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Vikings-Buccaneers: Top Storylines & Key Matchups in Week Three

The Bucs have a sense of urgency to get into the win column, but they have to deal with a blitz-happy Vikings defense and mobile quarterback Kyler Murray, who is expected to start after clearing the NFL's concussion protocol

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers get another dose of home cooking in Week Three as they return to Raymond James Stadium to take on the visiting Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, September 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, and the game will be broadcast locally by FOX.

The Buccaneers are looking for their first win of 2026 after dropping a tight, water-logged 23-19 decision to the visiting Cleveland Browns in Week Two. Tampa Bay will be seeking to avoid its first 0-3 start since 2014 while also keeping up in the NFC South race, where they are only one game behind the co-leading Panthers and Saints. Tampa Bay's issues have included a -4 turnover ratio, tied for second-worst in the NFL, seven sacks allowed on quarterback Baker Mayfield and offensive struggles in the red zone. They have gotten a strong start to the season, however, from running back Bucky Irving (183 yards from scrimmage, 5.4 yards per carry) and rookie linebacker Josiah Trotter (21 tackles, 1.0 sack and a pick-six).

The Vikings have only allowed 12.5 points per game through two weeks, in part because their blitz-fueled pass-rush has produced eight sacks and has helped create four takeaways. Third-year man Dallas Turner, a first-round draft pick in 2024, looks like he's on his way to a breakout season with 3.0 sacks already while cornerbacks Byron Murphy and James Pierre already have interceptions. Minnesota has won its first two games despite losing new quarterback Kyler Murray to a concussion early in his Vikings debut. Carson Wentz has taken over and has throwfor 276 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Wentz has wisely adopted the strategy of throwing the ball as often as possible to Justin Jefferson, who has 147 yards and two touchdowns on 11 catches through a pair of contests.

Here are four major storylines as well as four head-to-head player battles to keep an eye on as the Bucs attempt to make their first mark in the win column this season.

View the top images of Tampa Bay's game against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, September 20, 2026

TOP STORYLINES

'W' Urgency – After five straight 2-0 season starts, including the last four under Head Coach Todd Bowles, the Bucs find themselves in strange territory after losses to Cincinnati and Cleveland. On Monday, Bowles acknowledged that an 0-2 start creates some urgency to turn things around as quickly as possible. "I think [there is] always pressure until you get your first win out [of] the way," he said. "You know, you try to get it out the way at the beginning of the season so you don't have to worry about it anymore. It's not a different kind of pressure, so to speak. It's probably a different kind of urgency – not that you're not playing urgent already – but you just want to get that first win on the board." The Buccaneers, again are just one game off the division pace with 15 outings still to go, and they play in a grouping with a team, the Panthers, that rebounded from an 0-2 start to win the South just last year. While 12.5% of teams that started 0-2 since 2002 went on to make the playoffs, including six in just the last two years alone, only four teams that started 0-3 since 1990 have reached the postseason. The Buccaneers have only done so once, in the strike-shortened 1982 season. By the end of the weekend Tampa Bay could be tied for first in the NFC South or it could be looking at a very steep mountain to climb, depending on whether or not they can notch that first 'W.'

Get Ready, Here They Come – When facing a defense coordinated by Brian Flores, the question isn't whether you will be dealing with any blitzes, but how many plays you'll get in which he doesn't send an extra soul or two towards the quarterback. The Vikings have routinely led the league in blitz percentage since Flores' arrival in 2023, but they are taking it to another early in the 2026 season. According to Pro Football Focus, through two games Minnesota's defense has blitzed on 79.3% of its snaps, by far the highest rate in the league. The Carolina Panthers, at 53.2% are the only other team even over 50%. It is working so far, with the Vikings recording eight sacks through those two games and holding opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating of 75.6. The Buccaneers will need to improve to keep this from becoming a significant problem in Week Three, as Mayfield has already absorbed seven sacks in two outings. He has not as of yet faced a high blitz rate (21.1%) but he has been pressured on 40.3% of his dropbacks and has amassed a -20.1 EPA on plays where he took sacks. Of course, while the Vikings have made heavy blitzing into a winning strategy, that approach does also offer opportunities for the offense if it can hold up in protection. That's hinted at in the 258.0 passing yards per game Minnesota has allowed, the fifth most in the league.

Kyler's Return – As noted above, Kyler Murray sustained a concussion in Week One after throwing just five passes, with Carson Wentz finishing off that 39-22 win over Green Bay and remaining at the helm for last Sunday's 9-3 smothering of the Bears. However, Head Coach Kevin O'Connell announced on Monday that Murray has now cleared the NFL's concussion protocol and will return to the starting lineup when the Vikings come to Tampa. Murray was one of the most consequential signings of the 2026 offseason, as Minnesota snapped him up just two days after the Cardinals released him. With Arizona still footing the ball on Murray's sizeable salary in 2026, the Vikings were able to add a very experienced starter at the game's most important position despite having virtually no cap wiggle room. Though his time in Arizona ended on a sour note, Murray has at times in his career drawn NFL MVP consideration and can be one of the league's most electric dual threats. The first-overall pick in the 2019 draft, Murray has thrown for over 20,000 yards in his career and also run for more than 3,200. If there was any blemish to Wentz's two-game cameo it's that he took six sacks on just 45 dropbacks; Murray's elusiveness could make it much harder for the Buccaneers to add to those totals.

The Biggest Takeaway – The Buccaneers have been on the wrong end of a 5-1 turnover ratio through two games, and probably would not still be winless if those numbers were flipped. Tampa Bay's five giveaways on offense have resulted in 27 points scored, just one behind Atlanta for the most in the NFL, and that's obviously very significant when the team's two losses have come by six and four points. Meanwhile, Minnesota has its own 4-1 edge in takeaways so far this season, tying for the top turnover margin in the league to this point. Those have resulted in 14 points for Minnesota and only three for their opponents. Over the last two seasons, the Buccaneers are 6-2 when they have won the turnover battle and have lost all seven games in which they gave it away more than their opponents. Over the past 10 seasons, the Bucs have a .182 winning percentage in games with a negative turnover ratio and that drops to .111 if they lose that battle by two or more giveaways.

KEY MATCHUPS

1. Vikings RB Aaron Jones vs. Buccaneers S Tykee Smith

Through two games that have raised concerns about the Bucs' tackling on defense, third-year safety Tykee Smith has been a bright spot in that regard. He is one of the team's surest tacklersand he clearly enjoys delivering big hits. He also reacts quickly to plays in front of him, particularly when he's in the box, and against the Browns he registered three tackles behind the line of scrimmage, the most he's ever had in one game. Tykee is more likely of the Bucs' two safeties to play up near the line of scrimmage, which means he is an important part of the team's run defense. Tampa Bay ranks fourth in the NFL in both rushing yards allowed per game (75.0) and yards allowed per carry (3.0), and continuing that effectiveness will be critical on Sunday against the Vikings, who have run the ball on 55.4% of their plays so far, the highest run percentage in the NFL, and that goes up to 69.0% on first-and-10, also the highest number in the league. Jordan Mason, one half of the team's intended backfield duo, suffered a thumb fracture in the season opener and is currently on injured reserve but Aaron Jones has kept that ground attack going even as he approaches his 32nd birthday in December. Jones has run 35 times for 145 yards (4.1 average) and one touchdown and overall the Vikings have put up 113.0 rushing yards per game. Smith will try to help the Bucs' defense stifle the run game early so that they can make a more concerted effort to put pressure on Murray.

2. Buccaneers T Tristan Wirfs vs. Vikings OLB Dallas Turner

Edge rusher Dallas Turner, a first-round pick in 2024, has shot out of the gates extremely hot in his third NFL season. Through two games he has a team-leading 3.0 sacks and he has also been credited by NGS with 20 (!) quarterback pressures, the most in the NFL by a comfortable margin. Detroit's Aidan Hutchinson is second with 14. That has broken down to exactly 10 pressures in each of Turner's two games so far. The threat posed by Turner starts with a very quick first step, and he has great bend to get around the opposing tackle on a speed rush. He also has long arms that he puts to good use and a well-developed toolkit of pass-rush moves. So far in 2026 his snaps have been split almost evenly between the two ends of the Vikings' defensive front, so at some point on Sunday he will be doing battle with Tristan Wirfs, the two-time first-team Associated Press All-Pro who is widely regarded as one of the two or three best left tackles in the league. Wirfs has the size and the nimble feet to keep pass-rushers at bay whether they are coming at him with speed or power moves. This is a significant challenge for both players, Turner because he won't face too many better all-around blockers and Wirfs because his opponent comes wrapped in a confusing blitz-heavy scheme.

3. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson vs. Buccaneers CB Zyon McCollum

Quarterback struggles and upheavals in 2025 contributed to Jefferson putting up the lowest numbers of his incredible career so far, though he still managed to surpass 1,000 receiving yards for the sixth straight season to start his career. Early in 2026, he has made it clear that he still belongs on the very short list of candidates for the title of best receiver in the NFL. He has caught 11 passes for 147 yards and two scores already; no other Viking has more than 65 receiving yards. Jefferson is a route-running technician capable of creating separation very quickly at all three levels, and he is always a threat to tack on yards after the catch. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Jefferson has created 1,478 receiving yards over expected since he entered the league in 2020, second in the NFL in that span to Ja'Marr Chase. So far this season, he has seen plenty of action out wide on both sides of the Vikings' formation, and when he lines up to the offense's right on Sunday he will mostly encounter cornerback Zyon McCollum. Speaking of Chase, McCollum was instrumental in Week One in holding the Bengals' superstar receiver to just 12 yards on two catches. McCollum has the size and length to match up with the NFL's bigger receivers and he has the speed to catch up on deep-breaking routes. Through two games he already has 12 tackles and two passes defensed. He has performed well on opposing running plays that have gone wide to his side, but this Sunday his most pressing assignment will be to help limit the damage caused by Jefferson.

4. Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin vs. Vikings CB Byron Murphy

Cornerback Byron Murphy starts on the outside for Minnesota in base coverages and if the Vikings have to go to nickel personnel on early downs they often employ safety Joshua Metellus as a "big nickel." On third downs, however, the Vikings tend to move Murphy into the slot and bring in James Pierre as their other outside corner. Meanwhile, Chris Godwin does his best work for the Buccaneers out of the slot and throughout his career has thrived in particular on third downs. Godwin can win with physicality against man coverage and work the soft spots against zone, and he is also a master at taking tunnel screens and picking and fighting his way through the defense to get just enough to move the sticks. Murphy has very good short-area quickness and fluid hips, which are traits that make him well-suited for operating in the slot and sticking with pass-catchers in traffic. So far this season he already has 15 tackles, an interception and three passes defensed.

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