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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Battle for Ball Control | Bucs-Bears Tale of the Tape

The Bears and Buccaneers are two of the top teams in the NFL in terms of controlling the clock this season, due in part to the top two rushing attacks in the season, plus Chicago's stingy third-down defense and the Bucs' takeaways

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished up the second "quarter" of their season with a 3-1 record with a 16-0 blanking of the Atlanta Falcons in Week Eight, and in each its their three wins the offense produced at least 241 rushing yards. That outsized ground-game production, capped in Week with a team-record 324 yards against Atlanta, has propelled the Buccaneers to the top spot in the league's rushing rankings, with 168.6. Tampa Bay also ranks second in yards per carry at 5.07, but the team's passing attack is last in the NFL in both yards per game (131.4) and yards per play. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has played two games since his return from a dislocated right thumb but only threw 14 passes in those two games combined; Mayfield says he's confident the Bucs' aerial production will be available when they need it. Tampa Bay's defense has started creating turnovers in bunches with 12 in the last four weeks, and in that span they swung their differential of points allowed off turnovers from -30 to +3. Cornerback Zyon McCollum has had an interception in each of the last two games and linebacker Alex Anzalone snared his second and third of the season against the Falcons.

The Chicago Bears have emerged as prime playoff contenders with a three-game winning streak that coincides with the return of quarterback Caleb Williams after he missed time with a hamstring injury. That run includes consecutive convincing wins over last year's two Super Bowl teams, the Patriots and the Seahawks. In Week Eight, the Bears doubled up the defending champs, 34-17, as Williams completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards, a touchdown and no picks and running back D'Andre Swift scored three rushing touchdowns to increase his league-leading total to 10. Chicago's rushing attack, producing 150.8 yards per game, is second only to the Buccaneers' ground game through eight weeks. The Bears' made tight end Colston Loveland and wideout Luther Burden their first two picks in last year's draft, and that is looking like a good strategy as those two have emerged as Williams' most trusted targets. Their top pick this year was safety Dillon Thieneman and he has played all over the field, leading the team with 47 tackles while adding 1.5 sacks, an interception and five passes defensed. The Bears' defense has curiously allowed the seventh fewest net yards per game but the second most yards per play so far this season.

Here's how the Buccaneers and Bears stack up against each other for Sunday's battle under the lights:

When Tampa Bay Has the Ball:

Buccaneers OffenseCategoryBears Defense
25th (300.0)Net Yards Per Game7th (305.8)
25th (4.83)Yards Per Play31st (6.01)
20th (22.3)Points Per Game8th (20.0)
1st (168.6)Rushing Yards Per Game4th (86.8)
32nd (131.4)Passing Yards Per Game14th (219.0)
19th (38.4%)Third Down Percentage1st (23.8%)
30th (11.06%)Sacks Per Pass Play2nd (9.65%)
29th (3.37%)Interception Percentage15th (2.19%)
t-26th (50.0%)Red Zone Touchdown Pct.15th (57.1%)

View pictures from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers practice during Week 9 of the 2026 NFL Season.

When Chicago Has the Ball:

Bears OffenseCategoryBuccaneers Defense
3rd (387.3)Net Yards Per Game3rd (285.9)
14th (5.39)Yards Per Play5th (4.92)
8th (26.8)Points Per Game5th (18.9)
2nd (150.8)Rushing Yards Per Game2nd (80.0)
13th (236.5)Passing Yards Per Game9th (205.9)
5th (44.4%)Third Down Percentage5th (32.0%)
17th (6.91%)Sacks Per Pass Play24th (5.93%)
12th (1.82%)Interception Percentage1st (4.44%)
17th (58.8%)Red Zone Touchdown Pct.t-10th (50.0%)

Advantage Buccaneers: Second-Down Rushing

Tampa Bay's rushing attack, obviously, has been good in nearly every situation this season, particularly over the last four weeks. One specific situation in which it has really shined has been on second down, as the team has averaged 5.81 yards when running on that down. That is more impressive because the Bucs have had a high volume of second down runs – 83, which also ranks second in the league. Those second-down successes have created a high number of short third downs and the Bucs rank sixth in the league in conversion rate on third-and-short (1-3 yards). And, of course, when their runs have worked on first down to the tune of four-plus yards, those second-down runs often skip third down entirely. Meanwhile, the Bears' has allowed 5.29 yards on second-down runs, the fourth-worst mark in the league.

Advantage Bears: Third Downs

The most impressive statistic generated so far by the Bears' defense is its 23.8% success rate allowed on third downs. Though that number will likely provide difficult to maintain through the entire 2026 campaign, if the Bears can do it they will have the best defensive third-down rate in a season since the 1970 merger. In opposition, Tampa Bay's third-down conversion rate on offense has been below average, coming in 19th at 38.4%. On the flip side, the Bears' offense has been very good on third downs as well, converging 44.4% of their chances to rank fifth in the NFL. At least in this regard the Buccaneers make it a strength-on-strength matchup, as they also rank fifth on defense, allowing a success rate of 32.0%, which was helped significantly by holding the Falcons to zero conversions in 12 tries.

X-Factor: Ball Control

The Buccaneers have specifically designed game plans in recent weeks meant to tilt the time of possession in their favor in order to keep the opposing offense off the field. The team's 56 run plays against Atlanta were largely the result of the weather conditions, but the week before in Carolina the Buccaneers were trying to play keep away from what had been an explosive Panthers offense by running it 49 times. It worked, of course, and the Buccaneers currently rank third in average time of possession at 32:05 per game. The issue on Sunday night? The Bears have the best time of possession average in the league, at 35:27. The Bucs and Bears are first in second in the NFL in rushing yards but as noted above Chicago's defense has produced that incredible 23.8% third-down rate noted above. The Bears' ability to get off the field and have the ball for roughly 10 more minutes a game than their opponents explains the rather bizarre combination of stats that has them ranked seven in fewest yards allowed per game (305.8) but second worst in yards allowed per play (6.01).

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