The track was wet at Raymond James Stadium on Saturday evening, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers apparently had a "mudder" in their racing stable while the visiting Carolina Panthers did not. The Buccaneers' 140 to 19 edge in rushing yards in a game played largely in a driving rainstorm was the difference in a 16-14 decision for the home team that kept Tampa Bay's playoff hopes alive for at least one more day.
The win allowed the Buccaneers to forge a tie with the Panthers at the top of the NFC South with identical 8-9 records, and if a tiebreaker is eventually applied between those two teams it would go in Tampa Bay's favor. However, if the Atlanta Falcons win on Sunday it would become a three-way tie atop the division and the first tiebreaker in that scenario would go in Carolina's direction. Thus, the Buccaneers need a win by the New Orleans Saints in Atlanta on Sunday to clinch a record fifth consecutive NFC South crown.
"That's all we can do," said Head Coach Todd Bowles. "We can't wait 'til tomorrow if we don't win today. It was a gutsy performance, the guys fought hard, it was a hard-fought game on both sides. We came out with one and we gave ourselves a chance – that's all we can ask for."
Tampa Bay scored a touchdown on its opening drive for the third week in a row but this time was able to make it stand up with the addition of three Chase McLaughlin field goals. The Buccaneers had a nine-point lead and the football at Carolina's 20-yard line with five minutes left in regulation but a blocked field goal and a stunning 40-yard completion by Bryce Young to Tetairoa McMillan on fourth-and-eight allowed the Panthers to make it a game on Jalen Coker's eight-yard touchdown catch. After that, the Buccaneers needed to kill the final 2:27 and the Panthers' three timeouts to seal the win. A rollout 20-yard pass from Baker Mayfield to TE Cade Otton on third-and-four from the Bucs' 35 at the two-minute warning was the key to depriving Carolina of one more reasonable scoring chance.
"In that situation, if it's wide-open throw it," said Mayfield. "If not, try to run for it or take a short sack to keep the clock rolling. Cade did a good job getting over there quick for me to get it to him and he took care of the rest."
Otton was one of the Buccaneers' offensive stars of the night, catching a team-leading seven passes for a season-high 94 yards and Tampa Bay's only touchdown. That score was an 18-yard seam pass that capped Tampa Bay's first drive of the game as Tampa Bay broke out to a 10-point lead and never trailed in the game.
"Cade is our reliable guy – doesn't get a lot of credit, does a ton of the dirty work, and today was one of those days he got a lot of targets and took advantage of them," said Mayfield. "Him staying alive in scramble drills, obviously the touchdown was a great play by him, being able to hold onto the ball through contact. Cade just does everything the right way. We're lucky to have him."
Carolina did trim that lead to three points in the second quarter on a 19-yard drive set up by the Buccaneers' only turnover of the evening, an interception by LB Christian Rozeboom off Baker Mayfield in Buccaneers territory. Young capped the three-play drive with an eight-yard scoring toss to TE Tommy Tremble as part of a 266-yard passing day. The Bucs did tack on one more field goal just before halftime following an interception by rookie CB Jacob Parrish.
"Obviously, the turnover happened," said Bowles of Rozeboom's pick. "Pouring down rain, situationally you don't want to throw that pass in that situation in a [torrential] downpour and we had a 10-0 lead. You're playing field-position ball right there. So we held strong and we played the next play and we got past it and we came up with some turnovers ourselves."
Mayfield completed 16 of 22 passes for 203 yards, one touchdown, one interception and a 97.3 passer rating and also ran four times for 31 yards and several key first downs. He was supported by a rushing attack that got consistent push and set up RB Bucky Irving for 85 yards on 26 carries.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's defensive front, which welcomed back DL Calijah Kancey after a 14-game absence, controlled the line of scrimmage throughout the evening and held the Panthers to 19 yards on 14 carries, with a long run of five yards. Standout RB Rico Dowdle gained just 10 yards on seven totes.
"We did a very good job of controlling the line of scrimmage," said Bowles. "[S Antoine] Winfield had a lot to do with that, coming off the edge, pushing the ball one way. But those guys really did a good job of playing gap-control. It was the first time a long time that we just played the way we were supposed to up front without giving up a big play in the run game.
"Kancey's a big part of that. When he came back to practice this week, everything picked up. … Him coming back, from an energy standpoint, really took the practice to another level and it carried over in the game."
Parrish's second-quarter pick was the Buccaneers' first defensive takeaway since Parrish's fumble recovery against Atlanta in Week 15, and it halted a streak of six straight turnovers that had gone in the opposition's favor. The Bucs ended up winning the turnover battle, 3-1, and are 6-2 this season when they are on the right side of that ledger. In addition, Tampa Bay finished the regular season with a 6-3 record in games decided by three points or less, playing more such contests in 2025 than in any other season in franchise history.
Carolina had a chance to trim Tampa Bay's lead to two points earlier in the fourth quarter but the drive ended on a Dowdle fumble that was recovered by LB Lavonte David at the Buccaneers' 24-yard line with 11 minutes left. The Buccaneers' offense then mounted a long drive that drained six key minutes off the clock, though it ended in CB Chau Wade-Smith's block of McLaughlin's 38-yard field goal attempt.
"It goes back to [that drive], taking seven minutes off the clock," said Mayfield. "Obviously, we didn't end up with points, but that's a back-breaker. And so credit to the offensive line – in conditions like that when we knew we were running it, for them to still be able to control the line of scrimmage, and that's a good [Carolina] front. We leaned on those guys and they took care of us."
The fumble recovery was the 21st of David's career, which leads all active NFL players and only adds to his incredible resume. He led the team with six tackles, in the process tying Hall of Famer Derrick Brooks for the franchise's all-time lead in that category (utilizing totals compiled by Statspass), at 1,714 each. The Buccaneers' defense did not produce any sacks but did hold Carolina to one conversion in eight third-down attempts and a total of 285 yards on the day.
David and Brooks could end up in that tie through all franchise history if the former chooses to retire after his 14th season. Whether or not that season is over remains to be seen, and the Bucs are powerless to do anything but watch on Sunday and hope for a winning effort by the Saints.
"That part's disappointing, but we're here," said Mayfield. "You can't go back and change anything. That was the focus this week: Control today and see where the chips fall. So we did that – team win, and we'll all be pulling for New Orleans tomorrow."
The Bucs got the ball first after Carolina won the coin toss and elected to defer. Sean Tucker fielded a bouncing kickoff cleanly but was stopped at the Bucs' 26-yard line. Irving got the ball on the first play going left and then cut it back up the middle for a gain of nine. Another Irving run was good for three and first downs, and then Mike Evans ran and out to the right and slid to the ground to make a 13-yard catch. Two more Irving runs made it third-and-two at the Carolina 41, and he got the ball on third-down, too, lowering his shoulder to power through contact for four more. Mayfield's second dropback didn't result in a pass but rather a scramble in which the quarterback didn't slide, instead absorbing hard contact at the end of a nine-yard gain. A quick pass to Otton in the left flat made it first down at the 18, and Mayfield went right back to his tight end on the last play of the drive. Otton ran vertical route out of the left slot and Mayfield zipped him a perfect pass caught right as he reached the goal line.
Tampa Bay 7, Carolina 0 – 9:31 remaining in the first quarter
The Panthers ran on first down and NT Vita Vea swallowed up Dowdle for no gain; however, rookie DL Elijah Roberts was flagged for unnecessary roughness at the end of the play and the net was 15 yards to the midfield stripe. Dowdle got the ball again on the next snap but immediately slipped on the wet turf for a loss of two. A short pass to RB Chuba Hubbard only got those two yards back, and Young's third-down pass to WR Xavier Legette on a dig over the middle was incomplete. The resulting punt bounced into the end zone for a touchback.
A Rachaad White run and a quick-hitter to Otton out to the right left the Bucs in a third-and-four, but with a free blitzer in his face Mayfield was able to get off a deep lob to Evans for a gain of 21. Two plays later, Irving caught an outlet pass and out-raced two defenders to the right edge to pick up 13 yards to the Carolina 39. An end-around to WR Tez Johnson was good for five, and Mayfield scrambled to get past the sticks, lowering his shoulder to power through CB Mike Jackson. In addition, Jackson picked up a 15-yard penalty at the end for taunting, putting the ball at Carolina's 13. A scrambling broken play on third down led to a pass in TE Payne Durham's direction in the end zone but the ball was just out of reach. Another long and winding scramble by Mayfield on third down led to a desperation pass to a well-covered Emeka Egbuka, and it was incomplete. McLaughlin finished the drive with a 29-yard field goal.
Tampa Bay 10, Carolina 0 – 1:57 remaining in the first quarter
After another touchback put the call at the Carolina 35, Young used a play-action rollout left to find WR Brycen Tremayne for a gain of 20. The Panthers false-started before the next snap to move the ball back to the 50-yard line, a tight end screen to TE Mitchell Evans got those five back, and OLB Yaya Diaby dropped Dowdle after a two-yard gain to conclude the first quarter. The Panthers faced a third-and-eight to start the second period and Young's pass to WR Tetairoa McMillan on a slant was incomplete. The Panthers left the offense on the field on fourth-and-eight but only in an attempt to induce a jump offside, and the result was a delay of game penalty and a punt that was downed at the Bucs' six.
Irving went up the middle for three yards on first down, but a second-down pass in his direction was off his hands. On third-and-seven, Mayfield had time to locate WR Jalen McMillan down the right numbers and he hit him for a gain of 11. Three plays later, it was another third-and-seven, and this time the play went bad for the home team. Mayfield thought he had a lane to Egbuka down the left numbers but Rozeboom was ready to slide into that lane and pick it off, returning the turnover to the Bucs' 19. A pass to McMillan on a crossing route made it first-and-goal at the nine, and the Bucs strung out a run by Hubbard left, leading to a gain of just one. On the next play, Young waited patiently for TE Tommy Tremble to break wide open out to the right and hit him for the eight-yard score.
Tampa Bay 10, Carolina 7 – 10:50 remaining in the second quarter
Sean Tucker fumbled on the ensuing kickoff but the Bucs were able to maintain possession at the bottom of a big scrum, though a holding call forced them to start at the 15-yard line. LB Trevis Gipson run-blitzed off the right edge and hit Irving as soon as he got the ball for a loss of four. Irving got those four back on a second-down run up the gut and a late-developing screen to White was blocked to perfection to produce 11 yards and a first down. Two plays later, another fine catch-and-run by White left the Bucs in a third-and-three at their 33, and Mayfield took off on another signature third-down scramble, pump-faking to elude a defender and get 11 to the 44. Two broken plays, one which resulted in a five-yard sack after the ball slipped out of Mayfield's hands, made it third-and-16 and a handoff to White was good for just five. The Bucs punted for the first time and return man Trevor Etienne was tackled at the Carolina 17 with 4:21 left in the half.
Dowdle got the ball on first down but ran into a wall and picked up just one, but on second down Young ran around long enough to find McMillan for a gain of 14. WR Jimmy Horn Jr. found an open spot in the zone near the left sideline and caught a 15-yard pass to the Carolina 47. A four-yard run took the ball just across midfield and brought on the two-minute warning. After the short pause, Young was pressured by a blitzing Winfield into an incompletion. On third down, Young threw towards McMillan on the left sideline but Parrish broke quickly on the ball and cut in front of the receiver to intercept the pass at the Bucs' 42.
Starting with 1:51 on the clock and all three timeouts, the Bucs gave it to Irving on first down and he got a quick seven up the middle. However, a Tucker run lost two, making it third-and-five. Mayfield scrambled all over the backfield and up to the line of scrimmage before firing off a sidearm pass to Otton, who got to the Carolina 31 with 18 seconds left in the half. An Irving run got seven and the Bucs used their first timeout at the 13-second mark, followed by another run down to the 20 and another timeout. A third Irving run took it to the 18 and the field goal unit took the field, with McLaughlin drilling a 36-yarder for a 13-7 lead.
Tampa Bay 13, Carolina 7 – 0:02 remaining in the second quarter
A touchback and a kneel-down brought the first half to a close.
Carolina got the ball first in the second half, starting at its 35 after a touchback. A Dowdle run started the drive with a gain of four, and two plays later the Panthers faced a third-and-two. A quick out to WR Jalen Coker only got a yard but Carolina went for it on fourth-and-one from their 44. An underneath handoff out of the shotgun to Hubbard was good enough to keep the drive moving, as it gained three. Pressure by Roberts forced Young to dirt the ball on first down, but Young scrambled up the middle and threw on the run to McMillan down the middle for a pickup of 19 yards to the Bucs' 34. A swing pass out left to Dowdle was eventually ruled a backward pass and a loss of seven, and Young's next pass was incomplete. After a short pass to Hubbard, the Panthers let rookie K Ryan Fitzgerald try a 54-yard field goal and he hit it short.
That gave the ball back to the Bucs at their own 44 and Irving got it again for a four-yard tote up the middle. However a sack by S Tre'von Moehrig put the Bucs into a third-and-10. Mayfield hit Otton over the middle for eight yards and the Bucs left the offense on the field. Carolina's defense didn't bite and the Bucs took a delay of game before punting, with the ball fair caught at the Panthers' six.
Hubbard got the ball on first down but Diaby stood him up for a loss of one, but an illegal contact penalty on LB Lavonte David gave Carolina a new set of downs at the 11. David joined a blitz on second down but Young got good protection and completed a 13-yard sideline pass to Tremble. Two Hubbard runs made it third-and-two at the Carolina 32 and an McMillan drew an offensive pass interference call to erase a big catch downfield. Great coverage downfield on third-and-long eventually led to Young throwing the ball away and a Carolina punt. Kam Johnson fair caught the kick at the Bucs' 31.
Mayfield faked a handoff and rolled left on first down, hitting Egbuka for a gain of eight and Irving took it between the tackles to the 42 for a first down. Two more Irving totes moved the sticks again and got the ball across midfield. Mayfield scrambled out of trouble on first down and threw on the run to Otton, who had turned his route upfield. The pass was incomplete but it drew a pass interference flag on S Nick Scott, putting the ball at the Carolina 35. Tucker got a handoff on first down but lost a yard, then gained three back on second down. After a break to flip sides after the end of the third quarter, Mayfield dropped back but couldn't find an open man, eventually scrambling for three to set up a 48-yard field goal try. McLaughlin drilled it to give the Buccaneers a nine-point lead.
Tampa Bay 16, Carolina 7 – 14:12 remaining in the fourth quarter
Another touchback put the Panthers at their 35 again, and a short pass to Coker was stopped by David after a gain of three. On second down, Young swung a pass out to Dowdle, who just escaped a tackle in the backfield and then rumbled for 25 yards to the Bucs' 37. A blitz got to Young quickly on second down, leading to an errant pass, but Young found Legette downfield on third down for a first down at the 20. On the net play, Dowdle took a handoff and appeared to be trying to execute a pitch back to Young for a flea-flicker. However, Dowdle slipped and lost control of the ball, with David recovering at the Bucs' 29 with 11 minutes left.
After a four-yard Irving run, Mayfield rolled right and threw on the run to Tez Johnson down the sideline for a gain of 17 to the midfield stripe. Two plays later, WR Chris Godwin ran a short curl on the left and Mayfield drilled it into his stomach for an eight yard gain and a first down at the Carolina 39. Two snaps after that, a tight end screen to Otton worked to perfection, leading to a gain of 12 to the 25. After an Otton false start, White ran for seven yards on first down and three on second down. On third-and-five, Mayfield scrambled for a very long time before eventually getting it to Otton right on the sideline for a gain of four. However, the Panthers challenged the ruling of a catch and it was overturned, leading to McLaughlin's 38-yard field goal attempt. This one was blocked, keeping the Bucs' lead at nine points with five minutes to play.
The Panthers went to a hurry-up, with Young a five-yard pass to Legette and then a 17-yarder to Tremble that stopped the clock at 4:36. The Bucs smelled out a screen on the next snap and Vea dragged Dowdle down for a loss of five. Pressure on the next play led to a throwaway and on third down Tremayne was flipped down by S Tykee Smith after a gain of seven. Forced to go for it on fourth-and-seven, Young threw downfield while falling away and it found McMillan all the way down at the eight. The next pass was thrown away, stopping the clock at 2:31, but Young then hit Coker near the left sideline in the end zone for the eight-yard score.
Tampa Bay 16, Carolina 14 – 2:27 remaining in the fourth quarter
Tucker got the ensuing kickoff back out to the Bucs' 29. Irving got three yards on first down and the Panthers used their first timeout with 2:17 left. Another three-yard tote and a timeout made it third-and-four with 2:12 left. On third down, Mayfield faked a handoff, rolled right and threw on the run to Otton, who easily got the first down and a lot more, picking up 20 to the Carolina 45. That brought on the two-minute warning. Three more Irving runs killed Carolina's last timeout and took the clock down to 26. Riley Dixon punted from the Panthers' 44 with all 11 defenders coming after the kick. Dixon dropped a perfect bouncer that was downed at the three-yard line with 18 ticks left on the clock.
With most of the Bucs' defenders playing very deep, Young threw to Coker for an 18-yard gain but the clock continued to run until the offense was able to spike the bal. with three seconds left. All that was left for Carolina was a desperation pitch-around play that technically ended in a turnover, as CB Benjamin Morrison fell on the ball after the last pitch landed on the ground.
