In Week 14, the NFC continued its recent trend of rearranging its playoff seeding with each new set of games, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers remained the one constant in the fourth seed, albeit by a more tenuous margin than ever.
With the Carolina Panthers finally enjoying their bye in Week 14 and the Buccaneers absorbing an upset home loss to the two-win New Orleans Saints, both teams now head into Week 15 with 7-6 records. Tampa Bay does still technically hold the top spot in the division on a third-level tiebreaker (more on that below), but it is becoming increasingly obvious that the 2025 NFC South title is going to be decided in head-to-head fashion. The Buccaneers play at Carolina in Week 16 and then host the Panthers for the follow-up in the final weekend of the regular season.
Meanwhile, the previously-streaking Chicago Bears dropped all the way from the top seed in the conference to the seventh spot with just one narrow loss to the Packers in Green Bay. That put the Packers ahead in the NFC North and restored the Rams to the top seed, a position they had occupied but recently relinquished with a Week 13 loss at Carolina. The NFC West also currently owns two of the three available Wild Card spots.
In Week 15, the Buccaneers will try to stay in control of its own playoff destiny in a nationally-televised Thursday Night Football showdown against the 4-9 Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium. Atlanta has been officially eliminated from the playoff race after a 37-9 home loss to Seattle in Week 14 that marked the team's seventh defeat in the last eight weeks. However, the Buccaneers were reminded rather starkly in Week 14 that win-loss records don't tend to matter when two NFC South teams do battle. Here's how the conference playoff hunt stands heading into Week 15:
1. L.A. Rams (10-3), NFC West Leader
The Rams had little trouble dispatching of the spiraling Arizona Cardinals, 45-17, on Sunday and the Bears loss paved the way for their move back into the conference's top seed. That said, they are still actually in a tie for first place in their own division, holding a head-to-head edge over the Seahawks that will be tested with a rematch in Seattle in Week 16. First though, the Rams will get a tougher test this coming weekend with a visit from the Detroit Lions, who are coming off a big win over Dallas but have little margin for error in both the NFC North and Wild Card races. Green Bay and San Francisco, in particular, are dangerous with their superior records in conference play of 7-2-1 and 8-2, respectively.
2. Green Bay (9-3-1), NFC North Leader
The Packers made the biggest move in the NFC in Week 14, jumping from the sixth seed to the second with their hard-fought 28-21 home win over the Bears. Green Bay has won four and a row and continues to remain immune from any tiebreaker scenarios thanks to the one tie they have on their record. The Packers are in the unusual spot of rooting for the rival Lions this weekend because a win by Detroit in Los Angeles plus a Packers victory in Denver would move them into the NFC's top spot with just three games to go. Of course, the Bears get another shot at the Packers in Week 16, this time at home, and the Lions are still lurking so the NFC North race is far from over.
3. Philadelphia (8-5), NFC East Leader
Philadelphia dropped a third straight game on Monday night against the Los Angeles Chargers but are still in possession of the NFC East lead and the third seed in the conference. The Eagles still have a healthy lead over the 6-6-1 Cowboys but their recent swoon is keeping the door open in the division race. Those two teams have already split their season series, so the Cowboys are reduced to rooting for their long-time arch-enemies in Washington, since the Eagles and Commanders will play twice in Weeks 16 and 18. The Eagles also have a trip to Buffalo in Week 17 that could prove daunting but their next game is against the 2-11 Las Vegas Raiders.
4. Tampa Bay (7-6), NFC South Leader
After a 6-2 start, the Buccaneers have dropped four of their last five, in the process losing all of their cushion in the NFC South as they strive for a fifth straight division title. The Panthers sat at home in Week 14 and watched the Bucs fall back to them in the division standings, but the Buccaneers still currently own first place on a tiebreaker. With no head-to-head results yet, the first tiebreaker is off the table, and the second is record against division, where both the Bucs and Panthers hold 2-1 marks. The third tiebreaker, which is record against common opponents, tilts slightly in the Bucs' direction. Through Week 14, the Buccaneers and Panthers have played nine games against common opponents: the Cardinals, Falcons, Patriots, Jets, Bills, Saints, 49ers and Rams. The Panthers have played Atlanta twice and the Bucs have played New Orleans twice. Tampa Bay's record in those nine games is 5-4 after their loss on Sunday, while the Panthers are 4-5. The edge essentially comes from playing the Cardinals, who the Panthers lost to in Week Two and the Bucs beat in Week 13.
5. Seattle (10-3), Wild Card #1
The Seahawks are perhaps the hottest team in the NFL heading into the final four weeks of the regular season, having won their last three games by a combined score of 93-33. Their remaining schedule isn't easy, however, though their home game against the Colts this coming weekend looks less concerning after the unfortunate Achilles tendon injury suffered by Daniel Jones on Sunday. After that, it's a critical home date against the Rams that could potentially catapult them into the conference's top seed followed by potentially tricky road trips to Carolina and San Francisco.
6. San Francisco (9-4), Wild Card #2
The 49ers took the week off but didn't gain any ground in the NFC West with the easy wins by the Rams and Seahawks. However, they did move up one spot in the overall conference standings due to the Bears loss to Green Bay and subsequent fall to the bottom of the list of teams currently in the postseason picture. The 49ers and Bears now have the same record but San Francisco earns the higher seed thanks to a superior record against NFC teams, 8-2 to 6-3. However, that likely won't matter in the end if these two teams are in a tiebreaker after Week 18, because they have a head-to-head matchup on tap in Week 17 in San Francisco. The 49ers first two opponents coming out of the bye are the 2-11 Tennessee Titans at home and the Jones-less Colts in Indy.
7. Chicago (9-4), Wild Card #3
The Bears didn't go down without a fight at Lambeau Field, rallying from a 14-3 halftime deficit to tie the game at 21-21 in the fourth quarter, but Josh Jacobs' two-yard touchdown run with 3:32 left carried the day for the Packers and snapped Chicago's five-game winning streak. The Bears had gone all the way from a game out of the playoff picture to the conference's top seed with that winning streak, but have now yo-yoed back to the seventh seed. They could spring right back, however, with a rematch against the Packers in Chicago in Week 16. The Bears will need to hold serve this coming weekend against a three-win Cleveland team because their two games after the Green Bay rematch are at San Francisco and versus Detroit.
**
On the outside…
8. Detroit (8-5)
The Lions kept their playoff hopes from going on life support last Thursday night with an impressive 44-30 home win over the Cowboys and their own high-powered offense. Now they will try to prove they are as serious a Super Bowl contender as they were considered before the season when they head to Los Angeles to take on the Rams. Detroit's chances of winning the NFC North are significantly hampered by its two losses to Green Bay, though it could also get its own sweep of the Bears in Week 18. The Lions' 5-4 record against NFC opponents also trails all three teams currently holding Wild Card spots.
9. Carolina (7-6)
Like the Buccaneers, the Panthers will be hard-pressed to overtake the teams ahead of them in the Wild Card race, so their playoff fate is likely to come down to those two games against Tampa Bay. Carolina's other two games are a trip to New Orleans this coming weekend and a home game against Seattle that is sandwiched between the two tilts with Tampa Bay. It's possible that tiebreakers could come into play if the Bucs and Panthers split those two games, in which that upcoming game against the Seahawks could prove pivotal if the tiebreaker still comes down to common opponents. The Buccaneers beat Seattle in Week Five.
10. Dallas (6-6-1)
The Cowboys' playoff hopes are still pretty slim after their loss to Detroit, but they have not yet been eliminated and their chances improved a bit on Monday night. NFL.com had their chances of making it into the postseason pegged at 6% before the Eagles game but now have them at 10%. At least the remaining schedule is somewhat favorable for the Cowboys. Three of their final four opponents have losing records (Vikings, Commanders, Giants) and the fourth is a Chargers team dealing with significant injury concerns.
What Lies Ahead for Tampa Bay:
The Buccaneers don't have to wait long for a chance to get the bad taste from Week 14 out of their mouths, as the Falcons will come to town for a prime-time game on Thursday. With the Panthers likely to be favored in New Orleans on Sunday, the Bucs can ill afford another loss, particularly to a conference opponent. Between that aforementioned home-and-away doubleheader against Carolina, the Bucs will also travel to Miami to face a Dolphins team that has won four in a row and five of its last six.
