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Fantasy Corner: Trade Deadline + TB-WAS

With the fantasy football trade deadline looming and the playoffs just a few short weeks away, we take a look at the schedule ahead for the Buccaneer stars.

When the NFL weeks start rolling into the double-digits, things start getting serious for all the fantasy football owners out there. Teams are testing the strength of their bench as we navigate the bye week labyrinth, next week marks the fantasy football trade deadline in most standard leagues, and we're running down the home stretch of the regular season, fighting for a top spot to get into the playoffs.

That's why this week, we're taking a shift from the normal start-'em/sit-'em talk and looking ahead at what the Buccaneers have on tap for the remainder of the season. Whether you're fighting to get in the top six or looking to build the ultimate roster for your playoff sweep, it is important to look forward a few weeks before the trade deadline to find your optimal lineup for when it counts the most.

Hate planning ahead? Don't worry, just jump down to the bottom to check out which fantasy big shots from Buccaneers vs. Redskins matchup should be making your starting lineup this week. Down the Stretch

Let's look ahead to the most pivotal weeks of the fantasy football season and find the Buccaneers that have the best matchups. Looking at the upcoming fantasy strength of schedule and comparing it to similar fantasy players can help you decide whether to hold onto a specific player, whether to start working on some trades before time runs out, and whether any Buccaneers players are going to be relevant in your title chase.

Most fantasy footballers will see their league's playoffs begin in Week 14 and wrap up after the Monday Night showdown of Week 16. Hopefully you are not in the unlucky minority that has the Championship game scheduled during Week 17, when many top players are resting up for the actual playoffs. There are few things worse than riding stellar performances from Aaron Rodgers or Marshawn Lynch or Demaryius Thomas just to bench them when the trophy is on the line because their team has locked up a bye. Shameful.

For the purposes of this article however, we will ignore those poor souls and focus solely on the remaining weeks 11-16, which are all the playoff weeks and the important final games of the fantasy regular season.

To find the strength of schedule in our time frame, we'll take a look at the defensive rankings of all 32 NFL teams against the four main positions: quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end. A ranking of 1 shows that they are the best team against that particular position, a ranking of 32 means they give up the most points. All points are in a standard scoring format.

vs QB

vs RB

vs WR

vs TE

Atlanta

19

32

25

9

Arizona

11

2

24

24

Baltimore

17

1

29

9

Buffalo

5

3

14

11

Carolina

27

28

26

13

Chicago

32

15

23

32

Cincinnati

9

29

2

26

Cleveland

3

16

17

6

Dallas

13

12

4

30

Denver

26

5

10

28

Detroit

1

8

1

12

Green Bay

11

19

18

15

Houston

16

23

31

4

Indianapolis

22

20

12

25

Jacksonville

19

24

21

21

Kansas City

7

4

8

17

Miami

2

14

5

11

Minnesota

4

25

11

3

New England

14

26

3

20

New Orleans

21

21

28

1

NY Giants

24

31

10

28

NY Jets

30

6

22

31

Oakland

21

30

7

19

Philadelphia

29

18

30

2

Pittsburgh

15

13

15

22

San Diego

24

18

16

6

San Francisco

6

9

19

16

Seattle

8

7

6

29

St. Louis

25

10

27

9

Tampa Bay

28

22

32

15

Tennessee

13

27

13

19

Washington

31

11

14

23

Well, that was fun. We see that Baltimore is fantastic against the run, but at the far end of the spectrum against receivers. The Saints are in the bottom third in all categories except tight end, where they are the best. And the Buccaneers might be in for a bit of trouble in Week 14 against the best fantasy defensive team, the Detroit Lions. If you want to find the rest of the players on your fantasy team, just use the chart above to plug them in.

From this information, we can simply plug it in to any player of our choosing to find their strength of schedule (SoS) for the remainder of the year. As this is the Buccaneers fantasy corner, we'll look at the Bucs from each position.

Wk 11

Wk 12

Wk 13

Wk 14

Wk 15

Wk 16

SoS

Player

WAS

CHI

CIN

DET

CAR

GB

Avg.

QB McCown

31

32

9

1

27

11

18.5

RB Martin/Rainey

11

15

29

8

28

19

18.3

WR Jackson/Evans

14

23

2

1

26

18

14.0

TE Seferian-Jenkins

23

32

26

12

13

15

20.2

With 32 teams, you can assume that the average SoS would be 16. Knowing that, The Bucs are in pretty solid shape for a nice fantasy run to end the season, minus one killer week in Detroit. If you take out Week 14, the averages skyrocket. McCown's SoS becomes 22, RB becomes 20.4, WR becomes 16.2 (with a tough week remaining against the Bengals), and TE is 21.8.

So, we know that the Bucs have above average matchups, but let's go a step farther and compare them to players with like-ranked fantasy players from other teams. First, our quarterbacks.

Fantasy PPG

Quarterback

Avg. SoS

16.3

Tony Romo

27.2

12.6

Andy Dalton

21.8

14

Josh McCown

18.5

13.8

Alex Smith

17.0

14.9

Joe Flacco

16.4

12.8

Brian Hoyer

16.3

13

Cam Newton

15.0

16.9

Jay Cutler

11.3

The first column shows the average fantasy points per game. McCown has 49 total over three and a half weeks, so I compared him to players averaging near 14 points per game. Stacking them all up based on average strength of schedule shows us that McCown might not be a bad bet to have stored on your bench as we near the playoffs. He is owned in just 7.5% of leagues and should your starting quarterback go down, McCown is a strong safety net to have. He faces the two most generous defense in the next two weeks, and a 27th-ranked Carolina team in Week 15.

This chart also perfectly illustrates the value of this exercise when it comes to fantasy football trades. Jay Cutler may average more points per game than Tony Romo, but his upcoming schedule is brutal in comparison. Cutler may have the toughest road through the fantasy playoffs while Romo very likely has the easiest of any QB.

From quarterback, we move along to running back. With injuries and a few RB-by-committee games, it's hard to nail down an average performance, so we'll combine the weeks of Martin and Rainey as a starter (about 7.8 points per game) to act as our fantasy baseline.

Fantasy PPG

Running Back

Avg. SoS

8.9

Chris Ivory

19.0

6.8

Trent Richardson

18.7

7.8

RB Martin/Rainey

18.3

6.9

Joique Bell

17.5

8.3

Frank Gore

17.3

7.6

Steven Jackson

16.5

8.4

LeSean McCoy

14.7

8.1

Shane Vereen

14.2

Of course, at running back, you need to keep in mind the system of that offense. One of the big reasons that you shouldn't be trading LeSean McCoy to pick up Bobby Rainey is that they are not used the same. However, should a consistent starter emerge from the Buccaneers, we see that their lineup is allowing more points than average. Pro tip on the Chris Ivory number: when the fantasy playoffs begin in Week 14, Ivory will face the 25th, 27th and 26th ranked defenses. Worth looking into.

At receiver, we'll look at both Evans and Jackson. Of the Buccaneers positions, WR seems to face the hardest road based on SoS.

Fantasy PPG

Wide Receiver

Avg. SoS

10.1

Kelvin Benjamin

22.6

10.7

Mohamed Sanu

22.2

10.7

Julio Jones

21.3

9.7

Sammy Watkins

14.8

10.5

Mike Evans

14.0

8.8

Brandon Marshall

12.8

Fantasy PPG

Wide Receiver

Avg. SoS

6.6

Pierre Garcon

21.7

6.9

Kendall Wright

21.5

6.6

James Jones

15.3

6.4

Reggie Wayne

15.0

6.7

Vincent Jackson

14.0

7.3

John Brown

12.2

Kelvin Benjamin has the sweetest run of those surveyed through our six weeks, but he still has a bye week remaining. In the fantasy playoffs, Benjamin faces the 28th, 32nd and 17th ranked defenses. Brandon Marshall has a brutal final four games, having to face three top-four defenses. He could be worth a move.

Finally, we move onto Austin Seferian-Jenkins. He is owned in just 1.9% of leagues, but had a decent game last week and has two scores in the last three games. Because of his SoS, he could be worth adding to your bench just in case.

Fantasy PPG

Tight End

Avg. SoS

4.7

Zach Ertz

24.3

4.1

Lance Kendricks

21.3

3.9

Austin Seferian-Jenkins

20.2

3.7

Scott Chandler

19.8

3.6

Jace Amaro

12.8

All those listed here are bench tight ends, but on your race to the playoffs, you could be looking to add one to your stable as an emergency backup. Ertz has a great playoff run, thanks to two meetings with the 30th-ranked Cowboys defense. Seferian-Jenkins has the best run up to the playoffs, with an average opponent ranking of 27.

To drive the point home one more time, strength of schedule is just a factor of fantasy football performance. Between now and the end of the season, these numbers will move around, players will move up and down in rank and so on, but hopefully this chart gives you a good idea going into the trade deadline week about which players are worth holding onto and which players you want to get on your team thanks to a very easy upcoming schedule. Buccaneers vs. Redskins

To wrap this up, as promised, we'll take a look at our upcoming game, and both teams have some solid plays this week.

At quarterback, Robert Griffin III faces the Bucs 28th-ranked defense vs. quarterbacks. They have yet to be tested by a true mobile quarterback so far this season (Cam Newton was slowed by injury in Week One) and with a bye week under his belt, RGIII should be treated as 100%. He is a solid play this week in all formats.

For the Buccaneers, Josh McCown is also a solid play in deeper and 2QB leagues and could be a bargain bye in weekly leagues. The Redskins give up the second most points to opposing quarterbacks, having allowed 18 touchdown passes (sixth most) and only three interceptions (last in the league). Despite two INTs last week, McCown still posted 19 fantasy points.

RB Alfred Morris has proven to be the workhorse back for Washington, putting up 165 yards, three TDs and 36 fantasy points over the last two weeks. He should be started if you have him.

Running back for Tampa Bay is a bit dicier. Doug Martin will be out again this week, but no back stepped up last week to claim #1 status. Rainey has just six carries for 14 yards, Charles Sims had eight for 23. The two combined for six fantasy points. Washington ranks 11th against RBs as compared to last week's opponent, Atlanta, which was last in the league. Keep an eye on the RB situation for future weeks, but no Buccaneers back is a safe start here.

There are four big names at wide receiver and all four should be seen as at least a FLEX option this week. DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon for the Redskins have the advantage of facing the league's lowest-ranked fantasy defense vs. WRs. Jackson has at least 100 yards in four of the last five games and is always a deep ball threat. Garcon struggled with Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy under center, but should see his numbers rise as he gets back into rhythm with RGIII. He is a stronger play in PPR than standard, but still a must-start this week.

Mike Evans leads the Bucs with 10.3 fantasy points per game. He has 249 yards and three scores over the last two weeks, leading to the most fantasy points of any NFL wide receiver in that time frame. The Redskins rank 14th against opposing WRs, but are susceptible to long passes, which have been big for Evans recently. The average wide receiver touchdown distance against the Redskins this year: 24.1 yards. Vincent Jackson is no stranger to the deep ball either and could see more passes his way as defenses start respecting Evans's play. He has double-digit fantasy points just once this season, but can still be considered a FLEX start.

Both teams boast a sleeper tight end. Niles Paul leads the Redskins in points at the position, but Jordan Reed should see the most time. The Bucs have allowed just 13 TE points over their last four games, but Reed has a history of fantasy success with Griffin under center. He is a risky play here. As mentioned previously, Seferian-Jenkins has shown signs of life over the last few weeks, but is too far from consistent to be a fantasy must-play just yet.

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