Here at Buccaneers.com we've been producing NFL mock drafts on a weekly basis since February. Most recently, Staff Writer/Reporter Brianna Dix, Buccaneers.com Contributor Gabriel Kahaian and I put our heads together for one final collaborative mock posted today, just hours before the real thing was due to begin. All of which makes us one of approximately three billion outlets dipping their toes into the mock draft pool.
Yes, they're everywhere, and they're addictive. (And most of them will prove to be about 10-15% correct.) This year, I decided to record the results of a lot of those mock drafts to see what trends might emerge in regards to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' approach to their first-round selection. I began in early January and ended up with 305 recorded mocks, including a handful that just dropped today. I thought it might be instructive, or at least entertaining, to look at some of the trends and themes that this collection of mock drafts revealed, now that prediction time is giving way to the actual picks by actual NFL executives.
A few notes on the methodology here: I stuck to the more well-known outlets, such as ESPN, CBS Sports, NFL.com, etc., though many of these outlets had multiple analysts posting mocks. I did not use ones from local papers in the various NFL cities, or ones posted by team websites. Since many of these analysts posted multiple versions of their mock drafts over the course of the last four months, I did include each new one, but only if their pick for the Buccaneers had changed since their previous mock.
So what do the assembled mocks tell us about the prevailing opinions regarding the Buccaneeers' draft plans? Here are some notes:
- Akheem Mesidor was the most popular pick, with 59 of the 305 drafts landing on the dynamic edge rusher from Miami. This has been particularly prevalent as the draft has gotten closer; 23 of those 59 Mesidor predictions occurred in the last nine days.
- Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq was a close second with 51 selections, and he has been a constant throughout the process while other prospects have waxed or waned on the prediction list. I recorded 10 Sadiq picks in January, eight in February, 14 in March and 19 in April.
- The next six most popular picks were Auburn edge Keldric Faulk (43), Texas A&M edge Cashius Howell (30), Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles (26), Penn State guard Olaivavega Ioane (18), Georgia linebacker C.J. Allen (15) and Tennessee cornerback Jermod McCoy (15).
- The Howell and Styles selections illustrate how public opinion on certain prospects shift over time. All of the Styles predictions occurred between January 3 and March 7, with only one coming after his supernova performance at the NFL Scouting Combine. Since then, he has widely been tabbed as a top 10 pick. All but three of the Howell picks occurred on or before March 4; he has since widely been viewed as a late-round selection.
- Sixteen of the 305 mock drafts predicted that the Buccaneers would trade back to later in the round before making a selection. Only two had the Bucs trading up. On April 15, CBS Sports' Tom Fornelli predicted a trade up to number seven to nab Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain. On April 20, NBC Sports' Chris Simms had the Bucs trading up to number 11 to get LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane.
- There was a lot of consensus about the Bucs' most likely targets and very few picks out of left field. There were only eight prospects who showed up as Tampa Bay's selection in just one of the 305 mock drafts: Texas Tech defensive lineman Lee Hunter, Toledo safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman, Washington wide receiver Denzel Boston, San Diego State cornerback Chris Johnson, Utah tackle Caleb Lomu, Florida defensive lineman Caleb Banks and South Carolina cornerback Brandon Cisse.
- As was the case last year, the prevailing opinion is that the Buccaneers will take a defensive player in Round One. Of the 305 charted mocks, only 85 gave the Bucs an offensive player, and 51 of those were Sadiq. Of course, that same prevailing opinion proved wrong last year when the Bucs selected Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka with the 19th pick.
