The 11th Week of the 2025 season did not go according to plan for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are seeking a record fifth straight NFC South title. The Buccaneers remained in first place in the division after the dust was settled, but their lead over second place had shrunk and their distance from the top overall seed in the conference widened. That said, the Buccaneers started the weekend with a hold on the fourth spot in the NFC postseason field, and ended it in the same place.
Obviously, Tampa Bay's own loss at Buffalo in a wild shootout that included nine different lead changes was the most important outcome, but several other outcomes went against the Bucs' rooting interest, as well. A win by Seattle in the enormous NFC West showdown against the L.A. Rams would have been preferable, but Matthew Stafford and company prevailed. An upset by Jameis Winston and the Giants would have been a nice gift but Green Bay pulled out the win. Atlanta got up big early on Carolina (yay!) but couldn't stop a furious Bryce Young-led comeback (boo). The 49ers and Eagles won, and so on.
In Week 12, the Buccaneers will travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams. The game will get a national audience on Sunday night, and it's fitting because it's probably the most significant game of the weekend in terms of the NFC playoff hunt. Here's how that race stands heading into Week 12:
1. Philadelphia (8-2), NFC East Leader
Here's how this entry began in last week's Playoff Push roundup: "It wasn't pretty, but the Eagles won their third game in a row and remain on track to get the conference's first-round bye in their Super Bowl title defense season. The win over Green Bay padded their stellar record in conference play, as they are now 6-1 against NFC teams." Make that their fourth win in a row, the opponent Detroit and the conference record 7-1 and we've got the exact same situation this time around. The Eagles stymied the Lions on Sunday Night Football and did just enough on offense to win a critical showdown that kept them in the top spot in the conference. The Rams have the same record but the Eagles win the tiebreaker thanks to a head-to-head win in Week Three that was decided by a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. Even without that game, the Eagles would have been slotted first thanks to their nearly unblemished record against NFC opponents. They play Dallas next on Sunday.
2. L.A. Rams (8-2), NFC West Leader
The Rams won their fifth game in a row and jumped over Seattle into the top spot in the hotly-contested NFC West, though that matter is far from settled. The two teams play again in Week 18. Interestingly, the Rams have already finished their five-game slate against AFC opponents (going 5-0), so their 3-2 mark against NFC opponents has a lot of room for development in either direction down the stretch. The NFC South may play a key role in how that turns out, as the Rams still have to play the Bucs, Panthers and Falcons. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford have had the L.A. offense humming, though it was slowed down a bit by the Seahawks defense that held it to 249 yards and two conversions in 11 third-down tries. One other tiebreaker situation to keep an eye on: The Rams are tied with the Bucs for the top strength of schedule figure (.549) among the top 11 teams in the NFC.
3. Chicago (7-3), NFC North Leader
The Bears broke into the NFC playoff field last week as a Wild Card spot holder and now suddenly occupy the third seed in the conference as the NFC North leaders. Chicago, which was in third place in the division just three weeks ago, has turned into one of the more interesting teams of the 2025 season, and they took over first in Week 11 with their win over Minnesota coupled with Detroit's loss in Philadelphia. Their lead over Green Bay is just a half game, and they still have both matchups with the Packers left to be played. The Bears will also get a rematch at home against the Lions, who they lost to in Week Two, in the regular season finale.
4. Tampa Bay (6-4), NFC South Leader
The Bucs' lead in the South shrunk to half a game with the loss in Buffalo and Carolina's comeback overtime win in Atlanta. We still have a ways to go until those two teams fight it out head-to-head for the division lead, as the Bucs go to Charlotte in Week 16 then welcome the Panthers to Raymond James Stadium in Week 18. Tampa Bay is one of six NFC teams that has exactly two losses in conference play, so there is an opportunity to surge ahead in that all-important tiebreaker. If the playoffs were to start this week, the Bucs would be at home against the Seahawks, a team it beat in Seattle in Week Five. If the Buccaneers can upend the Rams on Sunday night, they would have a chance to pull back within a game of the best record in the conference, depending upon the result in the Philly-Dallas battle.
5. Seattle (7-3), Wild Card #1
Seattle saw its four-game winning streak snapped in Los Angeles in Week 11, but it was a hard-fought game that was decided by just two points. The Seahawks are surely eager for the rematch in their home stadium in Week 16. Of course, this isn't just a two-game race, as the 49ers are just a half-game back of the Seahawks and those two teams will also meet in the final week of the season. The 49ers beat the Seahawks in Seattle in Week One. Seattle's next three games are against teams that have losing records but have been scuffling of late: at Tennessee this weekend, then at home against Minnesota and at Atlanta. Seattle is the only team in the current NFC top seven that has already been hit with three losses against other NFC squads.
6. Green Bay (6-3-1), Wild Card #2
It took the Packers a concerningly long time to put down the Giants last Sunday, but a win is a win and one the team really needed after low-wattage losses to Carolina and Philadelphia. The change at the top of the NFC North standings is interesting for the Packers because they still have two cracks against the Bears, at home in Week 14 and in Chicago in Week 16. The Packers' crazy 40-40 tie in Dallas in Week Four means they don't really need to worry about tiebreakers, as they are not likely to finish the season in any sort of tie. Five of Green Bay's remaining seven games are against division opponents, so the NFC North race is in their own hands. Their other two games, however, are against Baltimore and Denver, meaning the schedule ahead is not getting any easier.
7. San Francisco (7-4), Wild Card #3
The 49ers took care of business against Arizona, and Detroit's loss allowed them to jump back into the NFC playoff field. As noted above, they are also far from out of the NFC West race, as they are just 1.5 back of Los Angeles and 0.5 back of Seahawks. San Francisco is also the only team in the top eight in the conference that has yet to enjoy its bye; that's coming up in Week 14. The 49ers have already played nine of their 12 games against NFC opponents and have a 7-2 record, tying the Eagles for the most wins in that category. After a home game against Carolina this weekend, the 49ers have matchups against the two-win Browns and the one-win Titans sandwiched around their bye. They finish the season at Seattle, which could be for all the marbles in the NFC West.
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On the outside…
8. Detroit (6-4)
Constant – and very effective – pressure on Jared Goff plus five failed fourth-down attempts led to a season-low offensive output for the Lions at Philadelphia on Sunday night, as they lost 16-9and Goff only completed 14 of 37 passes. That likely will prove to be an outlier, the product of an Eagles' defense that is currently hitting on all cylinders, as Detroit has surpassed 34 points in five games this season, including a 44-22 win over Washington just the week before. Still, the Lions now have some work to do to get back into the playoff field, and their 3-3 record against NFC opponents is not a good starting point. Detroit does get to start the stretch run with a home game against the two-win Giants, but the remainder of their schedule is tough, starting with home games against the Packers and Cowboys, followed by a trip to L.A. to face the Rams.
9. Carolina (6-5)
Since they are just a half-game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South and have both head-to-head matchups with Tampa Bay still to go, the Panthers do control their own playoff destiny. The schedule ahead, however, is not kind. In addition to those two shots at the Bucs, the Panthers also have to play all three NFC West powerhouses, beginning with a trip to San Francisco this weekend. They do still have their bye week to come, though not until after a home game against the Rams.
10. Dallas (4-5-1)
Before their Week 10 bye, the Cowboys had lost three of four, including a lackluster 27-17 home loss to the Cardinals. However, the offense was back in gear after the break as Dak Prescott, George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb and Javonte Williams put on a Monday night show in a 33-16 beatdown of the Raiders. The Cowboys may still be a playoff longshot, as the NFC East title is almost surely out of reach and they are three wins behind the last Wild Card spot with two other teams between them. The next three weeks should reveal whether or not they are contenders, as they are queued up for home games against the Eagles and Rams followed by a trip to Detroit.
What Lies Ahead for Tampa Bay:
The Buccaneers' three-game post-bye gauntlet against top playoff contenders continues with the Sunday night contest with the Rams at SoFi Stadium. After that, four of the team's last six games will be against division opponents, with three of those coming at home. That's where the NFC South will be won or lost.
