Just when you think there could not possibly be any more NFL Draft information to digest, three more reports drop and make you question everything you thought you knew. Two weeks ago, I released a seven-round mock draft I was quite proud of. I went website to website, insider to insider, meticulously piecing together something I could be proud of. Well, about four days later, the avalanche continued and now I look back at that mock and cringe a little. So here I am again, invigorated to take one more crack at the first round and see how close I can get to the real deal tomorrow.
Let me preface this by saying, I am no insider. This is just for the love of the game. Many of the pundits and NFL experts I follow have a tradition of dropping one more mock the day before the draft and I wanted to follow suit, submitting my final thoughts and best guesstimate of how Day One in Pittsburgh will play out.
In an effort to be as accurate as possible, I'm staying away from trades in this mock. Statistically, predicting a move significantly lowers the probability of slotting a player in the correct spot. Sure, pinpointing a team moving up would be pretty cool, but I'd still need to nail the prospect or it's all for nothing.
Without further ado, here is my final first-round mock. If I can hit on around 20 to 25 percent of the picks, I'll be thrilled. In reality, I'll probably score much lower and that's something I can live with. Like I said, this is all for the love of the game. Will my research pay dividends or will I embarrass myself? We will not have to wait very long for the answer.
1. Las Vegas Raiders: QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Fernando Mendoza is a proven winner, has a first-class mentality and can elevate a franchise. The choice is clear.
2. New York Jets: EDGE David Bailey, Texas Tech
As Senior Writer/Editor Scott Smith pointed out in last week's mock, public perception has shifted to David Bailey being the Jets' selection at No. 2. Many believed Arvell Reese was the clear choice due to his positional versatility. However, Bailey's pass rush ability is simply too good for Aaron Glenn to pass up.
3. Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Arvell Reese, Ohio State
Here is where the draft gets interesting. Many outlets have Miami tackle Francis Mauigoa being taken off the board here or Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love joining the Cardinals' backfield. I truly believe Reese won't survive past No. 3. Arizona will have fun scheming him into their defensive fronts.
4. Tennessee Titans: RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
The Titans land one of the best athletes in the draft. I strongly considered Sonny Styles here, but the allure of Jeremiyah Love and what he could do for Cam Ward was enough for me to turn in the card.
5. New York Giants: LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State
In his first year as head coach, John Harbaugh wants to establish the type of player he values in his locker room. Styles will earn the respect of his teammates the moment he steps on the field.
6. Cleveland Browns: S Caleb Downs, Ohio State
General Manager Andrew Berry recently said he wanted to 'maximize the asset' of the sixth overall pick in the draft. With blue chip prospects flying off the board, the Browns take one of their own in Caleb Downs. Cleveland can address the offensive line or wide receiver room later in the first round.
7. Washington Commanders: WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State
The Commanders are a prime candidate to trade back, having only six selections in this draft. Washington does not own their second or fourth-round picks, having surrendered both to Houston in the Laremy Tunsil deal. With trades off the table for this mock, Carnell Tate pairs up with Jayden Daniels after a defensive heavy start to the draft.
8. New Orleans Saints: WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State
Jordyn Tyson recently had a private workout in front of 20 NFL teams last Friday. Reports indicate he looked as twitchy and explosive as he did throughout his collegiate career. New Orleans shrugs off his injury history and commits to pairing him alongside Chris Olave.
9. Kansas City Chiefs: EDGE Rueben Bain Jr., Miami
Kansas City can go a multitude of different directions here. They ultimately decide to get the best player available and grab the talented Rueben Bain Jr. to the chagrin of the rest of the league.
10. New York Giants (via Cincinnati): T Francis Mauigoa, Miami
The Giants are back on the board after trading Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals. They benefit from the run of impact defensive players and skill positions throughout the top 10. Mauigoa has the ability to play both tackle and guard and will help keep Jaxson Dart upright in the city that never sleeps.
11. Miami Dolphins: CB Mansoor Delane, LSU
Best player available seems to be a common theme as the Dolphins continue the trend. At this point, there are multiple plug-and-play offensive linemen that could help Miami build the trenches. Mansoor Delane is just that good. He is the clear CB1 in this draft and will become a mainstay in Vice City's secondary. I would not be surprised to see him go earlier based on how excellent he is in coverage.
12. Dallas Cowboys: EDGE Keldric Faulk, Auburn
If Arizona is where the draft gets interesting, Dallas is where it starts. There are multiple directions the Cowboys could lean now that the "can't miss" prospects have been poached. It just depends on their draft board. Something tells me Faulk is sitting at the top given his massive potential on the edge.
13. Los Angeles Rams (via Atlanta): WR Makai Lemon, USC
Wide receiver is a popular pick to go to the Rams here at No. 13 and I see no reason to deviate now, especially with Makai Lemon still on the board. The Rams now have Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Lemon on their sideline. No wonder Matthew Stafford is running it back another year.
14. Baltimore Ravens: TE Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon
There has been a lot of talk of Baltimore leaning toward an offensive lineman at No. 14 following Tyler Linderbaum's departure. That is a need, but Kenyon Sadiq is staring them right in the face. Sadiq had one of the best combine performances from a tight end in NFL Scouting Combine history. With Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar both gone, Sadiq is the future at tight end in Baltimore.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: EDGE Akheem Mesidor, Miami
Let's take a moment and look at how the draft has unfolded. Multiple teams have bypassed fit for the best player available. There was a run on offensive skill players who were highly regarded throughout the scouting process. Plenty of offensive linemen remain, but with Tampa's line set for 2026, that need is not pressing. The Bucs also return three starting cornerbacks and added some depth in free agency, taking that position off the table. A handful of edge first-round rushers remain and Tampa Bay selects one of the most productive in the entire class.
Mesidor totaled 35.5 sacks and 52.5 tackles for loss across his six-year collegiate career, capping it with a 2025 season that saw him lead the ACC with 12.5 sacks and earn second-team All-American honors. He plays at full speed on every snap, bringing an infectious energy that elevates everyone around him. The type of pass rusher coaches covet, Mesidor will give Tampa Bay's defensive line an immediate jolt and production is sure to follow.
16. New York Jets (via Indianapolis): CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee
Jermod McCoy might be a top-ten talent in this class and I do not see a world where he falls any further. The Jets are able to add two high-value players to their defense in the first round.
17. Detroit Lions: T Spencer Fano, Utah
The Lions have loved the slide of offensive linemen in the draft and capitalize by selecting Spencer Fano. Detroit signed center Cade Mays this offseason, so Fano should fit right in at left tackle.
18. Minnesota Vikings: S Dillon Thieneman, Oregon
This may seem like an obvious pick and while nothing in the draft ever truly is, the fit is impossible to argue with. The Vikings are preparing for a future without Harrison Smith and Dillon Thieneman's athletic traits speak for themselves. His 4.35 forty-time and 41-inch vertical will prove useful in Minnesota's secondary.
19. Carolina Panthers: DL Kayden McDonald, Ohio State
Carolina is another wild card at this point in the draft, but I think they will continue to add to the defense. They signed edge rusher Jaelan Phillips to a significant contract and added Devin Lloyd to their linebacker room. Now, the Panthers look to their interior by selecting Kayden McDonald with the goal of shoring up their run defense.
20. Dallas Cowboys (via Green Bay): LB CJ Allen, Georgia
Allen is a third-year junior and an imposing force at linebacker who can fight for a starting spot in Dallas right away. He earned a starting role in Georgia's tenacious system as a true freshman and blossomed into a first-team All-American during his junior season. Allen led the Bulldogs in tackles (88), tackles for loss (8) and forced fumbles (2) in 2025. He looks to be the future leader of the Cowboys' front seven.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers: T Monroe Freeling, Georgia
Monroe Freeling is a massive offensive lineman who can move. He ran the forty at 4.93 seconds while standing at 6-foot-8, 315 pounds. The Steelers draft him to become their left tackle of the future, moving on from Broderick Jones.
22. Los Angeles Chargers: G Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State
The offensive linemen are starting to come off the board. Jim Harbaugh sits in disbelief that Olaivavega Ioane, the best guard in the class, is still available, but sometimes the board falls that way. If you took the average of when the first guard was selected over the past 10 drafts, it would be the 22nd pick, which happens to be exactly when Ioane's name is called. He is a prospect I believe will be viewed as a steal as early as Year One.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren has the size and speed you'd love to see in your secondary. Philadelphia is happy to make him an Eagle.
24. Cleveland Browns (via Jacksonville): T Kadyn Proctor, Alabama
The Browns took a luxury pick early and now look to continue to address the trenches. Cleveland signed multiple offensive linemen this offseason and take a big swing on Kadyn Proctor, a prospect overflowing with potential.
25. Chicago Bears: CB Chris Johnson, San Diego State
The ball just seems to find Chris Johnson. He is a natural in coverage with the athletic traits to make continuous plays in the secondary. In 2025, he led the Aztecs with three interceptions and eight pass deflections. Johnson has the size and measurables to be an impact player for the Bears in 2026.
26. Buffalo Bills: LB Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech
Jacob Rodriguez has been knocking on the first round's door all spring. Buffalo answers at No. 26. His instincts and relentless motor make him the perfect fit for Bills Mafia.
27. San Francisco 49ers: EDGE T.J. Parker
With Trent Williams' deal inked, San Francisco can look to bolster their edge rushing attack. T.J. Parker lived in the backfield for Clemson with over 30 percent of his career tackles being tackles for loss.
28. Houston Texans: DL Peter Woods, Clemson
The Texans need interior offensive line help, but with two second-round picks, Houston has the ability to add explosive defensive tackle Peter Woods first.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (via LA Rams): WR Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana
Kansas City knows a weapon when they see one. Omar Cooper Jr. is a natural after the catch, turning routine 10-yard gains into 20-plus yard explosions. Patrick Mahomes is going to be looking his way a lot.
30. Miami Dolphins: T Blake Miller, Clemson
Blake Miller doesn't have the flashiest tape, but his instincts and toughness are exactly what Miami covets as they gain assets. The Dolphins are betting those traits translate and history suggests they usually do.
31. New England Patriots: EDGE Cashius Howell, Texas A&M
The Patriots add a pure pass rusher to help get after the quarterback. Cashius Howell was the SEC's Defensive Player of the Year in 2025 and for good reason. The man totaled 11 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss during an unanimous All-American campaign.
32. Seattle Seahawks: EDGE Malachi Lawrence, UCF
Seattle grabs an edge of their own to close out the first round. Running back appears to be a significant need, but the Seahawks believe they can address the position in the upcoming rounds. Malachi Lawrence plays with urgency and relishes the process, making him a natural fit for Mike Macdonald's defense.
