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Predicting a Major Award for Bucs in 2026 | Fourth of July Week Roundtables

Our annual series of Fourth of July debates continues as Brianna Dix, Gabriel Kahaian and Scott Smith make their cases as to what Buccaneer figures could reasonably win major NFL awards at the end of 2026

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Like fireworks stands that pop up all over town in the run-up to the Fourth of July, we here at Buccaneers.com are dropping Roundtable debates one after another in this week leading up to the celebration of the United States' 250th anniversary. Each day, Staff Writer/Reporter Brianna Dix, Buccaneers.com Contributor Gabe Kahaian and I are discussing one topic regarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their upcoming season and making predictions we hope will hit.

Today the topic is major awards. Mostly, that means the ones handed out each year by the Associated Press, such as Most Valuable Player and Defensive Player of the Year. We've widened the scope just a tad for this debate to allow awards given out by other outlets that are generally lumped in with the AP awards. A Buccaneer last won one of these in 2005, when running back Cadillac Williams was named Offensive Rookie of the Year, though Tom Brady just missed a few years ago, finishing second in the voting for NFL MVP in 2021. The major award won most often by Buccaneers in franchise history is Defensive Player of the Year award, which went to Lee Roy Selmon in 1979, Warren Sapp in 1999 and Derrick Brooks in 2002.

As you can see, these don't come along too often unless you have Brady, Peyton Manning or J.J. Watt on your roster. As such, these are low-odds propositions, but that's not going to stop us from trying. Each of us will be trying to make a realistic case for the possibility of a Buccaneer figure taking to the podium at the NFL Honors show next February.

Here is the full schedule for this week's Point-Counterpoint series:

Wednesday, July 1: Which Buccaneer could win a major NFL award in 2026?

Thursday, July 2: What specific statistical goal would you like to see the Bucs achieve in 2025?

Friday, July 3: What is your prediction for a surprising statistical achievement for one or more Buccaneers?

Since we are not going to be duplicating answers in any of these debates, order of selection matters, and today's order is me going first, Gabe second and Bri third. We'll rotate that order from one Roundtable to the next. I'll get us started with an award that hasn't been around long but probably should have been.

Scott Smith: T Tristan Wirfs, NFL Protector of the Year (Expert Panel)

This is a very new award but I think it counts as a major one, as it is presented at the NFL Honors show the week of the Super Bowl, along with MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and all that. It is decided by a panel of retired NFL offensive linemen, who place their votes based on five criteria: skill metrics (such as pass blocking win rate), impact, leadership, durability and strength of opponent. The inaugural Protector of the Year award was given out last year to the Chicago Bears' Joe Thuney.

They key here for Wirfs is going to be that fourth criteria, durability. He missed five games last year, mostly due to a cleanup procedure he had in his knee in midsummer that delayed his start to the season. But when he was able to start 16 games in 2024 he was named a first-teamAssociated Press All-Pro at left tackle. He also won that same exclusive honor in 2021 while playing right tackle. Wirfs is, in fact, the only player in league history to have been named a first-team All-Pro at both right and left tackle.

That All-Pro honor means the AP voters saw Wirfs as one of the two best tackles in the NFL those seasons. He was also a second-team All-Pro choice in 2022 and the only one of his six seasons he did not make the Pro Bowl was his 2020 rookie campaign. And he probably deserved it that year, too. My reasons for running down all of Wirfs honors is to hammer home that he is indisputably considered one of the best offensive linemen in the league. If one were to make a short list prior to this season of, say, the five most likely candidates to win this award, I would expect Wirfs to be on it.

Look also at that fifth entry in the list of criteria for the award. Wirfs will face all kinds of crazily talented pass rushers this season. That list includes Micah Parsons, T.J. Watt, Montez Sweat, Aidan Hutchinson, Trey Hendrickson and, of course, Myles Garrett. Cleveland recently traded Garrett, who broke the NFL's single-season sack record last year, to the Rams, which got him off the Bucs' schedule in Week Two. However, Tampa Bay will also play the Rams in Week 17, so it's just a challenge deferred, not eliminated.

Presuming Wirfs plays close to 17 games, I have no doubt he'll shine in the skill metrics category, simply because he always does. He has grown into a very clear leader for the Buccaneers with a powerful voice in the locker room. The Bucs will need to win, sure, for Wirfs to have a shot, but I'm counting on that happening. If we judge it by where they rank in the NFL among players at their position, Wirfs is probably the closest to the top of the list at his position of anyone on the Bucs' roster. That makes him a solid pick to win a major award, now that there is one that honors the men who do what he does.

Gabriel Kahaian: Jason Licht, NFL Executive of the Year (PFWA)

Since 1993, the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA) have handed out an Executive of the Year award to recognize top front-office performance and I believe General Manager Jason Licht is a major contender to earn the honor in 2026.

When you take a look at the past 10 winners of the award, you can see some similarities. Seven out of the past 10 winners' franchises have won their division and five of them held the No. 1 seed heading into the postseason. It is safe to say that having significant success on the field plays heavily into this award's equation, which makes sense. However, if you dig a little deeper, something interesting comes to the surface.

Although winning is important, it isn't everything when it comes to this award. The average conference playoff placement for the executive's team was about the No. 3 seed. There were even teams that finished fifth or lower in their conference. Why did those executives win the award if they were not among the best of the best? One such team was the New England Patriots, whom Bill Belichick guided to the playoffs in 2021, just one year after Tom Brady's departure. In 2018, Indianapolis Colts General Manager Chris Ballard won the award after the Colts improved from 4–12 the previous season to a playoff team. It seems that having a good story or overcoming an obstacle can help your chances at receiving this award. Now, where does Licht fit into all of this?

Throughout his career, Licht has consistently put this organization in a position to win. This offseason, he managed to do the same thing even with the Buccaneers entering a new era. Tampa Bay lost two franchise icons this offseason in Mike Evans and Lavonte David, one to free agency and one to retirement. Licht's decisions have helped build a roster capable of sustained success and competing among the NFC's elite teams. The foundation is set and the narrative is in place. The Bucs are set up for a big season in 2026 and Licht will deserve the title of Executive of the Year when the season is all said and done.

Brianna Dix: Baker Mayfield, NFL Most Valuable Player (AP)

After he took the league by storm last season prior to the team's Week Nine bye, MVP chants were ringing out in stadiums by the Bucs' faithful for Baker Mayfield. Mayfield will be entering a contract year in 2026 and playing with an added chip on his shoulder, amplifying his trademark moxie. I expect Mayfield to have a productive campaign, one that warrants the prestigious league MVP award.

He completed 343 of 543 attempts (63.2) for 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions last year. In Tampa Bay's, 38-35, win over the Seattle Seahawks in Week Five, Mayfield led his fourth game- winning drive and his fourth fourth-quarter comeback of the 2025 slate. He completed 29 of 33 passes (87.9%) for 379 and two touchdowns, with zero interceptions, earning a 134.7 passer rating in that matchup. His completion percentage and his 11.5 passing yards per attempt each led the NFL in Week Five, in addition to Mayfield finishing second in passing yards, fourth in passer rating and fourth in passing first downs (17). No player in league history has ever bettered Mayfield's completion percentage and yards per attempt in the same game with 30-plus attempts. Through Week Five, Mayfield was tied for third in touchdown passes (10), fourth in passing yards (1,283), fourth in touchdown-to-interception ratio (10.0) and ninth in passer rating (104.4).

Overall, he rushed 29 times on third downs in 2025, with 21 going for first downs (72.4% success rate). Mayfield rushed for a career-high 382 rushing yards in 2025 and ranked ninth in the NFL in rushing yards among quarterbacks. He led all quarterbacks in yards per rush at 6.9 (minimum of 50 rushes) and led all quarterbacks in first downs per rush (49.1% of his rushes went for a first down). He showcased his elite improvisation skills and ability to deliver strikes off-platform. Mayfield is the heartbeat of the Bucs' offense with a competitive disposition, speedy setup in the pocket and outstanding arm talent. He can layer the football to all three levels and I anticipate Mayfield having a career year in 2026.

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