The 2-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers return home to play another critical game against an NFC South foe, the 3-4 Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers won on the road in Charlotte in Week Seven in impressive fashion, handling the division-leading Carolina Panthers, 43-13, with an unstoppable ground game and a five-sack effort from the defensive front. Now they will try to make it 2-0 with the division, which appears to be up for grabs in 2026. Kickoff on Sunday is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium, with FOX handling the local broadcast.
The Buccaneers secured their third-largest margin of victory in a road game against the Panthers, scoring on offense, defense and special teams. Bucky Irving, Kenny Gainwell and Sean Tucker all contributed big numbers to a rushing attack that rang up 258 yards, fourth most in a game in franchise annals. Outside linebacker Yaya Diaby had three of the team's five sacks and defensive lineman Calijah Kancey scored on a fumble return to get the rout started in earnest. Zyon McCollum had his first interception of the season as the Bucs held Bryce Young, the NFL's leading passer, to 163 yards, and even became the first player in franchise history to return a blocked extra point attempt for a two-point conversion. Baker Mayfield only had to throw 11 passes in his return from a thumb injury but one of those was a nifty improvisational touchdown strike to wide receiver Tez Johnson.
Atlanta also notched a big win in Week Seven, knocking San Francisco from the unbeaten ranks with a 29-20 decision that was sealed by linebacker Kendal Daniels' interception and fumble recovery on the 49ers' last two drives. Quarterback Michael Penix had his best outing of the season so far, throwing for 213 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Running backBijan Robinson didn't score in the win but did pile up another 122 yards from scrimmage; he leads the NFL through Week Seven with 907 yards from scrimmage and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Heady safety Jessie Bates also had a pick off Purdy and forced a fumble while breaking up two passes. Atlanta's offense has averaged 31.0 points per game over the past five weeks, which includes an impressive 35-14 win at Atlanta as well as the most recent dispatching of the 49ers.
Here are four major storylines as well as four head-to-head player battles to keep an eye on as the Bucs square off against the Panthers on Sunday afternoon:
TOP STORYLINES
Who Is Actually the Class of the South? – In Week Seven, two of the four NFC South teams won in impressive fashion against one of the league's division leaders. The other two were beaten at home and scored a combined 23 points. This week, the two former teams coming off victories will square off at Raymond James Stadium when the Falcons visit the Buccaneers. Will the outcome of that game suggest that one of those two teams is actually the one to beat in the NFC South race? The Panthers, despite a 43-13 loss to the Buccaneers, would surely beg to differ and are, in fact, still in first place in the division, a half-game ahead of Atlanta and 1.5 up on the Bucs and Saints. The reality is that nothing will be decided on Sunday in Week Eight, as there is still quite a bit of intra-divisional play still to come. The Buccaneers, in fact, are just now playing their first two of six games against division foes. Still, giving how sharp both teams looked in Week Seven, Sunday's matchup definitely looks like an opportunity for one team to make a statement in a division race that is suddenly very tight and four teams deep despite none of them owning a winning record.
Which Team Will Be Able to Run the Ball? – The Bucs have run for 240-plus yards in two of their last three games, but it's worth noting that those games came against Dallas and Carolina teams that both ranked in the bottom five in the league in rush defense. Atlanta, meanwhile, has quietly built a very stout defensive front with Gervon Dexter, Brandon Dorlus and Maason Smith and is allowing only 88.9 rushing yards per game. Did that unit show some cracks last week, however, in allowing 123 yards to the 49ers, only 39 of which came from a banged-up Christian McCaffrey? Similarly, Atlanta's offense revolves around running back Bijan Robinson, who as noted above leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage. He runs behind a very strong offensive line anchored by tackle Jake Matthews and guard Chris Lindstrom. That group will have its work cut out for it against the NFL's second-ranked rush defense, which is reaping the benefits of adding A'Shawn Robinson next to Vita Vea to form an interior wall that is very difficult to crack. The Bucs want to form their offensive identity around a consistently productive rushing attack and first- and second-down successes to set up short third downs. The Falcons would surely love to take the pressure off Penix by getting Robinson going early and often.
Home Delivery – The Buccaneers have won two of their last three games, both victories coming in impressive fashion, and both on the road. Tampa Bay had a chance to get a leg up in the division with a three-game homestand in the first month but the losses snowballed against the Browns, Vikings and Panthers, and then two weeks later the team surrendered a 16-3 fourth-quarter lead in a dispiriting overtime defeat at the hands of the Steelers. Because this is a season in which all the NFC teams got home games for their "17th game" against an AFC opponent, the Buccaneers still have five more chances to notch victories in front of the home crowd, starting on Sunday against the Falcons. It is highly unlikely that Tampa Bay will come out on top of the crowded NFC South race if it doesn't start flexing its homefield advantage, which still includes visits from all three division foes.
Ramping Baker Up – The Buccaneers did not go into their Week Seven game against Carolina trying to pound the ball on the ground because they wanted to limit Baker Mayfield's exposure in his first game back from a dislocated thumb. The impetus for planning a run-heavy script was the Bucs' desire to control the game clock and keep Carolina's high-flying offensive off the field, and to hopefully expose what had been ranked as one of the NFL's most porous run defenses. Still, the unintended consequence of Mayfield only have to throw 11 passes, including only five down the field, wasn't exactly a bad thing. The quarterback wore a glove with a little extra protection behind his thumb and reported no ill effects from his first game action in a month, but didn't have to stress it very much. Obviously, that particular script is not going to happen often – the 11 passes were the fewest the Bucs have thrown in a victory since the 1970s – and at some point the Bucs are going to need the Mayfield who threw for 12,237 yards and 95 touchdowns over his first three seasons as the team's starting quarterback. The Bucs want to run the ball, as noted above, but given the Falcons' tough run defense will they potentially dial up the number and length of Mayfield's downfield attempts in his second start back from the injury?
KEY MATCHUPS
1. Falcons TE Kyle Pitts vs. Buccaneers S Tykee Smith
Kyle Pitts has been an issue for the Buccaneers' defense since the Falcons drafted him fourth overall in 2021, the earliest draft pick ever used on a tight end. He has missed a couple games in the head-to-head series over the last five years, but in the eight games he has played against Tampa Bay he has 629 yards (78.6) per game and six touchdowns, by far his best output against any Atlanta opponent. Though he got off to a bit of a slow start this season, with two catches in the first three weeks combined, he has five grabs in each of the Falcons' last three outings and has scored four touchdowns in that span. He was drafted so early because he has an elite combination of size, speed and athleticism for the tight end position and can make plays on all three levels of the defense. Last year in Week 15 he caught 11 passes for 166 yards and three touchdowns against the Buccaneers. The Bucs' defense won't have one specific defender assigned to covering Pitts, and surely linebacker Alex Anzalone will be a big part of that formula. But Atlanta does like to split Pitts out like a receiver and when that happens he could be covered by slot corner Keionte Scott or versatile safety Tykee Smith. Smith is a good matchup for the tight end as he has coverage skills but is also a hard-nosed defender who invites contact with bigger players and is a sure and rugged tackler. Smith is coming off a strong effort in the Bucs' win at Carolina in which he got his first interception of the season by baiting Bryce Young into a throw to what he thought was an uncovered John Metchie.
2. Buccaneers G Cody Mauch vs. Falcons DT Gervon Dexter
The Falcons made two trades to fortify the interior of their defensive front this offseason, getting Gervon Dexter from the Bears and Maason Smith from the Jaguars. Those two have slid in next to Brandon Dorlus, a 2024 fourth-round pick who is having a breakout season, and are making it tough for opponents to run the football. Atlanta's run defense, as noted above, ranks fourth in the NFL after finishing 24th last season. Dexter has also been getting pressure on opposing passers (as has Dorlus) and he ranks fourth among all NFL defensive tackles with 24 QB pressures. His 13.6% pressure rate ranks sixth in the league and they include 1.5 sacks. Cody Mauch is an integral part of a Buccaneers' offensive line that is starting to round into its dominant form from 2024 after a bit of an uneven start to the 2026 season. Mauch has steadily increased his size and strength since being drafted in the second round in 2023 and is capable of moving defenders off their spots in the run game. The Buccaneers' rushing attack has risen to third in the NFL primarily by running its backs between the tackles on gap schemes. In addition, StatsPass credits Mauch with only allowing one sack so far this season, none since Week Three, and he has only been called for one penalty in the last four games combined.
3. Falcons T Jake Matthews vs. Buccaneers OLB Yaya Diaby
Matthews, the sixth-overall back way back in the 2014 draft, is essentially an institution in Atlanta at this point, having started 203 games and counting over 13 seasons. He is a technically proficient blocker who uses his long arms to deliver quick punches to keep pass rushers off balance. Even at the age of 34, he still moves well in space, helping the Falcons spring Bijan Robinson on outside runs with regularity. Atlanta's rushing attack is ranked sixth in the league and the Falcons' line is coming off a very strong game against the 49ers in which Penix was not sacked once and only hit three times on 34 dropbacks. Matthews, however, will have a challenging matchup this Sunday against edge rusher Yaya Diaby, who primarily rushes the passer from his side of the line. Diaby is coming off the first three-sack game by a Buccaneer defender since Devin White in 2020, and he did it against Carolina's line basically with straight bull rushes. Diaby possesses a quick first step but that is best utilized when he converts speed to power and simply drives his man back into the quarterback's lap. Diaby has 16 QB pressures on the season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and is tied for the Bucs' lead with eight "quick" pressures, in which he gets to the passer in 2.5 seconds or less.
4. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield vs. Falcons S Jessie Bates
We don't often feature quarterbacks in this Key Matchups section because there really isn't one defender on the opposite side who is in a one-on-one battle with him. And, indeed, this is the first time Mayfield or any Bucs quarterback has appeared in this section. However, there are times when the opposing team has a very smart safety who is capable of matching wits with the opposing team's passer and affecting the passing game in a variety of ways. Bates belongs in that category. So far this season, Bates has 40 tackles, one interception, four passes defensed, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery. Now in his ninth season, Bates has 18 interceptions over the last four-plus seasons and he's been a second-team AP All-Pro in two of those campaigns, including last year. Mayfield will be playing his second game since returning from the right thumb dislocation that cost him three contests, and he will almost certainly be asked to throw more than the 11 passes he had in Carolina last Sunday. Mayfield is just as experienced as Bates and can diagnose how a defense is trying to trick him into the wrong decisions with the football. He will need to be aware of Bates' location at all times on Sunday.
