The NFC playoff field didn't gain much clarity in Week 11, as was evident on Monday night when the conference's number-one seed struggled to score 10 points in a victory over what had been the number-one seed just two weeks ago. Philadelphia held on to that top spot with its 10-7 slog of a win against Green Bay, but two NFC West teams – the Seahawks and Rams – made stronger statements over the weekend and are tied with Philadelphia for the conference's best record.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, meanwhile, slid down two spots in the NFC hierarchy, dropping from the number-two overall seed to fourth after a 28-23 loss to the red-hot New England Patriots. The Buccaneer didn't lose any of their cushion in the NFC South and are still just one game behind the conference leaders, but wins by Seattle and Detroit plus Green Bay's loss shook up the top four. The other major change in the current playoff field was the arrival of the Chicago Bears, who displaced San Francisco in the top seven.
The Week 11 slate is guaranteed to have a significant effect on the NFC standings thanks primarily to two heavyweight matchups: The Seahawks at the Rams on Sunday afternoon and the Lions at the Eagles later that evening. The Buccaneers will be playing another interconference game at Buffalo but could make up some ground in the NFC standings depending on those outcomes.
Here's how the NFC playoff race stands heading into Week 10:
1. Philadelphia (7-2), NFC East Leader
It wasn't pretty, but the Eagles won their third game in a row and remain on track to get the conference's first-round bye in their Super Bowl title defense season. The win over Green Bay padded their stellar record in conference play, as they are now 6-1 against NFC teams. That is the tiebreaker that has them ahead of Seattle, which is 4-2 in conference play. The Eagles will be at home for the aforementioned showdown with the Lions, but then will play at Dallas in Week 12 before drawing a surging Bears team in Week 13.
2. Seattle (7-2), NFC West Leader
Seattle executed a second straight blowout win, thrashing the Cardinals 44-22, and are emerging as strong Super Bowl contenders behind an offense that now ranks third in the league in scoring with 30.6 points per game. Their trip to SoFi Stadium to take on an equally hot Rams team on Sunday is the game of the week and could catapult one of those two teams into the top spot in the conference if Philly falters. After that contest, the Seahawks' next three games are all against teams that currently have losing records, so they could get on a roll if they can get past the Rams.
3. Detroit (6-3), NFC North Leader
After a loss at home to Minnesota in Week Nine, the Lions got back on track with an easy 44-22 win at Washington last Sunday. Detroit gets the third spot over Tampa Bay due to its head-to-head win over the Bucs in Week Seven, and it is back in first place in the NFC North after Green Bay's Monday night loss. The Bears are also 6-3 but the Lions get the division lead thanks to their win against Chicago in Week Two; those two teams won't meet again until the season finale. Detroit is only 3-2 in games against NFC opponents, so their upcoming battle with Philadelphia will be very important in terms of both the NFC North race and end-of-season tiebreakers.
4. Tampa Bay (6-3), NFC South Leader
The Bucs are no longer tied for the best record in the conference after their loss to New England, and the crowded nature of the conference playoff hunt means one defeat can knock a team down several spots in the rankings. Tampa Bay has already played all three of the teams ahead of it in the standings, beating the Seahawks and losing to the Lions and the Eagles. Given those two huge NFC showdown games mentioned above, there are endless permutations of how the standings could shake out after Week 11, but the Bucs are in position to potentially rise back to the number two seed. Their lead in the NFC South is still 1.5 games after Carolina's surprising home loss to the Saints.
5. L.A. Rams (7-2), Wild Card #1
The Rams won their fourth game in a row in Week 10 and did it in convincing fashion against the arch-rival 49ers in San Francisco. Matthew Stafford is possibly the hottest quarterback in the league over the last month and the Rams have scored 34 or more points in each of their last three victories. As was noted last week, the Rams lose out on the NFC West tiebreaker essentially because they still have most of their division games to go; their 1-1 record against division opponents is just behind Seattle's 2-1 mark. Obviously, that is going to change in the season's second half, beginning with this week's home game against the Seahawks. After that, the Rams will welcome the Buccaneers to SoFi Stadium in Week 12.
6. Chicago (6-3), Wild Card #2
Chicago has won six of its last seven and is suddenly tied with Detroit for the best record in the hotly-contested NFC North. It's worth noting, however, that two of its three losses are to division foes and they still have to play (get to play?) Green Bay twice. The Bears have won all of their other games against conference opponents, though none of those victories are against teams with winning records. In addition to their remaining division games, the Bears also will travel to Philadelphia in Week 13 and San Francisco in Week 17, so there will be opportunities to prove they belong among the top NFC contenders.
7. Green Bay (5-3-1), Wild Card #3
The Packers occupied the top spot in the NFC standings just two weeks ago when they stood at 5-1-1, but losses to the Panthers and Eagles have followed and their offense has produced just 20points in the last two weeks. Green Bay has already lost three games this season in which they held opponents to 16 or fewer points; all the other teams in the NFL have combined to do that five times. After a trip to the Meadowlands to play the Giants this weekend, the Packers will head into a season-defining three-week run against division foes Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago.
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On the outside…
8. San Francisco (6-4)
After a 3-0 start, the injury-depleted 49ers have alternated losses and wins for the last seven weeks, culminating in last Sunday's 42-26 defeat at the hands of the Rams. The upcoming schedule might provide the 49ers with some relief and a chance to get back into the NFC playoff field, as their next four gams are against the Cardinals, Panthers, Browns and Titans.
9. Carolina (5-5)
The Panthers won four of five games from Weeks 5-9 but saw their momentum slowed in Week 10 with an unexpected 17-7 home loss to the scuffling Saints, when a win would have pulled them within a half-game of the Bucs in the NFC South standings. Carolina is still well within striking distance of the playoff field, though, and their next game is against the 3-6 Falcons in Atlanta. After that, a pair of games against NFC West contenders San Francisco and Los Angeles could determine whether or not they are legitimate contenders themselves.
10. Minnesota (4-5)
Minnesota is under .500 after a Week 10 loss to the surging Baltimore Ravens, but they still have ample opportunity to battle for the NFC North crown. The Vikings are actually 2-0 in divisional play, having already banked wins over Chicago and Detroit, and their next two games are at home against the Bears and at Lambeau Field against the Packers. After that, it's a trip to Seattle, so the Vikings are likely to establish themselves as contenders or pretenders over the next three weeks.
What Lies Ahead for Tampa Bay:
The Buccaneers play a second straight AFC East opponent as they head to Buffalo for just the fourth time in franchise history. While that game is technically less important than a Week 12 trip to Los Angeles since it's against an AFC opponent, the Buccaneers need to stack wins to stay in the hunt for the conference's top seed and to keep the Panthers at bay in the division race. The Buccaneers also want to avoid the midseason lull that plagued them each of the last two seasons and led to a stressful stretch run to defend their division titles.
