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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A Tale of Two Downs | Steelers-Bucs Tale of the Tape

When the Bucs and Steelers meet on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium, the visitors may have an advantage on first down based on the results of the first five weeks, but the home team has been stronger on third downs

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are hoping to make it two in a row after a season-altering win at Dallas in Week Five and now turn their attention to the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers. The Buccaneers are 1-4 and the Steelers are 3-2 but both teams are just one win behind their respective division leaders. Tampa Bay is expected to have undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels under center for a third straight game as Baker Mayfield continues his recuperation from a dislocated right thumb. Daniels played efficiently and essentially mistake-free in the win over Dallas, and the Buccaneers turned that and a robust rushing attack (241 yards) plus three takeaways on defense/special teams as a formula for their first victory. The Steelers won their most recent game over the Indianapolis Colts, 34-22, and ageless quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown a trio of touchdown passes in each of Pittsburgh's last three games.

The Steelers' rankings through five weeks are mostly middle of the pack on offense and defense, but they have allowed the 10th-fewest points per game (21.8) in part because they have been very good on third downs (32.8 success rate allowed, 7th) and in the red zone (50.0% touchdown rate allowed, tied for sixth. Pittsburgh's rushing attack is picking up 4.69 yards per carry, ninth best in the NFL, and that's largely the work of running back Jaylen Warren, who is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and is the Steelers' leader in both rushing yards (410) and receiving yards (230). Rodgers has spread the ball around equitably to Warren (19 catches), wide receivers D.K. Metcalf (19), Roman Wilson (14) and Germie Bernard (13), and tight ends Pat Freiermuth (19) and Darnell Washington (11). All six of those players have between 131 and 230 receiving  yards. The Buccaneers' defense ranks second in rushing yards allowed per game (72.8) and cornerbacks Zyon McCollum and Jacob Parrish have emerged as a duo capable of going up against any receiving corps in the league (13 combined passes defensed).

Here's how the Buccaneers and Steelers stack up against each other for Sunday's important clash:

When Tampa Bay Has the Ball:

Buccaneers OffenseCategorySteelers Defense
22nd (306.4)Net Yards Per Game13th (324.3)
21st (5.04)Yards Per Play18th (5.46)
25th (20.0)Points Per Game10th (21.8)
7th (133.0)Rushing Yards Per Game13th (103.4)
27th (173.4)Passing Yards Per Game16th (220.8)
16th (38.3%)Third Down Percentage7th (32.8%)
30th (11.26%)Sacks Per Pass Play14th (6.96%)
28th (3.31%)Interception Percentage11th (2.53%)
27th (47.1%)Red Zone Touchdown Pct.t-6th (50.0%)

View pictures from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers practice during Week 6 of the 2026 NFL Season.

When Pittsburgh Has the Ball:

Steelers OffenseCategoryBuccaneers Defense
19th (324.6)Net Yards Per Game7th (299.4)
17th (5.27)Yards Per Play16th (5.29)
18th (22.2)Points Per Game14th (22.4)
19th (101.2)Rushing Yards Per Game2nd (72.8)
15th (223.4)Passing Yards Per Game20th (226.6)
28th (32.8%)Third Down Percentaget-8th (33.9%)
t-21st (7.53%)Sacks Per Pass Play28th (3.61%)
18th (2.15%)Interception Percentage7th (3.01%)
22nd (54.6%)Red Zone Touchdown Pct.12th (53.9%)

Advantage Buccaneers: Tampa Bay Defense on Third Down

The Buccaneers' defense allowed Cincinnati to convert eight of its 14 third-down attempts in the season opener. In four games since then, the Bucs have allowed only 13 successful conversions in 48 attempts. When opponents have thrown on Tampa Bay on third down, they've had a hard time moving the sticks, converting on just 11 of 47 attempts, or 23.4% overall. The Buccaneers are tied for eighth overall in the NFL's third-down defense rankings, at 33.9%, and the key on Sunday will be whether or not the Steelers can make their third downs manageable. While Tampa Bay opponents have moved the chains on 14 of 19 attempts that needed three or fewer yards, they are only seven of 43, or 16.7%, on anything longer than that. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's offense ranks just 28th in third-down conversion rate, finding success 32.8% of the time.

Advantage Steelers: Pittsburgh Offense on First Down

In a rather counterintuitive leap from the stats above, the Buccaneers' defense has not been particularly stingy on first downs. Tampa Bay has allowed 6.38 yards per play on first down attempts, which would seem to make it likely that their opponents would be facing a significant amount of short third downs. Somehow, the Bucs have consistently been able to bear down after first-down struggles. That might not be a sustainable way to gain success, and Pittsburgh's offense will put that notion to the test on Sunday. The Steelers are averaging 6.31 yards per play on first downs, which is fifth-best in the NFL. That's notable that given, overall, Pittsburgh is only 17th in yards per play, at 5.27.

X-Factor: Bucs' First-Down Rushing Success

Statistically, a successful run on first down is considered any one that gains four or more yards (or a touchdown if it's first-and-goal from the three or closer). By that measure, the Bucs have been among the best in the league, succeeding on first-down runs 50.7% of the time, the seventh highest average among all teams. Bucky Irving's 72-yard run in Dallas, for example, came on first down. The Buccaneers have done a good job of making the necessary yards for quarterback Jalon Daniels on later downs a little shorter (when not committing false start or holding penalties), and that would be a good formula on Sunday against the Steelers. The problem? Pittsburgh's defense has given up first-down rushing yards only grudgingly this season. Pittsburgh opponents have had a successful run on first down only 35.9% of the times they've tried, the third best defensive mark in the NFL. Whichever unit wins this strength-on-strength battle could swing the tide.

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