The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are returning to action in Week 10 after a much-needed bye, are like a straight-A student who was out sick for a week and missed a midterm exam. In this particular NFC classroom, there appear to be a lot more honors students than usual but the exam produced some surprising results that didn't do much to clarify the class hierarchy.
Green Bay lost the top spot in the NFC standings due to an upset pulled off by the Carolina Panthers at Lambeau Field, which also served to tighten up the NFC South standings a bit. The Atlanta Falcons flubbed the last question on the test and missed a chance to make up ground on the Buccaneers. Minnesota shook up the NFC North with a rousing win in Detroit. Seattle got the best grade in the class and San Francisco seemed to get back on track, as well.
It all makes for a very top-heavy and confusing NFC standings. There are four teams tied for the best record in the conference, and one of them isn't even a division leader. The Buccaneers, who are near the top of the list and among that foursome of 6-2 teams, have beaten the current #3 and #6 seeds, have lost to #1 and #7 and will be playing #5 in just a few weeks.
There is a long way to go in the NFC playoff hunt, but with so many contenders there is no time to rest, especially now that the Bucs' bye week is in the rear view mirror. The Bucs' return to action coincides with some heavyweight matchups in the conference on Sunday and Monday, including Rams at 49ers and Eagles at Packers. Looking ahead to that intriguing weekend, here's how the NFC playoff race stands heading into Week 10:
1. Philadelphia (6-2), NFC East Leader
The Eagles currently own the tiebreaker among the three 6-2 division leaders not because of their head-to-head win in Tampa in Week Four but because of their superior record in conference play. When breaking a tie between three or more teams, the head-to-head tiebreaker only applies if all the teams have played each other, and the Eagles have not faced the Seahawks. The next tiebreaker is record against conference opponents, where the Eagles stand 5-1, ahead of the Bucs at 4-2 and the Seahawks at 3-2. The Eagles do also have wins already against the Rams and Vikings, which may prove to be very important, and to a lesser extent over Dallas, though those two will meet again in Dallas in Week 12. Like the Bucs, the Eagles were on a bye in Week Nine and now return for that aforementioned showdown with the Packers, which will be at Lambeau Field on Sunday night.
2. Tampa Bay (6-2), NFC South Leader
After the Eagles win the first tiebreaker, that leaves the Bucs and Seahawks still tied for the next spot. The process starts over, and now head-to-head does come into play, with Tampa Bay's Week Five win at Seattle giving it the nod for the second seed. Among the seven teams currently in the playoff picture in the NFC, the Bucs have wins against Seattle and San Francisco and losses to Philadelphia and Detroit. Their conference mark of 4-2 is third among the top seven teams to the 6-1 49ers and the 5-1 Eagles. The Bucs' strength of victory and strength of schedule numbers aren't great but there are a huge amount of games still to be played that will factor into those figures, and the tiebreakers rarely get down that far anyway. Just like the Eagles, the Buccaneers have five games remaining against teams that currently have a .500 or better record, including the upcoming three-week gauntlet against the 7-2 Patriots, 6-2 Bills and 6-2 Rams.
3. Seattle (6-2), NFC West Leader
Seattle is next among the division winners as it is a half-game ahead of the Packers after Green Bay's loss to Carolina on Sunday. The Seahawks handled their own business in Week Nine with a 38-14 beatdown of Washington, the team's third win a row since a wild shootout loss to the Buccaneers. Seattle's two losses are by a combined seven points. At the moment, the Seahawks get the top spot in the NFC West over the 6-2 Rams, but that's mainly because most of the intra-division matchups are still to come. The Seahawks win a tiebreaker based on a 1-1 record against division opponents, compared to 0-1 for the Rams, but that won't stand for long. The Seahawks and Rams still have both of their head-to-head games to come, in Weeks 11 and 16, and that will obviously have a lot to do with how the division is decided.
4. Green Bay (5-2-1), NFC North Leader
The Packers came into the weekend with the top spot in the NFC standings but now slip to fourth, though they were saved from a bigger fall by the Vikings upset of the Lions in Detroit. Had Detroit won to go to 6-2, it would have moved to the top of the NFC North list and the Packers would now be in the sixth spot. Green Bay does have a Week One win over the Lions in its back pocket and will have a shot at completing the season sweep in Week 13. The Packers' ridiculous 40-40 tie in Dallas in Week Four is likely going to keep it out of a lot of tiebreaker scenarios down the road. They still have five of their six games against NFC North foes left, and all three of those opponents are at .500 or better. Green Bay also still has to play Philadelphia, Denver and Baltimore.
5. L.A. Rams (6-2), Wild Card #1
The Rams are essentially tied for first in the NFC West but for a relatively meaningless tiebreaker, but here they take the top Wild Card opening. Los Angeles is on a three-game winning streak and just came out of its bye hot with an easy 34-10 win over the Saints in Week Nine. The Rams also hammered the Jaguars, 35-7, right before their bye. Six of their nine remaining games are against teams that are currently .500 or better, though that's a little less surprising given how many NFC teams are within contention this season. The Rams' next three contests will be telling: at San Francisco followed by home games against Seattle and Tampa Bay. A Week Five home loss to the 49ers could put them in a tough spot if they don't even up the series this coming Sunday.
6. San Francisco (6-3), Wild Card #2
San Francisco is among the Wild Card ranks because it has played, and lost, one more game than the Seahawks and Rams. However, it has several things going for it. First, the 49ers have already beaten the other three teams in the NFC West, two of them on the road, and their rematches against Los Angeles (Week 10) and Seattle (Week 18) will be at home. The 49ers have also played more of their intra-conference schedule than any other team in the NFC, and their 6-1 mark in those contests is the best in the conference, with the only loss coming at Tampa in Week Six. The 49ers still get matchups with struggling teams in Arizona and Tennessee, but a Week 16 trip to Indianapolis could be very interesting.
7. Detroit (5-3), Wild Card #3
The Lions' home loss to the Vikings on Sunday made the difference between starting this week as the NFC's #2 seed or slipping down to #7. With a win, the Lions would have been 6-2 and in first place in the NFC North, and would have had a 3-1 record in conference play, which would have put them ahead of the Buccaneers, though that tiebreaker actually wouldn't have come into play. After the Eagles got the top spot based on the same tiebreaker explained above, the Lions would have topped the Buccaneers due to their Week Seven win over the Bucs. The Lions' three losses are nothing to be too worried about, coming against the Packers, Chiefs and Vikings, but a 1-2 record in division play is going to make all of those rematches in the second half of the season very important. Next up, however, is a Washington team that will be without quarterback Jayden Daniels.
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On the outside…
8. Chicago (5-3)
The Bears were one of the biggest winners of Week Nine, with their absolutely bonkers 47-42 win over Cincinnati adding to losses by both Green Bay and Detroit. Chicago has been all over the board in 2025 so far, combining a 52-21 loss at Detroit with a 31-14 win over the Cowboys. The nearly disastrous collapse-turned-stunning comeback against the Bengals came a week after a 14-point loss to a Baltimore team without Lamar Jackson. Their losses to Minnesota and Detroit to start the season won't help their cause in the division race but they are 5-1 against all other opponents and still have games left against the Giants and Browns.
9. Carolina (5-4)
The Panthers have been even more unpredictable than the Bears, with very lopsided losses to Buffalo, New England and Jacksonville in opposition to a 30-0 drubbing of Atlanta and this past week's victory in Green Bay. All of it has kept the Panthers very much in the thick of the NFC South race, just 1.5 back of the Buccaneers with both head-to-head matchups with the division leaders still to come in the last three weeks of the season. Carolina also still has both of its games against the 1-8 Saints left, the first one this coming weekend in Charlotte.
10. Minnesota (4-4)
The Vikings gave second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy the time he needed to fully heal from a Week Two ankle injury before throwing him back into action, and they were rewarded with the young passer's best performance yet in the upset win in Detroit. McCarthy threw two touchdown passes and ran for a third and was intercepted once. He also completed a key third-down pass late in the game that kept the Lions' offense from getting one more crack at a comeback. The Vikings are 1.5 games behind the Packers in the NFC North but are 2-0 in division play with both head-to-head contests against Green Bay still to come.
11-13. Dallas (3-5-1), Arizona (3-5), Atlanta (3-5)
It's too early to write any of these teams off, but they have a lot of work to do to get back into serious Wild Card contention. That said, we had to extend this list far enough to include Atlanta, which still could figure into the NFC South race. The Falcons have lost three in a row but they came within a missed extra point of tying the red hot Patriots in Foxborough on Sunday and have banked wins over the Bills and Vikings.
What Lies Ahead for Tampa Bay:
The Buccaneers got a break in their schedule with the Week Nine bye, but there's no break in the strength of their schedule as they return to action. New England will bring a six-game winning streak and an emerging star in quarterback Drake Maye to Tampa in Week 10, after which the Bucs will take consecutive road trips to Buffalo and Los Angeles.
