After a very eventful Week 16 that gave the NFL audience first-place division battles on three different days, four of the seven playoff slots in the NFC changed hands. Unfortunately for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, one of those four was actually taken from their hands, as a head-to-head battle with the Panthers propelled Carolina into first place in the NFC South.
The Panthers have a one-game lead in the division with two weeks left, but they don't actually have complete "control of their own destiny," as the popular phrase goes. Despite the loss, the Buccaneers can still win the division by winning their last two games, the second of which is a rematch with the Panthers at Raymond James Stadium.
Meanwhile, Seattle took over the top spot in the conference standings after its stunning and in some ways unprecedented win over the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night. With San Francisco also winning on Monday night to improve to 11-4, the Rams actually dropped all the way from first into the sixth spot in the conference standings. Chicago and Philadelphia held serve and remained in the second and third seeds while Green Bay lost but came close to locking up a Wild Card spot.
Five of the seven spots in the NFC playoff field have been locked up, as the Seahawks, Bears, Eagles, 49ers and Rams have all clinched spots. Here's how the conference playoff hunt stands heading into Week 17:
- Seattle (12-3), NFC West Leader
Seattle rallied to force overtime against the Rams in part due to the flukiest two-point conversion of all time, and then when they got there they went for two again and got the win, 39-38, to completely shake up the NFC West. Now Seattle is in pole position for the first-round bye, but the race is far from over. ESPN's playoff calculator actually only gives the Seahawks a 41.1% chance of hanging on to the number one seed (which is the best odds of any team, of course), with the Rams and 49ers combining for a 46.8% chance. The key here is Seattle's final regular season game, which is at San Francisco against a surging 49ers team. The Seahawks can clinch their division this weekend with a win at Carolina and losses by both the Rams and 49ers, but the only scenario in which they clinch the top seed involves a tie between the 49ers and the Bears.
- Chicago (11-4), NFC North Leader
After the Rams and Seahawks had the first battle for division supremacy of the week on Thursday night, the Bears and Packers laid the NFC North on the line on Saturday. Like Seattle, Chicago rallied late to force overtime, scoring 10 points in the game's final two minutes – a rare successful onside kick was crucial to the sequence – then won it on Caleb Williams' beautiful 46-yard touchdown pass to D.J. Moore. That increased Chicago's lead in the division to a game and a half and they can clinch the North this weekend with a win or a Packers loss to Baltimore. Chicago also still has a nearly 12% chance of earning the number-one seed, so even if the Lions are eliminated this weekend and the Bears clinch the division, their Week 18 meeting could still be meaningful.
- Philadelphia (10-5), NFC East Leader
Philadelphia didn't have too much trouble dispatching of the Commanders on Saturday, and in the process they clinched the NFC East, becoming the first team to repeat as that division's champs since the Eagles last did it in 2004. They are only team that has actually clinched its division already, and they have almost no chance to take the top seed so there's not much left for them to accomplish besides moving up to the second seed. Philly gets the Commanders again in Week 18 but first has a tough assignment in Buffalo in Week 17.
- Carolina (8-7), NFC South Leader
As noted above, the Panthers took over first in the NFC South with their win over the Bucs and will win their first division title since 2015 if they can complete the sweep in Tampa in Week 18. Carolina actually has a chance to wrap up the division in Week 16 if they can win at home against Seattle coupled with a Buccaneers loss in Miami.
- San Francisco (11-4), Wild Card #1
The 49ers have won five in a row and have averaged 34.4 points per game in that run, and they are very much alive in the NFC West race. They actually moved ahead of L.A. after the Rams' loss in Seattle based on a superior record against conference opponents (8-2 to 6-4) since the 49ers and Rams split their two head-to-head games. The 49ers' last two games are against fellow playoff teams, as they will take on the Bears this weekend and Seattle in Week 18, but both are at home. If San Francisco beats Chicago and the Seahawks lose in Carolina, San Francisco would take over first in the West based on either their head-to-head win in Seattle in Week One (if the Rams lose this weekend) or the best head-to-head record among the three teams (if the Rams win this weekend).
- L.A. Rams (11-4), Wild Card #2
The Rams certainly didn't look like any less of a contender after that wild one-point loss in Seattle, but they now have the third-worst odds to win the NFC West and they don't have any games remaining against the Seahawks or 49ers to take care of business on their own. They hit the road this week to play the Atlanta Falcons and finish up at home against Arizona, two teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention and are without their Week One starting quarterbacks.
- Green Bay (9-5-1), Wild Card #3
The Packers aren't completely out of the NFC North race and they haven't officially clinched a playoff spot yet, but it is very likely that they are going to finish the season right here in the seventh spot. To win the NFC North they would need to win their last two games against Baltimore and Minnesota and have the Bears lose their last two to San Francisco and Detroit. For the Lions to catch the Packers for the last Wild Card spot, they would have to beat Minnesota and Chicago and have the Packers lose their last two. Green Bay will clinch a playoff spot with either a win or a Detroit loss this weekend, and they will be eliminated from the division title race with either a loss or a Bears win.
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On the outside…
- Detroit (8-7)
The Lions' situation after a down-to-the-wire loss at home to the Steelers on Sunday is spelled out above in Green Bay's section. Detroit has to win a pair of division road games at Minnesota and Chicago to have a chance, and they will need the Packers to lose at home against the Ravens and at Minnesota as well.
- Tampa Bay (7-8)
The Buccaneers are actually 10th in the overall NFC standings, behind the 7-8 Minnesota Vikings due to a slightly worse record in conference games, but they are still alive in the postseason hunt because they can win the NFC South. The Vikings have been eliminated. What the Buccaneers need to happen has already been spelled out a couple times above, but there is actually one more scenario that could come into play if Tampa Bay and Carolina both lose this week and Atlanta wins. The possibility still remains of a three-way tie in the NFC South, with all three teams at 8-9. The Falcons can't win the division but they can change the applicable tiebreaker away from the common opponents one that currently favors the Buccaneers. That's complicated, but the Buccaneers' basic playoff math is simple: Win twice and they are in.
What Lies Ahead for Tampa Bay:
The Bucs play their final road game and final AFC opponent of the season on Sunday in Miami. A win over the Dolphins would ensure that the Bucs have a shot at playing for the NFC South title in Week 18. Miami comes into the game with a 6-9 record after losing its last two to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and in the latter of those contests rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers made his first start. He will get his second start this weekend against the Buccaneers. Miami has already lost to Carolina but has beaten Atlanta and New Orleans in their run through the NFC South.
