In the first week of the 2025 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers secured a rousing 23-20 win over the Falcons in Atlanta, while Carolina lost in Jacksonville and New Orleans dropped a home game against Arizona. Thus, by the end of the afternoon on Sunday, September 7, the Buccaneers were all alone in first place in the NFC South.
In Week 14, Tampa Bay lost to the Saints under a relentless rainstorm to fall to 7-6 on the season, which dropped the team back into a first-place tie with the idle Panthers, who were also 7-6 while enjoying a bye week. Still, due to a third-level tiebreaker, the Buccaneers were still technically in first place in the division.
Then it happened. The Bucs opened the Week 15 slate with a Thursday night game rematch with the Falcons at Raymond James Stadium. The home team took a two-touchdown lead early in the fourth quarter but Atlanta stormed back for a 29-28 walk-off win. With 25 minutes left before midnight on December 11, the Buccaneers were in second place in the NFC South for the first time in 376 days.
It didn't last long. Thanks to the Saints' walk-off win over Carolina this past Sunday, the Bucs' stay in second place was only three days long; with the Bucs and Panthers now both 7-7, Tampa Bay is again technically in first thanks to that same tiebreaker as a week ago. Of course, tiebreakers may end up being moot with the Bucs and Panthers set to play each other twice in the next three weeks.
There was only one change of any significance in the overall NFC standings after the 15 games played between Thursday and Sunday, as the Chicago Bears continued to yo-yo up and down the list. The Bears had moved into the number-one slot after a Week 13 win over Eagles, but one loss to Green Bay in Week 14 sent them all the way back down to number seven. The situation reversed again this past weekend with Chicago's dominant win over Cleveland and Green Bay's costly loss in Denver. Now the Bears are back up to the second spot and the Packers are now down at number seven. Don't blink…the Bears and Packers play again in Chicago on Saturday.
One more NFC team was eliminated from playoff contention in Week 15, as the Vikings dropped out of the race despite a win in Dallas. That game did not also eliminate the Cowboys, though they are hanging on by the thinnest of threads. Atlanta, Washington, New Orleans, Arizona and the New York Giants had been eliminated in previous weeks.
In Week 16, that home-and-home doubleheader between the Bucs and Panthers begins in Charlotte. That's one of three games on the NFL's weekend slate in which two division foes will battle each other with first place at stake. Here's how the conference playoff hunt stands heading into Week 15:
- L.A. Rams (11-3), NFC West Leader
The Rams notched an impressive 41-34 win over a very game Lions team in Los Angeles on Sunday to remain in first in both the NFC West and the conference overall. They have won eight of their last nine and have topped 34 points scored in five of their last seven games. A hamstring injury to wide receiver Davante Adams a concern, particularly since the Rams' most important game left is the one coming up on Thursday night in Seattle. The winner of that game will be in good shape to take home the number-one overall seed and the coveted first-round bye.
- Chicago (10-4), NFC North Leader
If the Bears can get a split with the Packers on Saturday night, they would have a 1.5-game lead in the NFC North with two to play, though their last two matchups won't be easy at San Francisco and at home against the Lions. The Bears still have a shot at the top-overall seed but would need the winner of this weekend's Rams-Seahawks game to then lose at least once in the final two weeks. Chicago's 6-3 record against NFC opponents is exactly the same as that of the Rams and Seahawks right now, so if those latter two teams each take one more in-conference loss the Bears would move to the top of the list with a three-game sweep to end their regular season.
- Philadelphia (9-5), NFC East Leader
The Eagles pulled out of a three-game skid with a 31-0 thumping of the collapsing Raiders on Sunday, which may not have been its most impressive win of the season but all but wrapped up the NFC East and with it, in the most likely scenarios, the number-three overall seed. Two of Philadelphia's last three games are against Washington, which did get a win over the Giants in Week Two but will surely be heavy underdogs in both of those games. In between is a daunting trip to Buffalo in late December. The Eagles have been essentially eliminated from the race for the number-one NFC seed. They could catch Chicago for the second spot but their home loss to the Bears in Week 13 complicates that matter.
- Tampa Bay (7-7), NFC South Leader
The Buccaneers will win the NFC South if they win any two of their next three games. Obviously, a sweep of the Panthers in Weeks 16 and 18 would do the trick. However, even with a split of those two contests, the Bucs would still win the division with a victory in Miami in Week 17, even if the Panthers defeat the Seahawks at home on that same day. In such a scenario, both teams would finish 9-8 and would have a head-to-head split and identical 3-3 records within division play. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents, of which there are 12 games for each team. The Bucs would be 7-5 in those contests of they beat Miami, while the Panthers would be 6-6 with a win over the Seahawks. The main difference is the Bucs' Week 13 win over Arizona, a team that beat the Panthers in Week Two.
- Seattle (11-3), Wild Card #1
The Seahawks remained in a tie with the Rams atop the West with their stunning last-minute win over the Colts. Jason Myers' 56-yard field goal with 18 seconds left trumped a 60-yard shot by Colts kicker Blake Grupe just 29 game seconds earlier and gave Seattle a surprisingly difficult 18-16 decision. That sets up a must-watch Thursday night showdown between the Rams and Seahawks at Lumen Field that isn't exactly winner-take-all since there are two more weeks to play afterward, but is close.
- San Francisco (10-4), Wild Card #2
The 49ers have won four in a row but are having a hard time gaining any ground in the NFC West because the Rams and Seahawks keep winning as well. Still, things could very juicy if Seattle wins on Thursday night. San Francisco is one game back of those two teams and has already beaten the Seahawks once while splitting with the Rams. San Francisco would then have a chance at a sweep of Seattle with a home game in Week 18. All of that is why ESPN Analytics still gives the 49ers a 12% shot of taking over the top NFC seed by the end of the season. It will all play out before a national audience, as San Francisco is scheduled to play the Colts on Monday night this week and the Bears on Sunday night in Week 17.
- Green Bay (9-4-1), Wild Card #3
The Packers would move right back up to the two-seed if they win in Chicago on Saturday night and complete the two-games-in-three-weeks sweep of the Bears. The season-ending knee injury suffered by Micah Parsons in Denver is devastating, however, and top wideout Christian Watson could miss time, too, with a chest injury. The injuries don't stop there for Green Bay, which will be banged up heading into Soldier Field. A Week 17 Saturday night game against Baltimore at home is a tough one to call, and then the Packers finish up in Minnesota. Even with their new injury concerns, the Packers still have a 90% chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics.
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On the outside…
- Detroit (8-6)
The Lions fought hard in Los Angeles but the shootout loss to the Rams dealt them a significant blow. Their chances of winning the NFC North dimmed to just 7%, though they are pegged as having a 37% chance at a Wild Card spot. Getting there probably entails rooting for the Packers this weekend. If Green Bay beats Chicago and the Lions win at home against Pittsburgh, the Bears would be just one game up on the Lions in the race for the third Wild Card spot, 10-5 to 9-6. Detroit has already beaten the Bears once and will head to Chicago in Week 18 to try to get the sweep. That could be what they need to make it into the NFC dance, particularly if they take care of the Steelers and Vikings the next two weeks.
- Carolina (7-7)
The Panthers, like the Bucs, "control their own destiny" in terms of making the playoffs because a sweep of Tampa Bay in the next three weeks makes them the NFC South champs, no matter what happens in Week 17. However, they don't have the same control if those two head-to-head matchups end up in a split, as explained above. Still, they have managed to put themselves in position to end the Bucs' four-year stranglehold on the division title on their own terms.
- Dallas (6-7-1)
The Cowboys are still on this page because they are not yet eliminated from the NFC East title hunt. If the Cowboys win out against the Chargers at home and the Commanders and Giants on the round, and the Eagles lose their last three against the Commanders, Bills and Commanders, Dallas would be the division champs. That's obviously the longest of long shots, but it is technically possible.
What Lies Ahead for Tampa Bay:
The Bucs will try to put themselves in the driver's seat for a fifth straight NFC South crown when they head to Bank of America Field on Sunday, December 21 for a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff with the Panthers. Home losses to their other two division foes, New Orleans and Atlanta, kept the Bucs from building up any sort of cushion in the division for this final three-week gauntlet. Still, if Tampa Bay can get the win in Week 16 they will then be able to clinch with one more victory in either of the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Panthers.
