Remarkably, despite extending their losing streak to four games with a three-point defeat in Miami and falling to 7-9 on the season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can still lock up a fifth straight NFC South title and a sixth straight playoff berth in Week 18. With the Carolina Panthers also falling to Seattle on Sunday to slip to 8-8, the South championship will be served up in Tampa this coming weekend, with a side dish in Atlanta. More on that below.
The top seed in the conference is still to be decided, and that will happen when the Seattle Seahawks visit San Francisco on Saturday for a matchup between the two hottest teams in the NFC. That game will also decide the winner of the NFC West, which has already had three of its four teams lock up playoff spots.
Green Bay lost to Baltimore last Saturday but then found themselves in the playoffs a day later when the Detroit Lions lost to the Minnesota Vikings. Chicago lost a high-scoring thriller in San Francisco but remains in the two seed while being eliminated from the race for the top overall spot in the conference. By virtue of its win in Buffalo on Sunday, the Eagles moved into a tie with the Bears at 11-5 each but Chicago still has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Eagles.
Six of the seven spots in the NFC playoff field have been locked up, as the Seahawks, Bears, Eagles, 49ers, Rams and Packers have all clinched spots. There are, however, multiple seeding issues still to be decided, as well as the NFC South champion. Here's how the conference playoff hunt stands heading into Week 18:
- Seattle (13-3), NFC West Leader
The Seahawks win in Charlotte not only kept the Buccaneers' playoff hopes alive but also kept Seattle in charge of its own fate in terms of the top conference seed and the first-round bye that comes with it. However, they have to protect that spot on the road as they go to San Francisco on Saturday, as noted above. The 49ers already beat the Seahawks in Seattle in Week One, so if they finish the sweep they will take the NFC West crown. If Seattle does relinquish the division title to the 49ers, they will fall no farther than the fifth seed, which would mean a first-round trip to whichever team wins the NFC South.
- Chicago (11-5), NFC North Leader
The Bears finish their season at home against a fading Lions team and would lock up the number-two seed with a win. However, if they fall to the Lions for a second time this season – Jared Goff and company hung 52 points on them in Week Two – they could drop down one spot depending upon the outcome of Philadelphia's home game against Washington. That would likely be the difference between playing Green Bay or either the Rams or 49ers.
- Philadelphia (11-5), NFC East Leader
The Eagles held on to a one-point in Buffalo after a fierce Bills rally at the end, and in so doing gave themselves a chance to climb up one more spot in the conference seeding, depending upon the Bears' outcome against Detroit. The Eagles will play the Commanders for the second time in three weeks, and in Week 16 they won in Washington, 29-18. Their loss at home to the Bears in Week 13 looms large, as that is the reason they would need a win and a Chicago loss to move into the second spot.
- Carolina (8-8), NFC South Leader
The Panthers had a chance to clinch the division in Week 17 but saw a close game unravel in the second half as the Seahawks scored 24 points to win going away, 27-10. Still, Carolina can sew up their first NFC South title since 2015 with a win in Tampa on Saturday. Even if the Buccaneers prevail in that game, the Panthers would still win the division with an 8-9 record if the Falcons beat the Saints in Atlanta on Sunday. In that scenario, the Bucs, Panthers and Falcons would all be 8-9 and the first tiebreaker to apply is head-to-head results between all three teams. The Bucs would have a split against both the Panthers and Falcons, but Carolina's two-game sweep of Atlanta would give them the edge and the division title.
- San Francisco (12-4), Wild Card #1
As described earlier, the 49ers can jump all the way to the NFC's top seed if they can win at home against Seattle on Saturday night. The 49ers have won six in a row and have averaged 35.7 points per game in that span, but the Seahawks have also won six in a row while allowing just 16.0 points per game. Alternately, if the 49ers lose on Saturday, they will end up as the fifth seed if the Rams also lose to Arizona and as the sixth seed if the Rams win.
- L.A. Rams (11-5), Wild Card #2
The Rams can no longer win the NFC West, so their only two possible landing spots are the fifth or sixth seed. If the 49ers win the division, Los Angeles will be the sixth seed whether it wins or loses against the Cardinals because Seattle already has 13 wins and would claim the fifth seed. If Seattle wins the division, the Rams would pass San Francisco for the fifth seed based on a better record against common opponents.
- Green Bay (9-6-1), Wild Card #3
The Packers are locked into the seventh seed and will play on the road against the second seed in the first round of the playoffs, meaning a trip to either Chicago or Philadelphia. The Packers lost in Chicago, 22-16, just two weeks ago. They also lost at home to the Eagles, 10-7, in Week 10. Green Bay's last game is at Minnesota, against a Vikings team it beat, 23-6, at Lambeau Field in Week 12.
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On the outside…
- Tampa Bay (7-9)
The Buccaneers got some additional bad news on Monday after a tough weekend when the Falcons beat the Rams on a last-minute field goal on Monday night. As described above in the Carolina section, that keeps alive the possibility of a three-way tie at 8-9 between the Bucs, Panthers and Falcons, and even though Atlanta has already been eliminated from the division title race its presence in the tiebreaker works against Tampa Bay. Thus, if the Buccaneers are victorious on Saturday afternoon they will still need New Orleans to win in Atlanta on Sunday for Tampa Bay to claim its fifth straight NFC South crown.
What Lies Ahead for Tampa Bay:
A long weekend, potentially. The Buccaneers will not have the opportunity to break out t-shirts and hats in the locker room at Raymond James Stadium on Saturday even if they beat the Panthers. The Saints and Falcons are scheduled to play at 1:00 p.m. in Atlanta on Sunday, so Tampa Bay and Carolina will both be rooting for a division foe on Sunday if Tampa Bay gets the win on Saturday. If the Bucs do end up with the division title, they will play at home in the opening round of the playoffs against either the 49ers, Rams or Seahawks.
