The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will conclude a three-game homestand in Week Four with a visit from their old NFC Central foes, the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, October 4. The 0-3 Buccaneers urgently need to break into the win column, though they are still only one game back of the leaders in the NFC South standings. Tampa Bay's defense is coming off a mostly stellar outing against Kyler Murray and the Vikings but will be facing a Green Bay passing attack that can easily generate big plays with Jordan Love throwing to the trio of Christian Walker, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft. Green Bay fell to 1-2 with a prime-time Thursday night loss to Atlanta, 35-14, last Thursday night, allowing the Falcons to rack up just under 500 yards of offense.
Love ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards through Week Three and both Watson and Golden are in the top eight in receiving yards while combining for five touchdowns. The Packers have had a tough time running the football, however, in part due to starting tailback Josh Jacobs being unavailable due to a league suspension. Even without perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Micah Parsons in the lineup – he is still recovering from a torn ACL suffered late last season – Green Bay has been able to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, led by fourth-year player Lukas Van Ness. The Buccaneers, relatedly, have allowed a league-high 13 sacks. The Bucs are averaging 4.29 yards per carry and Bucky Irving is at 4.50 individually, which could improve important if the team is trying to take the pressure off rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels. Daniels will be making his first NFL start in place of Baker Mayfield, who dislocated his right thumb in the Week Three loss to Minnesota.
Here's how the Buccaneers and Packers stack up against each other for Sunday's critical matchup:
When Tampa Bay Has the Ball:
| Buccaneers Offense | Category | Packers Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 27th (273.3) | Net Yards Per Game | 21st (340.7) |
| 28th (4.71) | Yards Per Play | 12th (5.14) |
| 19th (20.7) | Points Per Game | 29th (50.0%) |
| t-23rd (94.3) | Rushing Yards Per Game | 28th (138.7) |
| 26th (185.0) | Passing Yards Per Game | 11th (202.0) |
| 27th (32.6%) | Third Down Percentage | 29th (50.0%) |
| 32nd (13.13%) | Sacks Per Pass Play | 11th (7.78%) |
| 24th (3.03%) | Interception Percentage | 15th (2.22%) |
| 30th (30.0%) | Red Zone Touchdown Pct. | 30th (83.3%) |
When Green Bay Has the Ball:
| Packers Offense | Category | Buccaneers Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 16th (315.3) | Net Yards Per Game | 6th (282.7) |
| 15th (5.26) | Yards Per Play | 9th (4.90) |
| 22nd (18.7) | Points Per Game | 23rd (26.3) |
| 32nd (48.7) | Rushing Yards Per Game | 2nd (76.0) |
| t-4th (266.7) | Passing Yards Per Game | 12th (206.7) |
| 32nd (27.8%) | Third Down Percentage | t-8th (35.7%) |
| 16th (6.45%) | Sacks Per Pass Play | 21st (6.38%) |
| 14th (1.61%) | Interception Percentage | 17th (2.13%) |
| 27th (41.7%) | Red Zone Touchdown Pct. | 5th (37.5%) |
Advantage Buccaneers: Run Defense
As noted earlier, the Packers have had trouble running the ball, ranking last in the NFL in both yards per game (48.7) and yards per carry (3.04). In addition to Jacobs' absence, Green Bay has also been hit by multiple injuries along the offensive line, most recently a patellar tendon tear for right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele that put him on injured reserve. The Packers have gone with a backfield committee of MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks and trade acquisition Kaleb Johnson but none have more than 68 yards or 3.6 yards per carry, and the team's longest run on the season is only 14 yards. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have continued a seasons-long trend of being one of the best defenses against the run in the NFL. They have allowed the fewest rushing yards of any team since Todd Bowles arrived in 2019 and this year they sit in second place in those rankings, allowing 76.0 yards per game. As potentially potent as the Green Bay passing game is, the Buccaneers will need to continue their stinginess against the ground game to keep the Packers from breaking out offensively.
Advantage Packers: Pass Rush
Green Bay's pass rush will surely ascend to a new level when Parsons is able to return, but it has been pretty good even without him, with a sacks-per-pass-play rate of 7.78% that ranks 11th in the NFL. Edge rusher Lukas Van Ness (2.5 sacks) and off-ball linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (2.0) have led the charge, and Van Ness has already logged seven "quick pressures" this season, one more than he had in all of 2025. The Buccaneers allowed six sacks to the blitz-heavy Vikings defense last Sunday, bringing their season total to 13, all absorbed by Mayfield. The Bucs' sacks-per-pass-play allowed rate of 13.13% ranks last in the NFL. The Buccaneers will be trying to provide better down-to-down protection for Daniels on Sunday to give him a chance to succeed in his debut start.
X-Factor: Jalon Daniels
Daniels is the obvious choice as the player or unit who is most likely to swing the game in one direction or another. The Buccaneers kept the undrafted rookie out of Kansas as their primary backup to Mayfield because they were extremely impressed both with his play in practice and preseason games and his poised and confident demeanor. Daniels has the arm talent to make any throw and the legs to extend plays and move the chains, and the Bucs are confident he's going to make a smooth entry into the starting job. Still, it is never clear until after the fact what to expect from a quarterback making his very first NFL start.
