlight the 1998 and 2003 teams. That was during the stretch from 1997-2005 when the Bucs were led by one of the best NFL defenses ever and made the playoffs six times in nine years. The 2004 team was legitimately bad, but the '98 and '03 teams probably should have made the postseason. There were a lot of fluky losses in those two seasons and some terrible injury luck. The 1998 team actually had the better record, at 8-8, and it also missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker to Arizona, but the 2003 team was probably more talented. Obviously, that team was a defending Super Bowl champion, and after it totally rolled over the Eagles, 17-0, in the season opener, I was told by one of the prominent players that he thought the '03 roster was better than the '02 one.

That was the season when a blocked extra point kept the Bucs from beating Carolina in Week Two and a series of unfortunate events led to the still unbelievable 38-35 Monday Night Football lost to Tony Dungy's Colts. That was also the season in which Mike Alstott and Joe Jurevicius suffered significant injuries on the same play, when Alstott ran into the back of Jurevicius on a downfield block. I don't feel like listing every black-cat moment from that season, but suffice it to say that no one saw a 7-9 record coming on that with that roster.

So I'll choose to answer the question with what I believe was the most talented Bucs roster not to make the playoffs, and that would be the 2003 team.

What do you think of the upcoming schedule and having to face six losing teams?

- oliverrradam (via Instagram)

Well, first of all, I understand the gist of the question and answer it as such in a moment, but the first thing I think is that it's not exactly accurate.

Here are the Bucs' final seven games, including two against the Panthers, and their records before the start of Week 12:

at Indianapolis (5-5)

Carolina (1-9)

at Atlanta (4-6)

at Green Bay (4-6*)

Jacksonville (7-3)

New Orleans (5-5)

At Carolina (1-9)

* Green Bay played on Thanksgiving and will be either 5-6 or 4-7 by the time this is posted.

So I count three opponents and four games against teams that currently have losing records, two against .500 teams and one against a winning team. And given how four of those games are against teams that are eight 4-6 or 5-5 at the moment, any number of them could have winning records by the time they pop up on the Buccaneers' schedule.

But I'm assuming your general point is that the Buccaneers have already played the tougher part of its schedule, which included games against three of the four teams with the best records in the NFC – Philadelphia, Detroit and San Francisco – plus an upstart Houston team and the always tough Bills, both on the road. And what I think about that is I'm glad the Bucs don't have to play those teams again as they try to chase down a playoff spot.

Other than that, I'm not going to be counting any chickens before they hatch. Keep in mind that the Falcons have already beaten the Bucs, so we certainly can't take that one for granted. And you only have to think back to last year's game in Carolina to learn caution when assuming a Panthers game is going to be an easy mark, whatever their record is. This weekend, the Buccaneers head to Indy with a very banged-up defense to face the ninth-highest scoring team in the league. My point is, nothing is going to come easy. That said, I do believe the Buccaneers can win any and all of those games.

To your point, though, the Buccaneers have the second easiest remaining schedule, based on strength of schedule, which is the combined winning percentage of a team's opponents. Then again, Atlanta has the easiest and New Orleans the third easiest, so…

Scott,

This has been bothering me for a few weeks now, so I finally felt like i had to write in to ask you about it. It's about the new fair catch rule on kickoffs. Basically my question is – why isn't anyone using it?!? I don't know if I've seen it even 1 time so far this season. I know this was another rule about player safety, which is fine, but since it's an optional thing it's really not having impact. My point is that this is a strategic thing. Are teams really that good at returning kickoffs that they won't ever just take the starting line at the 25?

Thanks and Happy Thanksgiving…Michael Thomas (not that one)

(via email)

Great question! I've been wondering the exact same thing. Just from memory, I believe I've seen it exactly once by the Bucs' return team and exactly once from their opponents.

For anyone who doesn't know, NFL owners approved a resolution during the offseason to allow players to call for a fair catch on kickoffs if the ball is behind the 25. The ball is then placed at the 25 for the start of the ensuing drive. College football has the same rule and I see it used a lot more in those games. This one of those one-year resolutions, meaning the league will try it out this season and then see if they want to make it permanent next season. From what I've seen, why bother?

"Are NFL teams really that good at returning kickoffs," you ask. No! Through 11 weeks, all 32 teams have combined to record two kickoff return touchdowns. The average kickoff return across the league gains 22.7 yards and only five teams are even averaging 25 or more yards per return. The NFL average on kickoff returns is 22.7 yards, and the average starting position is at the 25.1 yard line. If return men fair caught every kickoff that didn't go into the end zone, virtually nothing would change!

Given those stats, if you choose to return a kickoff your basically hoping to get back to the 25-yard line anyway. Take the fair catch and that's guaranteed and you don't run the risk of a holding penalty on the return knocking you back to your 10-yard line.

Rant over. Now for a speed round!

How many yards did Godwin have last game

- @jarvonmerk (via Instagram)

Chris Godwin caught six passes for 39 yards in the game against San Francisco last weekend.

- What is Rachaad White's contract?

- @jacobwelvaert9 (via Instagram)

As a third-round draft pick in 2022, White got the standard four-year deal that every player drafted from rounds Two through Seven gets. That means the Buccaneers have him under contract through the 2025 season, but there is no fifth-year team option like there are in the contracts for first-round picks. The Buccaneers as a rule don't release the dollar amounts in their contracts, but if you're curious enough that information is easy to find on Spotrac.com or OvertheCap.com.

After facing a former-Buc-player-turned-GM (John Lynch), is there any other former Bucs that you think would make a great GM?

- keeganschenck (via Instagram)

I'll go with the easy answer here: Rondé Barber. What has made John Lynch a success as the general manager in San Francisco? Well, he's very intelligent, he knows the game of football inside and out and he stayed very close to the game after he retired as a player. Do the same things apply to Barber? Check, check and check. Honestly, I think Rondé would probably succeed at just about anything he tried.

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