The NFC saw its top three playoff seeds get rearranged in Week 13, with the Chicago Bears ascending to the top spot for the first time on the strength of a five-game winning streak. That fifth win came against Philadelphia on Black Friday, which in turned knocked the Eagles down to third in the conference standings. The Rams fell from first to second thanks to their 31-28 loss to the Panthers in Charlotte.
All of which means the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now back within two games of the number-one seed and a first-round bye, and just one game behind Philadelphia for the third seed (although that quest is complicated by the Bucs' head-to-head loss to the Eagles in Week Four).Otherwise, not much changed for Tampa Bay, as its win over Arizona coupled with that Carolina result means the Bucs are still in first place by a half game over the Carolina Panthers in the NFC South, and thus hanging on to the fourth seed.
In Week 14, the Bucs will continue a critical three-game homestand with a visit from the division-rival New Orleans Saints. At 2-10, the Saints have been officially eliminated from playoff contention (along with the Cardinals and Giants) but have a history of playing very well in Tampa, winning in five of their last seven trips to Raymond James Stadium. Here's how the conference playoff hunt stands heading into Week 14:
1. Chicago (9-3), NFC North Leader
According to ESPN Research, this is the latest in a season the Bears have held first place in the NFC standings since the end of the 2006 campaign. Just four weeks ago Chicago was in eighth place and outside the playoff field, but wins since then over the Giants, Vikings, Steelers and Eagles have steadily moved them up the list. Though they have the same record as the Rams, the Bears get the top spot thanks to a superior record against NFC teams (6-2 vs. 4-3). The Bears are still up by just a half-game in the division standings over the 8-3-1 Packers, however, and the rubber is about to meet the road, as those two teams play this weekend in Green Bay and again in Chicago in Week 16.
2. L.A. Rams (9-3), NFC Wast Leader
The Rams saw their own six-game winning streak snapped in Charlotte and that ended (for the moment) their brief stay atop the conference hierarchy. As noted, they lose the first-place tiebreaker due to conference record and do not have a date with the Bears during the regular season. Of more pressing concern for the Rams is maintaining first place in the ultra-competitive NFC West. Seattle actually has the same record as L.A. but the Rams beat the Seahawks in Week 11. Those two teams will meet again in Seattle in Week 16. The San Francisco 49ers are just a half-game back at 9-4 and will be idle this week, so it's possible the West could have a three-way tie for first heading into Week 15 of Seattle loses in Atlanta and the Rams lose in Arizona.
3. Philadelphia (8-4), NFC East Leader
Consecutive losses for Dallas and the Bears have pushed the Eagles down the conference standings a couple spots but they still have a decent lead over the 6-5-1 Cowboys, with whom they have a season split. As it is, however, tiebreakers aren't likely to come into play in the NFC East title hunt thanks to that tie the Cowboys have on their record. The Eagles have a somewhat favorable schedule ahead, first heading to Los Angeles to play a banged-up Chargers squad before getting two games against the 3-9 Washington Commanders and one against the 2-10 Las Vegas Raiders. The toughest test awaiting Philly down the stretch is in Buffalo in Week 17.
4. Tampa Bay (7-5), NFC South Leader
With the Panthers finally getting their bye in Week 14, the Buccaneers will finish the weekend with either a full-game lead in a division or in a tie for first with Carolina at 7-6 each. In that latter scenario, the Buccaneers would still be in first place in the division thanks to the tiebreakers. The Bucs and Panthers have not met yet, so that tiebreaker is skipped. The next one is record within the division, and if the Bucs lost to the Saints both they and the Panthers would have 2-1 marks against NFC South foes. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents, which the Bucs would win with a 5-4 mark compared to 4-5 for the Panthers. The difference in that competition is actually Tampa Bay's most recent win, as they beat Arizona but the Cardinals defeated Carolina all the way back in Week Two. Of course, all of that is likely moot as the two head-to-head games with Carolina still to come will likely determine the division.
5. Seattle (9-3), Wild Card #1
The Seahawks had a very enjoyable Week 13. They pounded the Minnesota Vikings, 26-0, for their sixth win in their last seven outings and they moved into a tie with the Rams in the NFC West due to the upset in Carolina. The only loss in those last seven games was to the Rams in Los Angeles in Week 11, so the most critical game left for the Seahawks is the rematch with L.A. in Seattle in Week 18. Next up, though, is a trip to Atlanta to play the 4-8 Falcons, who are not officially eliminated from playoff contention.
6. Green Bay (8-3-1), Wild Card #2
Green Bay also had a very pleasant Week 13 and had the maximum amount of time to enjoy it after winning in Detroit in the early game on Thanksgiving. As noted above, the very competitive NFC North will be on the line in the next three weeks with Green Bay's home-and-away series with the Bears, and Green Bay gets the first shot at Lambeau Field this weekend. The Packers recently did lose consecutive home games to Carolina and Philadelphia, but they have won their other four contests at Lambeau this season.
7. San Francisco (9-4), Wild Card #3
Like Carolina, San Francisco is one of the last four teams to get their bye this week and will be hoping they see the rest of the division fall for them as they wait for Week 15. The 49ers have won three straight games by double-digit margins and will come out of their break with a home date against the one-win Tennessee Titans.
**
On the outside…
8. Detroit (7-5)
The Lions' post-bye week struggles continued in Week 13 as they have now lost three of their last five, including two at home against division rivals. It doesn't get any easier for the Lions as their next two dates are with the red-hot Cowboys on Thursday night and with the second-seeded Rams in Los Angeles in Week 15. A visit to Chicago in the regular-season finale also looms. Detroit is not looking good in terms of tiebreakers, either, with a 1-3 mark in divisional play and a 4-4 record against NFC opponents.
9. Dallas (6-5-1)
The Cowboys are making things interesting in the NFC East with a three-game winning streak that most recently includes wins over both teams that were in the Super Bowl last season. Dallas' 3-4-1 record in conference play doesn't look great but is probably irrelevant since that early-season tie with the Packers means they are not likely to end up in actual tie with anybody in the standings (unless it's Green Bay!). The sagging Lions are likely the biggest challenge left on the Cowboys' schedule, which also includes upcoming contests against the Vikings, Commanders and Giants.
9. Carolina (7-6)
The Panthers are two games out of the last Wild Card spot at the moment and have a head-to-head loss against the team currently occupying that spot, the 49ers. Of course, it is clear that Carolina's most likely – and quite plausible – path to the playoffs is the NFC South title. The Buccaneers have captured that crown four years in a row but will have to defend it directly at the end of the season when they face the Panthers in Weeks 16 and 18. After their bye, Carolina heads to New Orleans but has a tougher draw in Week 17 at home against Seattle.
What Lies Ahead for Tampa Bay:
As explained above, the Buccaneers will technically remain in first place no matter the outcome of this weekend's game against the Saints. However, with those two games against Carolina looming, the Bucs know they have little wiggle room and, as Baker Mayfield has noted several times in the last week, are already in "playoff mode." For of the Bucs' final five games are against NFC South opponents, but three of them will be at Raymond James Stadium.
