The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished up the second "quarter" of their season with a 3-1 record with a 16-0 blanking of the Atlanta Falcons in Week Eight, and in each its their three wins the offense produced at least 241 rushing yards. That outsized ground-game production, capped in Week with a team-record 324 yards against Atlanta, has propelled the Buccaneers to the top spot in the league's rushing rankings, with 168.6. Tampa Bay also ranks second in yards per carry at 5.07, but the team's passing attack is last in the NFL in both yards per game (131.4) and yards per play. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has played two games since his return from a dislocated right thumb but only threw 14 passes in those two games combined; Mayfield says he's confident the Bucs' aerial production will be available when they need it. Tampa Bay's defense has started creating turnovers in bunches with 12 in the last four weeks, and in that span they swung their differential of points allowed off turnovers from -30 to +3. Cornerback Zyon McCollum has had an interception in each of the last two games and linebacker Alex Anzalone snared his second and third of the season against the Falcons.
The Chicago Bears have emerged as prime playoff contenders with a three-game winning streak that coincides with the return of quarterback Caleb Williams after he missed time with a hamstring injury. That run includes consecutive convincing wins over last year's two Super Bowl teams, the Patriots and the Seahawks. In Week Eight, the Bears doubled up the defending champs, 34-17, as Williams completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards, a touchdown and no picks and running back D'Andre Swift scored three rushing touchdowns to increase his league-leading total to 10. Chicago's rushing attack, producing 150.8 yards per game, is second only to the Buccaneers' ground game through eight weeks. The Bears' made tight end Colston Loveland and wideout Luther Burden their first two picks in last year's draft, and that is looking like a good strategy as those two have emerged as Williams' most trusted targets. Their top pick this year was safety Dillon Thieneman and he has played all over the field, leading the team with 47 tackles while adding 1.5 sacks, an interception and five passes defensed. The Bears' defense has curiously allowed the seventh fewest net yards per game but the second most yards per play so far this season.
Here's how the Buccaneers and Bears stack up against each other for Sunday's battle under the lights:
When Tampa Bay Has the Ball:
| Buccaneers Offense | Category | Bears Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 25th (300.0) | Net Yards Per Game | 7th (305.8) |
| 25th (4.83) | Yards Per Play | 31st (6.01) |
| 20th (22.3) | Points Per Game | 8th (20.0) |
| 1st (168.6) | Rushing Yards Per Game | 4th (86.8) |
| 32nd (131.4) | Passing Yards Per Game | 14th (219.0) |
| 19th (38.4%) | Third Down Percentage | 1st (23.8%) |
| 30th (11.06%) | Sacks Per Pass Play | 2nd (9.65%) |
| 29th (3.37%) | Interception Percentage | 15th (2.19%) |
| t-26th (50.0%) | Red Zone Touchdown Pct. | 15th (57.1%) |
View pictures from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers practice during Week 9 of the 2026 NFL Season.

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Running Backs Coach Skip Peete of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Running Back Bucky Irving #7 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Josiah Trotter/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Running Back Kenny Gainwell #1 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Wide Receiver Kameron Johnson #19 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Lineman A'Shawn Robinson #91 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Wide Receiver Tez Johnson #15 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Lineman A'Shawn Robinson #91 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Wide Receiver Tez Johnson #15 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Lineman A'Shawn Robinson #91 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Wide Receiver Tez Johnson #15 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Lineman A'Shawn Robinson #91 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Wide Receiver Tez Johnson #15 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches #56 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Defensive Lineman A'Shawn Robinson #91 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Wide Receiver Tez Johnson #15 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Running Back Bucky Irving #7 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Linebacker Alex Anzalone #34 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Inside Linebacker SirVocea Dennis #8 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Wide Receivers Coach Bryan McClendon of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Wide Receiver Chris Godwin Jr. #14 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Wide Receiver Chris Godwin Jr. #14 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Wide Receiver Tez Johnson #15 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Wide Receiver Kameron Johnson #19 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Wide Receiver Chris Godwin Jr. #14 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Inside Linebacker SirVocea Dennis #8 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Defensive Quality Control Coach Joey Fitzgerald of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Tackle Vita Vea #50 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches #56 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Lineman Elijah Simmons #92 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Outside Linebacker Rueben Bain Jr. #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Outside Linebacker Yasir Holmes #57 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Outside Linebacker Al-Quadin Muhammad #97 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Outside Linebacker Al-Quadin Muhammad #97 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Back Keionte Scott #22 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Back Keionte Scott #22 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cornerback Zyon McCollum #27 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Cornerback Benjamin Morrison #21 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cornerback Jacob Parrish #25 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Cornerback Kevin Knowles #38 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cornerback Brandon Johnson #28 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Cornerback Ayden Garnes #24 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Tight End Cade Otton #88 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Wide Receiver Tez Johnson #15 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Lineman Jayson Jones #93 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Defensive Line Coach Marcus West of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Defensive Tackle Vita Vea #50 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Lineman Jayson Jones #93 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Defensive Line Coach Marcus West of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Defensive Lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches #56 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Offensive Tackle Luke Goedeke #67 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Offensive Tackle Paul Rubelt #76 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Quarterback Jalon Daniels #10 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Pass Game Coordinator Coach George Edwards of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Safety Tykee Smith #23 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Linebacker Alex Anzalone #34 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Linebacker Alex Anzalone #34 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. #31 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Running Back Kenny Gainwell #1 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Running Back Kenny Gainwell #1 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Offensive Quality Control Coach Blaine Stewart of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Back Keionte Scott #22 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cornerback Jacob Parrish #25 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Linebacker Josiah Trotter #45 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Linebacker Alex Anzalone #34 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Tackle Vita Vea #50 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Defensive Lineman Elijah Simmons #92 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Defensive Lineman Calijah Kancey #94 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Defensive Lineman DeMonte Capehart #90 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches #56 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Lineman Elijah Simmons #92 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Defensive Lineman A'Shawn Robinson #91 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Head Coach Todd Bowles of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Running Back Bucky Irving #7 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Running Back Bucky Irving #7 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Wide Receiver Chris Godwin Jr. #14 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Wide Receiver Tez Johnson #15 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Running Back Bucky Irving #7 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Running Back Bucky Irving #7 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Running Back Bucky Irving #7 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Running Back Kenny Gainwell #1 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Lineman A'Shawn Robinson #91 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Defensive Lineman Calijah Kancey #94 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Offensive Tackle Benjamin Chukwuma #70 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Cornerback Kevin Knowles #38 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Outside Linebacker Rueben Bain Jr. #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Guard Henry Lutovsky #61 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TAMPA, FL - November 04, 2026 - Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during practice at AdventHealth Training Center. Photo By Tori Richman/Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When Chicago Has the Ball:
| Bears Offense | Category | Buccaneers Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd (387.3) | Net Yards Per Game | 3rd (285.9) |
| 14th (5.39) | Yards Per Play | 5th (4.92) |
| 8th (26.8) | Points Per Game | 5th (18.9) |
| 2nd (150.8) | Rushing Yards Per Game | 2nd (80.0) |
| 13th (236.5) | Passing Yards Per Game | 9th (205.9) |
| 5th (44.4%) | Third Down Percentage | 5th (32.0%) |
| 17th (6.91%) | Sacks Per Pass Play | 24th (5.93%) |
| 12th (1.82%) | Interception Percentage | 1st (4.44%) |
| 17th (58.8%) | Red Zone Touchdown Pct. | t-10th (50.0%) |
Advantage Buccaneers: Second-Down Rushing
Tampa Bay's rushing attack, obviously, has been good in nearly every situation this season, particularly over the last four weeks. One specific situation in which it has really shined has been on second down, as the team has averaged 5.81 yards when running on that down. That is more impressive because the Bucs have had a high volume of second down runs – 83, which also ranks second in the league. Those second-down successes have created a high number of short third downs and the Bucs rank sixth in the league in conversion rate on third-and-short (1-3 yards). And, of course, when their runs have worked on first down to the tune of four-plus yards, those second-down runs often skip third down entirely. Meanwhile, the Bears' has allowed 5.29 yards on second-down runs, the fourth-worst mark in the league.
Advantage Bears: Third Downs
The most impressive statistic generated so far by the Bears' defense is its 23.8% success rate allowed on third downs. Though that number will likely provide difficult to maintain through the entire 2026 campaign, if the Bears can do it they will have the best defensive third-down rate in a season since the 1970 merger. In opposition, Tampa Bay's third-down conversion rate on offense has been below average, coming in 19th at 38.4%. On the flip side, the Bears' offense has been very good on third downs as well, converging 44.4% of their chances to rank fifth in the NFL. At least in this regard the Buccaneers make it a strength-on-strength matchup, as they also rank fifth on defense, allowing a success rate of 32.0%, which was helped significantly by holding the Falcons to zero conversions in 12 tries.
X-Factor: Ball Control
The Buccaneers have specifically designed game plans in recent weeks meant to tilt the time of possession in their favor in order to keep the opposing offense off the field. The team's 56 run plays against Atlanta were largely the result of the weather conditions, but the week before in Carolina the Buccaneers were trying to play keep away from what had been an explosive Panthers offense by running it 49 times. It worked, of course, and the Buccaneers currently rank third in average time of possession at 32:05 per game. The issue on Sunday night? The Bears have the best time of possession average in the league, at 35:27. The Bucs and Bears are first in second in the NFL in rushing yards but as noted above Chicago's defense has produced that incredible 23.8% third-down rate noted above. The Bears' ability to get off the field and have the ball for roughly 10 more minutes a game than their opponents explains the rather bizarre combination of stats that has them ranked seven in fewest yards allowed per game (305.8) but second worst in yards allowed per play (6.01).































