Skip to main content
Advertising

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Takeaway Points and Mid-Range Third Downs | Falcons-Bucs Tale of the Tape

Both the Buccaneers and Falcons are top five in the NFL this season in points scored off takeaways, and both team's defenses have an apparent advantage in two very specific situations

them

For the second time in three weeks, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers put together a dominant road performance, this time against division-rival Carolina in a 43-13 decision. It was a complete-game victory for Tampa Bay, which combined 258 rushing yards with five sacks and four takeaways on defense and even a score on special teams. The Buccaneers are working towards making the ground game the center of their offensive identity and have risen all the way to third in the NFL rankings in that category. Quarterback Baker Mayfield made his return after a three-game absence due to a dislocated thumb but was only required to throw nine passes in the lopsided win. Tampa Bay's defense also now ranks third in the league in yards allowed and has generated 10 sacks over its last two outings, the most recent one punctuated by Yaya Diaby's first career three-sack game. The Carolina game was the first of six for Tampa Bay this year against NFC South opponents, so the Bucs will be trying to turn a 1-0 start in the division into 2-0 on Sunday against Atlanta.

The Falcons have won three of the five starts quarterback Michael Penix has made since he sat out the first two weeks due to the knee injury he suffered last season, and in that span the team has averaged 31.0 points per game. Penix makes the most of his Big Three of offensive weapons: running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London and tight Kyle Pitts. Last Sunday, that group led the team to a win over the 49ers, who came into the contest with an unblemished 6-0 record. Penix threw three touchdown passes with out an interception, Robinson had 122 yards from scrimmage and both London and Pitts scored. The Falcons' defense also sacked Brock Purdy twice and forced four turnovers, sealing the game with an interception and a forced fumble on the 49ers' final two possessions and making a 29-20 decision hold up. Atlanta can match the Bucs' rushing attack with the fourth-ranked rush defense, which is keyed by a heavy rotation up front with Brandon Dorlus, Gervon Dexter, Maason Smith and LaCale London. The Falcons are a game ahead of the Bucs in the division standings at 3-4 and could take over first place with a win and a loss by the Panthers in Green Bay on Thursday night.

Here's how the Buccaneers and Falcons stack up against each other for Sunday's intra-divisional contest:

When Tampa Bay Has the Ball:

Buccaneers OffenseCategoryFalcons Defense
26th (296.9)Net Yards Per Game19th (337.3)
25th (4.76)Yards Per Play12th (5.58)
17th (23.1)Points Per Game20th (24.7)
3rd (146.4)Rushing Yards Per Game4th (88.9)
32nd (150.4)Passing Yards Per Game29th (255.6)
16th (38.3%)Third Down Percentage23rd (42.4%)
29th (10.73%)Sacks Per Pass Play22nd (5.94%)
28th (3.41%)Interception Percentage29th (1.05%)
21st (52.2%)Red Zone Touchdown Pct.t-20th (66.7%)

View pictures from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers practice during Week 8 of the 2026 NFL Season.

When Atlanta Has the Ball:

Falcons OffenseCategoryBuccaneers Defense
17th (337.3)Net Yards Per Game3rd (294.7)
12th (5.58)Yards Per Play8th (5.00)
10th (24.4)Points Per Game14th (21.6)
6th (139.9)Rushing Yards Per Game2nd (77.3)
23rd (197.4)Passing Yards Per Game14th (217.4)
20th (38.1%)Third Down Percentage9th (36.7%)
23rd (7.96%)Sacks Per Pass Play18th (6.50%)
29th (3.48%)Interception Percentage5th (3.25%)
t-8th (66.7%)Red Zone Touchdown Pct.11th (52.6%)

Advantage Buccaneers: Mid-Range Third Downs on Defense

The Buccaneers would appear to have an advantage overall on third downs when they are on defense Sunday, as they rank ninth in success rate allowed (36.4%) while the Falcons' offense ranks 20th (38.1%). However, the real opportunity for Tampa Bay's defense to take control and derail drives will be when the Falcons get into a third down needing four to six yards. That has been a particularly specialty for the Bucs' crew, as they have allowed a league-low 18.2% conversion rate on those types of third-down plays. Atlanta's offense, at the same time, ranks dead last in the NFL in converting third downs of that middle range, succeeding just 21.7% of the time.

Advantage Falcons: Passing Efficiency on Defense

Atlanta's defense ranks 29th in passing yards allowed per game, at 255.6, but that has been in large part due to volume. Teams have had a hard time running against the Falcons, and most of their games have been high-scoring affairs. On a per-play basis, the Falcons' pass defense looks a lot better, allowing 6.26 yards per dropback, which is 13th best in the NFL. The mismatch comes in because while Atlanta has been good if not great in this category, Tampa Bay's offense has really struggled to pick up big gains in the passing game. In fact, after their 64-yard passing output in that win in Charlotte, the Bucs are now last in the NFL with an average of 5.14 yards per pass play. That could change as Baker Mayfield gets more comfortable in his return from a dislocated thumb, especially if the Falcons' defense wins the battle in the trenches when the Bucs try to run.

X-Factor: Points Off Turnovers

Tampa Bay is coming off its best game of the season in terms of getting takeaways and turning them into points, as they scored 20 points off four takeaways against the Panthers. That was double their previous high of 10 points off turnovers in their Week Five win at Dallas. Overall, though, the points have begun to add up and the Bucs are now fourth in the league overall with 43 points off turnovers. However, right behind them is Atlanta, which has scored 42 points off nine takeaways this season and is actually fourth in the average number of points scored off each turnover (4.67). The first battle on Sunday will be to see which defense, if either, can get some turnovers. After that, turning them into points could be the deciding factor.

Related Content

Latest Headlines

Single Game Tickets

Falcons vs. Buccaneers

Week 8

November 1

1:00 PM ET

Panthers  vs. Buccaneers

Week 12

November 30

8:15 PM ET

Chargers vs. Buccaneers

Week 13

December 6

1:00 PM ET

Saints vs. Buccaneers

Week 15

December 20

1:00 PM ET

Rams vs. Buccaneers

Week 17

January 3

Time TBD

Want more Bucs content from the official source? Add Buccaneers.com to your list of source preferences on Google today!

Advertising