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Performance Preview: Week Three Standout – Baker Mayfield, Tykee Smith or Antoine Winfield Jr.?

As three Buccaneers.com contributors continue their competition to see who can predict each upcoming game's standout Buccaneer, we get our first QB selection this week plus a pair of defenders who play the same position

baker

Here's what I am personally hoping for in Week Three of this season-long Pick to Click-style competition between me, Staff Writer/Reporter Brianna Dix, Buccaneers.com Contributor Gabriel Kahaian: a three-way tie. If Bri, Gabe and I can all correctly predict a player who stands out for the home this week against the Vikings, perhaps that will add up to the Buccaneers' first win of the season. I need that more than I need my first 2026 win the Performance Preview contest.

The rules to this competition are simple: Each week, Bri, Gabe and I pick one Buccaneers player apiece on Friday and explain why we think he is poised for a big game. We can't duplicate picks so order may matter, and that's why we rotate that order each week. Following the game, Team Reporter Casey Phillips serves as our (hopefully) unbiased judge, picking which of the three selected players had the best game, in her opinion. She is also allowed to issue a "push" if there simply isn't a best choice.

Gabe is new to our competition in 2026 so it was good to see him get his first win right away in Week One. Now, however, I'm worried about it going to his head. Bri picked first and went with wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, I followed with the selection of rookie outside linebacker Rueben Bain Jr., so we both just left Bucky Irving sitting there for Gabe to swoop in and nab him. The outcome was predictable, as Judge Casey explains:

"Well, well, well, it looks like the young lad is showing the old dog some new tricks (as his Bucs Insider partner, it has been established that I am allowed to call Scott old). Gabe won Week One a bit by default when none of the three picks really had big games, but I think this time he is the clear winner. While Mek did snag a touchdown, and in impressive fashion, Bucky's numbers overall are more impressive and he's really been the bright spot on offense through the first two weeks. Scott and Bri better step up their games or the newcomer is going to run away with this before they know it."

Well, I suppose I can't argue with either the characterization or the logic here. So that gives us these updated standings, such as they are:

Gabe: 2

Bri: 0

Scott: 0

Push: 0

This week is my first chance to go first and I'm going to start it off with a bang!

View pictures from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers practice during Week 3 of the 2026 NFL Season.

Scott Smith: Baker Mayfield

Going with the quarterback in a Pick to Click-style competition is sometimes considered poor form. You know, it's just too easy and obvious. We know big stats are going to sway the judge, and the quarterback is almost always in the best position to collect notable numbers. That's why you only see us select Baker Mayfield a couple times during the course of the season.

HOWEVER, I would argue that, in this specific situation, picking Mayfield is a suitably bold move. As many times as we've seen him have huge games since he came to Tampa – I mean, he is second in the NFL in touchdown passes and third in passing yards in that span – he is not coming off his best two-game start to a season. Now he's about to be put through the mental and physical ringer that is a Brian Flores blitz-fest with the Vikings coming to town. The same Viking defense that held a Bears team that was coming off a 59-point explosion in Week One to just three points last Sunday. (Yes, I know the weather conditions were bad and Caleb Williams got hurt late in the game, but three points is still three points.) Mayfield was even sick earlier this week!

But here's the thing: As any coach will tell you, facing a blitz on any given snap is both a threat and an opportunity. It's basic math: More defenders attacking the backfield, fewer covering all the grass where your pass-catchers are running. And perhaps you've seen the timely note going around this week regarding facing the blitz. You haven't? Allow me to share it with you then: Since joining the Buccaneers in 2023, Mayfield has compiled a 100.5 passer rating on plays when he faced a blitz, tossing 33 touchdown passes and just six interceptions. That makes him one of only four NFL passers in that span to record a passer rating north of 100, 30-plus touchdown passes and fewer than 10 interceptions; the other three are little-known fellows Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott.

Here's where I'll admit that those versus-blitz notes can be a bit misleading. It sounds like we're saying those quarterbacks have all dominated when under pressure, but that's not necessarily the case. Succeeding against the blitz and succeeding against pressure are two different, if potentially related things. What I'm saying is this falls not just on Baker but the offense as a whole. If that unit can keep too many of those sure-to-come blitzes from creating pressure, that's where the opportunity will arise and that's what could get my first Performance Preview win of the season. And I'll say it again: That's what makes this a suitably bold move, because through the first two games that has not been a strength for the Buccaneers. It changes this week.

Gabriel Kahaian: Tykee Smith

I totally understand Scott's logic and, for all intents and purposes, I hope he wins this week! However, this is a competition and I will still give it my best shot. When you take a look at the Vikings' offense, one thing jumps out on paper; they love to tote the rock. Through the first two weeks of the season, 69% of Minnesota's first-and-10 plays have been handoffs and the Vikings are tied for sixth in the league with 62 rush attempts.

Much of this can be attributed to starting quarterback Kyler Murray going down with an injury in the first quarter of their Week One matchup against the Green Bay Packers. Even with Murray returning against the Bucs this week, I do not foresee their rush attempts decreasing too dramatically due to the quarterback only having 11 snaps of regular season football within Kevin O'Connell's offensive system. It makes sense to take the load off of Murray's shoulders as he eases into the gameplan. With this in mind, I think we could be on the cusp of a Tykee Smith masterclass this Sunday.

Even with the Bucs' slow start, their stout run defense continues to stifle opposing offenses. Currently, Tampa Bay sits as a top-five unit, continuing its dominance where it allowed under 100 rushing yards per game in 2025. Smith was a massive force in helping the Bucs hold the Browns to just 44 yards rushing in Week Two, setting a single-game career high with three tackles for loss. The safety has been a constant terror to tailbacks throughout his three-year career and PFF's 86.6 run-defense grade ranks him as the third-best safety in that category in the league this year. If the Bucs move the Vikings away from the run game and make Minnesota air it out, things could get interesting.

So far, the Vikings' offense is allowing sacks on 13.6% of their passing plays (31st in the league). The Bucs are still searching for a way to produce more pressure against the quarterback and this will be a great opportunity to get back on track. Removing Minnesota's ability to efficiently run the ball will put their signal caller, who is still attempting to execute a new scheme, in a tough spot. In no way am I doubting Murray's ability to throw the football. He is just as lethal with his legs as he is with his arm. Smith presents himself as a triple-threat, able to do whatever is asked of him. Since he entered the league in 2024, he leads Tampa Bay in tackles for loss and passes defensed combined (34). The Vikings better have a plan for Smith or they may be in a long day.

Brianna Dix: Antoine Winfield Jr.

In Week Three, I am predicting Antoine Winfield Jr. to have a vintage performance. Bucs fans can conjure up the visual of Winfield flying across the field to prevent a touchdown at the goal line, which he has done multiple times in his Tampa Bay tenure. In two career appearances against Minnesota since entering the NFL in 2020, the former Golden Gopher has totaled 19 tackles and two forced fumbles. He is one-of-four players with 15-plus tackles and multiple forced fumbles against the Vikings during that span.

With Smith as the strong safety who traditionally plays down in the box closer to the line of scrimmage, Winfield mans the free safety role in the post as the last defender. Winfield will be the centerfielder, reading Kyler Murray and tracking the flow of the ball to prevent large gains downfield. Whether using his range to jump routes, limiting Justin Jefferson's success after the catch or coming downhill in run support if Aaron Jones makes it past the first level of defenders, Winfield will play a pivotal role on Sunday.

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