Among the many positive statistics generated by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their 43-13 drubbing of the Carolina Panthers in Week Seven, which were headlined by 258 rushing yards and four takeaways, was a season-best 58.3% conversion rate on third downs on offense. The Buccaneers faced 12 third downs on the afternoon and converted seven of them, and there's a good reason why.
Of those 12 third downs, four only needed a single yard to be converted successfully, another three only needed two yards and another two only needed four yards. That a team would generally be better at converting third-and-short than third-and-long is so obviously intuitive that it need not be mentioned, but the Bucs in particular have seen drastic splits this season. They are currently converting 65.6% of third downs that need 1-3 yards, but only 19.1% of the ones that need seven or more yards.
Clearly, that goes back to the first statistic noted above, the Bucs' fourth-best rushing output in a single game in team history. While Sean Tucker had a 46-yard touchdown run and Kenny Gainwell added a nifty, weaving 29-yarder, those 258 yards were mostly built five or six at a time as the Bucs remarkably kept it on the ground for 49 of their 60 plays.
"It's wild," said quarterback Baker Mayfield, whose injured right thumb was mostly tested out on the exchange of the ball with his running backs. "I mean, that was obviously a really, really efficient day for us. Guys up front clearing the lanes out, backs were hitting their tracks, tight ends, receivers, everybody was blocking, so everybody was involved in it. But it's nice and easy for me when you're looking at it in second-and-3 or second-and-4 every single time."
Mayfield threw 11 passes, completing seven of them for 64 yards and a touchdown, but that low number of attempts is sure to be an outlier even if the run game remains strong. After all, that was the first time the Buccaneers won a game with 11 or fewer pass attempt since the 1970s, when the structure of NFL offenses was very, very different. Moving forward, a good rushing attack should contribute to opportunities for Mayfield to run play-action and hit some shots downfield, though he doesn't mind just handing it off as long as it's working.
"Absolutely; it should," said Mayfield of the run game creating passing opportunities. "That's what you hope for. But when it's working like that, you should continue to lean on it until the cows come home."
The Buccaneers will put the concept to test in just a couple more days when the Atlanta Falcons come to town for what is another critical game within the division. Atlanta has won at Raymond James Stadium in each of the last three seasons and Mayfield knows that getting manageable third downs and thus not having to put the ball in harm's way as often will be one of the keys to breaking that streak on Sunday.
"It's come down to turnovers – being able to end our drives offensively with a kick or the ball in our hands, and [have] no negative plays," he said. "It's a team that when you know each other so well, they play aggressive. Like I said earlier about the safeties, when they recognize plays, they make plays on the ball. So, [it's about] taking care of the rock, first and foremost, and staying ahead of the chains. We've got to continue to lean on the run game as well."
